2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,909
First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
Liberal | 42% | 42% | 43% | 43% | |
National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 45% | 45% | 46% | 46% |
Labor | 38.0 | 38% | 38% | 37% | 38% |
Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% |
Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 51% | 51% | 52% | 52% |
Labor | 50.1% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2011, 2011 outlook, EMC, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, political parties
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 7% | 28% | 34% | 14% | 4% | 13% |
The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 4% | 15% | 29% | 29% | 11% | 12% |
The Greens | 22% | 29% | 4% | 18% | 35% | 16% | 13% | 14% |
Respondents expect that 2011 is likely to be a good year for the Liberal Party (35% good/18% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (19%/40%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2010, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year – 2010 33% good/27% bad compared to 2011 35%/18%.
Also, although the Greens were assessed to have had a good 2010 (42% good/21% bad) expectations are not so positive for 2011 (22%/29%).
2011, 2011 outlook, Bob Brown, EMC, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, politicians, tony abbott
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 5% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 10% | 12% |
Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 5% | 24% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 3% | 18% | 35% | 21% | 9% | 14% |
Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 18% |
Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 31% | 18% | 12% | 19% |
There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.
Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to
-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).
2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,896
First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
Liberal | 38% | 42% | 42% | 41% | 42% |
National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 46% | 45% | 44% | 45% |
Labor | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
Greens | 12% | 8% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
Other/Independent | 10% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 6% |
2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 51% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
Labor | 52% | 49% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,858
First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
Liberal | 39% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 41% |
National | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
Total Lib/Nat | 41% | 44% | 45% | 45% | 44% |
Labor | 39% | 41% | 39% | 38% | 38% |
Greens | 9% | 8% | 10% | 10% | 11% |
Other/Independent | 10% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
Total Lib/Nat | 49% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
Labor | 51% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2PP, EMC, ER, essential report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,869
First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
Liberal | 39% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
National | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
Total Lib/Nat | 41% | 44% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
Labor | 40% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 38% |
Greens | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
Other/Independent | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
Labor | 52% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
2PP, EMC, ER, essential report, federal politics, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,907
First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
Liberal | 41% | 42% | 41% | 42% | 42% |
National | 2% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% |
Total Lib/Nat | 43% | 44% | 44% | 46% | 45% |
Labor | 38% | 40% | 41% | 39% | 39% |
Greens | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% | 10% |
Other/Independent | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
Total Lib/Nat | 50% | 50% | 50% | 51% | 51% |
Labor | 50% | 50% | 50% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
federal politics, Labor, Labor Party, Liberal, Liberal Party, two party preferred
NB. The data in the above graph is derived from our weekly first preference voting question. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.
* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.