Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 12, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Liberal

44%

46%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

49%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

34%

32%

32%

31%

Greens

11.8%

10%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

8%

9%

10%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

56%

56%

57%

Labor

50.1%

46%

44%

44%

43%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Mar 12, 2012

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

5 Jul

2010

20 Dec 2010

14 Mar

2011

14 June

12 Sept

17 Oct

14 Nov

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

Total approve

37%

37%

39%

38%

38%

39%

40%

36%

32%

35%

35%

36%

Total disapprove

37%

47%

39%

47%

48%

50%

51%

52%

53%

51%

53%

52%

Strongly approve

5%

8%

9%

7%

6%

8%

8%

6%

6%

7%

6%

7%

Approve

32%

29%

30%

31%

32%

31%

32%

30%

26%

28%

29%

29%

Disapprove

20%

23%

21%

24%

25%

23%

23%

26%

25%

25%

23%

23%

Strongly disapprove

17%

24%

18%

23%

23%

27%

28%

26%

28%

26%

30%

29%

Don’t know

26%

16%

22%

16%

15%

11%

9%

12%

14%

13%

12%

12%

Tony Abbott’s approval rating has changed little over the last month. 36% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.

70% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.

By gender – men 37% approve/54% disapprove, women 36% approve/49% disapprove.

Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Mar 12, 2012

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

 

5 Jul 2010

14 Mar

14 June

12 Sept

17 Oct

14 Nov

12 Dec

16 Jan 2012

13 Feb

12 Mar

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

53%

44%

41%

36%

38%

41%

39%

39%

41%

40%

84%

6%

74%

Tony Abbott

26%

33%

36%

40%

39%

36%

35%

36%

34%

37%

4%

76%

5%

Don’t know

21%

23%

24%

24%

23%

24%

26%

25%

25%

23%

12%

18%

21%

40% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 3%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +7% to +3% for Julia Gillard.

Both men and women prefer Julia Gillard 40%/37%.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 5, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,891 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Liberal

44%

45%

46%

47%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

48%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

33%

33%

32%

32%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

55%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

46%

45%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

More or Less Likely to Vote Labor

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total more likely

13%

33%

5%

18%

Total less likely

47%

21%

64%

38%

Much more likely

6%

17%

1%

5%

A little more likely

7%

16%

4%

13%

A little less likely

10%

11%

7%

16%

Much less likely

37%

10%

57%

22%

Makes no difference

34%

42%

30%

43%

Don’t know

5%

3%

1%

47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.

Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 27, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,908 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Liberal

44%

44%

45%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

47%

48%

49%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

33%

32%

Greens

11.8%

10%

10%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

54%

55%

56%

Labor

50.1%

46%

46%

45%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

Labor Leadership issue

Feb 27, 2012

Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Kevin Rudd

18%

27%

16%

21%

Julia Gillard

39%

28%

55%

16%

Other people in the Labor Party

23%

23%

21%

25%

The media

10%

16%

4%

25%

Don’t know

10%

7%

4%

12%

39% of respondents think that Julia Gillard is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party, 23% think other people in the Labor Party are responsible and 18% think Kevin Rudd is responsible. Only 10% think the media are mainly responsible.

A majority (55%) of Liberal/National voters think Julia Gillard is mainly responsible while Labor and Greens voters are fairly evenly divided between Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and other people in the Labor Party. 25% of Greens voters think that the media are responsible.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 20, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1042 respondents

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week

This week
Liberal 45% 44% 44% 45%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 48% 47% 47% 48%
Labor 38.0% 35% 33% 34% 33%
Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 11%
Other/Independent 6.6% 7% 9% 9% 9%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 55%
Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Comments »

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