12 March 2012, 120312, 3q, Carbon Pricing, climate change, environment, Essential Report, peter lewis, trends
It’s only months until a price on carbon takes affect so here are some clues from the polling to help Labor though the difficult times ahead.
12 March 2012, 120312, 2PP, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,902 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal |
44% |
46% |
47% |
46% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
56% |
57% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
44% |
43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
12 March 2012, 120312, Approval of Julia Gillard, Approval rating, Gillard, Julia Gillard, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
41% |
34% |
28% |
34% |
37% |
34% |
37% |
36% |
32% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
46% |
54% |
64% |
59% |
55% |
54% |
52% |
53% |
61% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
5% |
7% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
34% |
28% |
23% |
27% |
29% |
28% |
31% |
30% |
24% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
22% |
29% |
28% |
27% |
25% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
24% |
25% |
36% |
32% |
30% |
29% |
25% |
27% |
32% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
13% |
8% |
7% |
9% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
7% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has dropped substantially since last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 61% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -29 over the last 4 weeks. This is her lowest rating since September.
75% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).
By gender – men 32% approve/62% disapprove, women 32% approve/60% disapprove.
12 March 2012, 120312, Approval of Tony Abbott, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Opposition leader, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec 2010 |
14 Mar 2011 |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
36% |
32% |
35% |
35% |
36% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
47% |
48% |
50% |
51% |
52% |
53% |
51% |
53% |
52% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
6% |
6% |
7% |
6% |
7% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
31% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
30% |
26% |
28% |
29% |
29% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
24% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
23% |
27% |
28% |
26% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
29% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
16% |
15% |
11% |
9% |
12% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
12% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has changed little over the last month. 36% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.
70% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.
By gender – men 37% approve/54% disapprove, women 36% approve/49% disapprove.
12 March 2012, 120312, Better Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 Mar |
14 June |
12 Sept |
17 Oct |
14 Nov |
12 Dec |
16 Jan 2012 |
13 Feb |
12 Mar |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
44% |
41% |
36% |
38% |
41% |
39% |
39% |
41% |
40% |
84% |
6% |
74% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
33% |
36% |
40% |
39% |
36% |
35% |
36% |
34% |
37% |
4% |
76% |
5% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
23% |
24% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
23% |
12% |
18% |
21% |
40% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 3%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +7% to +3% for Julia Gillard.
Both men and women prefer Julia Gillard 40%/37%.
12 March 2012, 120312, ALP, Bob Carr, Federal Government, Foreign Minister, Labor Government, NSW Premier, Polling, polls, Senate
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister?
|
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total approve |
37% |
60% |
23% |
39% |
| Total disapprove |
36% |
15% |
54% |
17% |
| Strongly approve |
7% |
17% |
2% |
7% |
| Approve |
30% |
43% |
21% |
32% |
| Disapprove |
19% |
10% |
27% |
11% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
5% |
27% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
27% |
25% |
22% |
45% |
Opinions of the former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister were split – 37% approved and 36% disapproved.
60% of Labor voters approved and 54% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.
Respondents from New South Wales were a little more positive – 43% approve and 37% disapprove.
12 March 2012, 120312, government policy, influence, opinion, Policy, Polling, polls, public opinion, Treasurer, Wayne Swan, wealth, wealthy
QA. The Treasurer Wayne Swan has said some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. Do you agree or disagree with the Treasurer’s statement? *
QB. Do you agree or disagree that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. *
|
A. Wayne Swan statement |
B. Unattributed statement |
|||||||
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total agree |
58% |
78% |
36% |
89% |
60% |
67% |
55% |
75% |
| Total disagree |
26% |
6% |
51% |
2% |
24% |
18% |
30% |
14% |
| Strongly agree |
24% |
38% |
9% |
54% |
27% |
36% |
15% |
50% |
| Agree |
34% |
40% |
27% |
35% |
33% |
31% |
40% |
25% |
| Disagree |
15% |
4% |
29% |
2% |
12% |
5% |
15% |
3% |
| Strongly disagree |
11% |
2% |
22% |
– |
12% |
13% |
15% |
11% |
| Don’t know |
16% |
16% |
14% |
9% |
15% |
15% |
16% |
11% |
* each question was asked of half the total sample.
There was similar majority agreement with this statement – that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests – whether or not it was attributed to Wayne Swan. When attributed to Wayne Swan 58% agreed and 26% disagreed. When unattributed, 60% agreed and 24% disagreed.
When attributed to Wayne Swan, 78% of Labor voters and 89% of Greens voters agreed but 51% of Liberal/National voters disagreed.
When unattributed, a majority of voters of all parties agreed – although Labor and Greens voters not as strongly.
12 March 2012, 120312, Minerals Resource Rent Tax, mining, mining companies, Mining tax, opinion, Polling, polls, tax
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?
|
12 Jul 2010 |
5 Sep 2011 |
21 Nov |
20 Feb 2012 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
50% |
46% |
51% |
55% |
52% |
76% |
33% |
79% |
| Total disapprove |
28% |
34% |
33% |
28% |
34% |
12% |
55% |
12% |
| Strongly approve |
13% |
18% |
18% |
23% |
20% |
36% |
7% |
51% |
| Approve |
37% |
28% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
40% |
26% |
28% |
| Disapprove |
18% |
18% |
20% |
17% |
22% |
9% |
34% |
10% |
| Strongly disapprove |
10% |
16% |
13% |
11% |
12% |
3% |
21% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
22% |
19% |
15% |
17% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
8% |
52% approve the Government’s proposed mining tax and 34% disapprove. This represents a weakening in support over the last 3 weeks (from net +27% to net +18%) but a similar result to that of November 2011.
Labor voters (76%) and Greens voters (79%) strongly support the tax – but Liberal/National voters disapprove 55% to 33%.