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  • Mar, 2012

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    Creating a Climate for Change on Carbon

    It’s only months until a price on carbon takes affect so here are some clues from the polling to help Labor though the difficult times ahead.


  • Mar, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,902 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

     

    This week

    Liberal

    44%

    46%

    47%

    46%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    47%

    49%

    49%

    49%

    Labor

    38.0%

    34%

    32%

    32%

    31%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    11%

    10%

    10%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    8%

    9%

    10%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

    2 weeks ago

    Last week

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    54%

    56%

    56%

    57%

    Labor

    50.1%

    46%

    44%

    44%

    43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Mar, 2012

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

     

    19 Jul 2010

    20 Dec 2010

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    17 Oct

    14 Nov

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    Total approve

    52%

    43%

    41%

    34%

    28%

    34%

    37%

    34%

    37%

    36%

    32%

    Total disapprove

    30%

    40%

    46%

    54%

    64%

    59%

    55%

    54%

    52%

    53%

    61%

    Strongly approve

    11%

    10%

    7%

    6%

    5%

    7%

    8%

    6%

    6%

    6%

    8%

    Approve

    41%

    33%

    34%

    28%

    23%

    27%

    29%

    28%

    31%

    30%

    24%

    Disapprove

    17%

    24%

    22%

    29%

    28%

    27%

    25%

    25%

    27%

    26%

    29%

    Strongly disapprove

    13%

    16%

    24%

    25%

    36%

    32%

    30%

    29%

    25%

    27%

    32%

    Don’t know

    18%

    17%

    13%

    13%

    8%

    7%

    9%

    11%

    12%

    11%

    7%

    Julia Gillard’s approval rating has dropped substantially since last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 61% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -17 to -29 over the last 4 weeks. This is her lowest rating since September.

    75% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).

    By gender – men 32% approve/62% disapprove, women 32% approve/60% disapprove.

    Comments »

  • Mar, 2012

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

    2010

    20 Dec 2010

    14 Mar

    2011

    14 June

    12 Sept

    17 Oct

    14 Nov

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    Total approve

    37%

    37%

    39%

    38%

    38%

    39%

    40%

    36%

    32%

    35%

    35%

    36%

    Total disapprove

    37%

    47%

    39%

    47%

    48%

    50%

    51%

    52%

    53%

    51%

    53%

    52%

    Strongly approve

    5%

    8%

    9%

    7%

    6%

    8%

    8%

    6%

    6%

    7%

    6%

    7%

    Approve

    32%

    29%

    30%

    31%

    32%

    31%

    32%

    30%

    26%

    28%

    29%

    29%

    Disapprove

    20%

    23%

    21%

    24%

    25%

    23%

    23%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    23%

    23%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    24%

    18%

    23%

    23%

    27%

    28%

    26%

    28%

    26%

    30%

    29%

    Don’t know

    26%

    16%

    22%

    16%

    15%

    11%

    9%

    12%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    12%

    Tony Abbott’s approval rating has changed little over the last month. 36% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 52% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.

    70% (up 3%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.

    By gender – men 37% approve/54% disapprove, women 36% approve/49% disapprove.

    Comments »

  • Mar, 2012

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 2010

    14 Mar

    14 June

    12 Sept

    17 Oct

    14 Nov

    12 Dec

    16 Jan 2012

    13 Feb

    12 Mar

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Julia Gillard

    53%

    44%

    41%

    36%

    38%

    41%

    39%

    39%

    41%

    40%

    84%

    6%

    74%

    Tony Abbott

    26%

    33%

    36%

    40%

    39%

    36%

    35%

    36%

    34%

    37%

    4%

    76%

    5%

    Don’t know

    21%

    23%

    24%

    24%

    23%

    24%

    26%

    25%

    25%

    23%

    12%

    18%

    21%

    40% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 37% (up 3%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +7% to +3% for Julia Gillard.

    Both men and women prefer Julia Gillard 40%/37%.

    Comments »

  • Mar, 2012

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    Approval of Bob Carr

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister?

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    37%

    60%

    23%

    39%

    Total disapprove

    36%

    15%

    54%

    17%

    Strongly approve

    7%

    17%

    2%

    7%

    Approve

    30%

    43%

    21%

    32%

    Disapprove

    19%

    10%

    27%

    11%

    Strongly disapprove

    17%

    5%

    27%

    6%

    Don’t know

    27%

    25%

    22%

    45%

    Opinions of the former NSW Premier Bob Carr going into the Senate and taking up the position of Foreign Minister were split – 37% approved and 36% disapproved.

    60% of Labor voters approved and 54% of Liberal/National voters disapproved.

    Respondents from New South Wales were a little more positive – 43% approve and 37% disapprove.

    Comments »

  • Mar, 2012

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    Using Wealth to Influence Opinion and Policy

    QA. The Treasurer Wayne Swan has said some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. Do you agree or disagree with the Treasurer’s statement? *

    QB. Do you agree or disagree that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests. *

     

    A. Wayne Swan statement

    B. Unattributed statement

     

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total agree

    58%

    78%

    36%

    89%

    60%

    67%

    55%

    75%

    Total disagree

    26%

    6%

    51%

    2%

    24%

    18%

    30%

    14%

    Strongly agree

    24%

    38%

    9%

    54%

    27%

    36%

    15%

    50%

    Agree

    34%

    40%

    27%

    35%

    33%

    31%

    40%

    25%

    Disagree

    15%

    4%

    29%

    2%

    12%

    5%

    15%

    3%

    Strongly disagree

    11%

    2%

    22%

    12%

    13%

    15%

    11%

    Don’t know

    16%

    16%

    14%

    9%

    15%

    15%

    16%

    11%

    * each question was asked of half the total sample.

    There was similar majority agreement with this statement – that some of Australia’s wealthiest individuals are using their wealth to try to influence public opinion and government policy to further their own commercial interests – whether or not it was attributed to Wayne Swan. When attributed to Wayne Swan 58% agreed and 26% disagreed. When unattributed, 60% agreed and 24% disagreed.

    When attributed to Wayne Swan, 78% of Labor voters and 89% of Greens voters agreed but 51% of Liberal/National voters disagreed.

    When unattributed, a majority of voters of all parties agreed – although Labor and Greens voters not as strongly.

    Comments »

  • Mar, 2012

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    Opinion of Mining Tax

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?

     

    12 Jul 2010

    5 Sep 2011

    21 Nov

    20 Feb 2012

    Total

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Total approve

    50%

    46%

    51%

    55%

    52%

    76%

    33%

    79%

    Total disapprove

    28%

    34%

    33%

    28%

    34%

    12%

    55%

    12%

    Strongly approve

    13%

    18%

    18%

    23%

    20%

    36%

    7%

    51%

    Approve

    37%

    28%

    33%

    32%

    32%

    40%

    26%

    28%

    Disapprove

    18%

    18%

    20%

    17%

    22%

    9%

    34%

    10%

    Strongly disapprove

    10%

    16%

    13%

    11%

    12%

    3%

    21%

    2%

    Don’t know

    22%

    19%

    15%

    17%

    14%

    13%

    12%

    8%

    52% approve the Government’s proposed mining tax and 34% disapprove. This represents a weakening in support over the last 3 weeks (from net +27% to net +18%) but a similar result to that of November 2011.

    Labor voters (76%) and Greens voters (79%) strongly support the tax – but Liberal/National voters disapprove 55% to 33%.

    Comments »

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