26 March 2012, 260312, 2PP, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,923 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 27/2/12 |
2 weeks ago 12/3/12 |
Last week 19/3/12 |
This week 26/3/12 |
| Liberal |
46% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
10% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
57% |
56% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
26 March 2012, 260312, Australian economy, economic future, economic outlook, economy, Finance, money, Polling, polls
Q. Overall, from what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?
|
17 May 10 (Post 2010 budget) |
9 May 11 (Post 2011 budget) |
4 Jul 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Liberal/ National |
Vote Greens |
|
| The right direction |
51% |
45% |
37% |
36% |
65% |
19% |
47% |
| The wrong direction |
25% |
29% |
43% |
41% |
15% |
64% |
23% |
| Don’t know |
24% |
25% |
20% |
22% |
21% |
17% |
30% |
36% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 41% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Opinions have changed little since this question was asked in July last year – “right direction” has dropped 1% and “wrong direction” dropped 2%.
65% of Labor voters, 19% of Liberal/National voters and 47% of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction.
26 March 2012, 260312, Australian economy, economy, Finance, Labor Party, Liberal Party, money, Polling, polls
Q. Which party do you think would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you?
|
|
4 Jul 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| The Labor Party |
26% |
29% |
76% |
1% |
39% |
| The Liberal Party |
43% |
41% |
2% |
89% |
7% |
| No difference |
23% |
20% |
14% |
7% |
45% |
| Don’t know |
8% |
10% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
41% (down 2% since July last year) think the Liberal Party would be best at handling the Australian economy in their interests and 29% (up 3%) nominated the Labor Party. 20% think there is no difference.
There were significant differences by income – those earning under $600pw split 38% Labor/30% Liberal while those earning over $1,600pw favoured the Liberal Party 49% to 23% Labor.
26 March 2012, 260312, economic conditions, economic outlook, economy, Finance, money, Polling, polls, the economy
Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
1 Dec 08 |
15 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 April 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
21% |
43% |
66% |
33% |
40% |
27% |
22% |
16% |
25% |
42% |
17% |
26% |
| Total worse |
61% |
37% |
15% |
31% |
30% |
37% |
49% |
58% |
46% |
29% |
60% |
37% |
| Get a lot better |
2% |
5% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
4% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
5% |
2% |
1% |
| Get a little better |
19% |
38% |
58% |
28% |
34% |
23% |
19% |
14% |
22% |
37% |
15% |
25% |
| Get a little worse |
45% |
28% |
11% |
23% |
20% |
27% |
31% |
41% |
31% |
25% |
36% |
34% |
| Get a lot worse |
16% |
9% |
4% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
18% |
17% |
15% |
4% |
24% |
3% |
| Stay much the same |
13% |
17% |
15% |
30% |
24% |
27% |
25% |
22% |
21% |
24% |
19% |
26% |
| No opinion |
5% |
3% |
4% |
7% |
6% |
8% |
4% |
4% |
7% |
4% |
4% |
12% |
Confidence in the economic outlook has strengthened with the percentage of respondents believing conditions to be getting better increasing 9 points to 25%, from 16% in October last year. Those believing that economic conditions will get worse over the next 12 months has fallen 12 points from 58% to 46%.
Labor voters are optimistic overall – 42% better/29% worse. Coalition voters are the most pessimistic, with 60% believing that thing will get worse over the next 12 months and only 17% better.
There was little difference across income groups.
26 March 2012, 260312, economy, finances, financial situation, money, personal finances, Personal financial situation, Polling, polls
Q, Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?
|
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 April 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total better |
29% |
33% |
32% |
28% |
24% |
28% |
34% |
25% |
36% |
| Total worse |
31% |
29% |
31% |
36% |
41% |
37% |
29% |
42% |
34% |
| Get a lot better |
5% |
6% |
7% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
14% |
| Get a little better |
24% |
27% |
25% |
23% |
20% |
23% |
29% |
21% |
22% |
| Get a little worse |
21% |
21% |
22% |
23% |
27% |
27% |
22% |
30% |
27% |
| Get a lot worse |
10% |
8% |
9% |
13% |
14% |
10% |
7% |
12% |
7% |
| Stay much the same |
37% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
29% |
32% |
31% |
25% |
| No opinion |
4% |
5% |
5% |
3% |
3% |
5% |
5% |
2% |
5% |
28% (up 4% since October last year) of respondents believe that their personal financial situation will get better in the next 12 months and 37% worse (down 4%). 29% (down 3%) expect it to stay much the same. However, these results are very similar to those of July 2011.
Greens voters (36% better) and Labor voters (34%) are the most likely to believe that their personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months, whereas Coalition voters are the most likely to believe that theirs will get worse (42%).
People on lower incomes were more pessimistic about their personal financial outlook – those earning under $600 per week split 22% better/49% worse – compared to those earning more than $1,600pw who split 36%better/30% worse.
26 March 2012, 260312, employment, insecure work, job security, jobs, Polling, polls, work, workers
Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?
|
|
8 Jun 09 |
5 Oct 09 |
28 Jun 10 |
18 Oct 10 |
4 Apr 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
3 Oct 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total concerned |
52% |
49% |
43% |
40% |
43% |
45% |
47% |
49% |
43% |
55% |
34% |
| Very concerned |
13% |
14% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
9% |
16% |
8% |
| Somewhat concerned |
39% |
35% |
34% |
29% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
36% |
34% |
39% |
26% |
| Not at all concerned |
35% |
40% |
38% |
42% |
43% |
39% |
37% |
36% |
44% |
31% |
51% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
6% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
| No employees in the immediate family |
8% |
5% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
7% |
6% |
6% |
Concern over job security has risen slightly since the last time the question was polled, increasing 2 points up from 47% in October 2011 to 49% (total concerned).
In the 12 months from April 2011, total concern has increased from 43% to 49%.
Coalition voters are the most likely to be concerned that they or a member of their immediately family will lose their job in the next year or so (55% total concerned), whereas Greens voters are less likely to be concerned (34% total concerned).
There were no major differences across income or age groups – except for the under 25’s where 41% were concerned and 48% not at all concerned.
26 March 2012, 260312, campaign, campaigns, Invisible Children, Joseph Kony, Kony, Kony 2012, Polling, polls, viral campaign
Q. Over the past couple of weeks a video made by the not-for-profit organisation Invisible Children called Kony 2012 was put up on the internet. Have you heard of the Kony2012 video or campaign?
|
|
Total |
Men |
Women |
Aged 18-34 |
Aged 35-54 |
Aged 55+ |
| Yes |
68% |
68% |
68% |
78% |
68% |
56% |
| No |
27% |
27% |
27% |
19% |
28% |
37% |
| Not sure |
5% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
5% |
7% |
68% said they had heard of the Kony 2012 video or campaign.
Younger respondents were most likely to be aware of the campaign – although a majority of all demographic groups said they had heard of it.
26 March 2012, 260312, campaign, campaigns, Invisible Children, Joseph Kony, Kony, Kony 2012, Polling, polls, viral campaign
Q. Which of the following apply to you?
|
Total |
Men |
Women |
Aged 18-34 |
Aged 35-54 |
Aged 55+ |
|
| I was sent an email link, Facebook message or tweet about this from a friend |
41% |
36% |
45% |
63% |
32% |
18% |
| I have read about Kony 2012 in the media |
75% |
73% |
76% |
73% |
74% |
78% |
| I searched online for the video |
19% |
18% |
20% |
31% |
14% |
8% |
| I watched all of the video Kony 2012 |
24% |
20% |
28% |
37% |
17% |
15% |
| I watched part of the video Kony 2012 |
29% |
28% |
29% |
34% |
26% |
25% |
| I visited the Kony 2012 website |
13% |
10% |
15% |
17% |
11% |
7% |
| I pledged support to the campaign on the website |
7% |
6% |
8% |
10% |
6% |
4% |
| I have donated or bought the kit |
5% |
6% |
5% |
9% |
4% |
3% |
| I sent a message to the policymakers and culturalmakers |
5% |
6% |
3% |
7% |
4% |
3% |
| Before this video I had not heard of Invisible Children or Joseph Kony |
63% |
57% |
70% |
64% |
63% |
62% |
| I have previously supported international aid organisations or campaigns |
42% |
38% |
46% |
43% |
38% |
49% |
* Based on those who have heard of Kony 2012
Of those aware of the campaign/video, more than half said they had watched all or part of the Kony 2012 video – although the most common way of hearing about the campaign was in the media (75%).
63% said they had never heard of the Invisible Children or Joseph Kony before the video.
However, only a small proportion took any form of action as a result of the campaign – 7% pledged support on the website and 5% said they donated or bought the kit.