Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,906 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal | 45% | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 41% | 85% | 5% | 76% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 36% | 34% | 3% | 73% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 12% | 22% | 17% |
41% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (down 2%) prefer Tony Abbott – a net change from +3% to +7% for Julia Gillard. This is Julia Gillard’s best result since May last year.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 42%/37% and women favour Julia Gillard 40%/32%.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,899 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal | 45% | 45% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 48% | 48% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 35% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 9% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 7% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,896 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal | 45% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 48% | 48% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 35% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 9% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 7% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Support for Additional Assistance to Car Industry
Q. Do you support or oppose the provision of additional assistance by Federal and State governments to ensure US motor companies continue to manufacture cars in Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 58% | 67% | 63% | 45% |
| Total oppose | 18% | 16% | 20% | 22% |
| Strongly support | 14% | 20% | 14% | 5% |
| Support | 44% | 47% | 49% | 40% |
| Oppose | 12% | 12% | 14% | 13% |
| Strongly oppose | 6% | 4% | 6% | 9% |
| Don’t know | 23% | 17% | 17% | 33% |
58% said they supported the provision of additional assistance to the Australian car industry and 18% were opposed.
Support was highest among Labor voters (67%), aged 55+ (67%) and Victorians (68%).
Estimate of Jobs in Car Industry
Q. Do you know how many jobs are in the car industry in Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| 500,000 | 5% | 8% | 4% | 3% |
| 200,000 | 9% | 8% | 10% | 12% |
| 100,000 | 9% | 9% | 9% | 11% |
| 50,000 | 9% | 8% | 11% | 6% |
| 20,000 | 3% | 4% | 3% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 66% | 63% | 64% | 63% |
Only 9% correctly nominated 50,000 as the number of jobs in the car industry in Australia. 66% said they didn’t know and the rest of the responses were spread across all options – suggesting that most who gave an answer were probably guessing.
Support for Car Industry Jobs
Q. In fact, the car industry in Australia directly supports about 50,000 jobs. Do you support or oppose the current levels of assistance to support these jobs?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 68% | 75% | 72% | 56% |
| Total oppose | 12% | 9% | 13% | 17% |
| Strongly support | 14% | 20% | 13% | 5% |
| Support | 54% | 55% | 59% | 51% |
| Oppose | 9% | 7% | 9% | 15% |
| Strongly oppose | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 20% | 15% | 15% | 27% |
When provided with the information that there are about 50,000 jobs in the Australian car industry, 68% said the supported the current levels of assistance and 12% were opposed. More than 70% of both Labor and Liberal/National voters were in support and more than 60% of all demographic groups also supported the current level of assistance.
Support for Other Manufacturing Sectors
Q. Do you think other manufacturing sectors that are under pressure from the high Australian dollar should receive similar assistance from Governments, or do you think the car industry needs special assistance?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Other manufacturing industries should receive similar assistance | 62% | 61% | 66% | 68% |
| The car industry needs special assistance | 12% | 15% | 15% | 9% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 24% | 19% | 23% |
62% thought that other manufacturing industries should receive similar assistance and only 12% thought the car industry needs special assistance. There were no major differences across demographic and voter groups – although strongest support for similar assistance for other industries came from Greens voters (68%), aged 45+ (69%) and Victorian residents (68%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 14 May 2019
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