Federal politics – voting intention

Jun 14, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size = 1,921

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 44% 44% 44%
National 3% 3% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 47% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 36% 34% 34% 34%
Greens 11.8 11% 12% 12% 12%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 8% 8% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 54% 53% 54%
Labor 50.1% 48% 46% 47% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

19 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June
Total approve 41% 52% 45% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41% 34%
Total disapprove 47% 30% 37% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54%
Strongly approve 7% 11% 12% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6%
Approve 34% 41% 33% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34% 28%
Disapprove 25% 17% 21% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26% 29%
Strongly disapprove 22% 13% 16% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22% 25%
Don’t know 12% 18% 19% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11% 13%

34% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (up 6%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -7 to -20 over the last 5 weeks.

76% of Labor voters approve (down 10%) and 14% disapprove (up 4%).

By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 35% approve/49% disapprove.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

29 Mar 5 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June
Total approve 37% 33% 37% 43% 39% 42% 38% 38% 36% 42% 38%
Total disapprove 37% 50% 47% 37% 39% 37% 46% 47% 48% 44% 48%
Strongly approve 5% 8% 8% 12% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 6%
Approve 32% 25% 29% 31% 30% 35% 30% 31% 29% 34% 32%
Disapprove 20% 28% 23% 21% 21% 22% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25%
Strongly disapprove 17% 22% 24% 16% 18% 15% 22% 23% 23% 19% 23%
Don’t know 26% 16% 16% 19% 22% 20% 16% 16% 17% 14% 15%

38% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 48% (up 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -2 to -10 over the last 4 weeks.

70% of Coalition voters approve and 20% disapprove.

By gender – men 44% approve/47% disapprove, women 32% approve/49% disapprove.

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Better Prime Minister

Jun 14, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 84% 7% 65% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 5% 73% 11% 30%
Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 11% 20% 24% 23%

41% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 3% on last month’s figures (from +8% to +5%).

Men are split 40%/40% and women favour Julia Gillard 41%/32%.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

May 9, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

5 Jul 19 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 40% 37% 37% 38% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 24% 21% 20% 23% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 17% 15% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 13% 19% 18% 18% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11%

41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (down 2% disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -7 over the last 4 weeks.

86% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 10% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 45% approve/41% disapprove.

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Better Prime Minister

May 9, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 45% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 91% 7% 71% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 35% 34% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 4% 76% 2% 30%
Don’t know 21% 18% 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 5% 17% 27% 23%

43% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 1% on last month’s figures (from +9% to +8%).

Men are split 41%/41% and women favour Julia Gillard 45%/29%.

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Better Prime Minister

Apr 11, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 2011 14 Mar 2011 11 Apr 2011 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 45% 47% 48% 44% 42% 86% 8% 75% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 35% 34% 32% 31% 33% 33% 2% 72% 5% 30%
Don’t know 21% 18% 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 12% 20% 20% 23%

42% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 2% on last month’s figures (from +11% to +9%).

Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 42%/38% and women 42%/29%.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

Mar 14, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

5 Jul 19 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 51% 48% 41%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 40% 37% 37% 38% 40% 36% 41% 46%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 43% 39% 34%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 24% 21% 20% 23% 24% 24% 25% 22%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 17% 15% 16% 12% 16% 24%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 13% 19% 18% 18% 17% 14% 11% 13%

41% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 46% (up 5%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +7 to -5 over the last 4 weeks.

87% of Labor voters approve and 7% disapprove.

By gender – men 41% approve/49% disapprove, women 42% approve/43% disapprove.

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