Vote if Kevin Rudd Labor Leader
Q. If Kevin Rudd was the leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 36% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 42% |
| Labor | 41% | 45% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 5% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 8% |
If Kevin Rudd was leader of the Labor Party (and Tony Abbott was leader of the Liberal Party) 45% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (up 13%) and 42% to the Liberal or National Parties (down 6%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 53% Labor/47% Liberal/National – a swing of 8% to Labor.
Most of the increased Labor vote comes from Liberal/National voters – 12% of Liberal/National voters said they would vote Labor if Kevin Rudd was leader.
Groups with the largest shifts to Labor were women, aged under 35, NSW and lower incomes.
Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader
Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 44% | 49% |
| National | 4% | 4% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 53% |
| Labor | 28% | 31% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.
Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.
The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.
Attributes to describe the Prime Minister
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 87% | 81% | 75% | 73% | -2% |
| Hard-working | 89% | 82% | 76% | 75% | -1% |
| A capable leader | 72% | 59% | 52% | 42% | -10% |
| Arrogant | 37% | 39% | 44% | 48% | +4% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 35% | 44% | 50% | 60% | +10% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 68% | 55% | 52% | 44% | -8% |
| Visionary | 48% | 38% | 30% | 26% | -4% |
| Superficial | 51% | 52% | +1% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 61% | 46% | 46% | 41% | -5% |
| Narrow-minded | 28% | 35% | 43% | 46% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 45% | 37% | 37% | 29% | -8% |
| Trustworthy | 49% | 42% | 40% | 30% | -10% |
Julia Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (73%) and out of touch with ordinary people (60%).
Major changes since this question was asked in February were an increase of 10% for out of touch (to 60%) and decreases for a capable leader (down 10% to 42%) and trustworthy (down 10% to 30%).
Attributes to describe the Opposition Leader
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 4 Oct 10 | 7 Feb 11 | 27 Jun 11 | Change | |
| Intelligent | 70% | 71% | 64% | 61% | -3% |
| Hard-working | 76% | 78% | 72% | 75% | +3% |
| A capable leader | 47% | 52% | 48% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 59% | 60% | 58% | 60% | +2% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 57% | 53% | 54% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 50% | 53% | 50% | 48% | -2% |
| Visionary | 32% | 31% | 27% | 27% | – |
| Superficial | 45% | 49% | +4% | ||
| Good in a crisis | 40% | 42% | 41% | 40% | -1% |
| Narrow-minded | 56% | 53% | 51% | 54% | +3% |
| More honest than most politicians | 33% | 32% | 31% | 32% | +1% |
| Trustworthy | 33% | 35% | 34% | 32% | -2% |
Tony Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (75%), intelligent (61%) and arrogant (60%).
There have only been minor changes since this question was asked in February.
Comparison of Leader Attributes
| Julia Gillard | Tony Abbott | Difference | |
| Intelligent | 73% | 61% | +12% |
| Hard-working | 75% | 75% | – |
| A capable leader | 42% | 45% | -3% |
| Arrogant | 48% | 60% | -12% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 60% | 57% | +3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 44% | 48% | -4% |
| Visionary | 26% | 27% | -1% |
| Superficial | 52% | 49% | +3% |
| Good in a crisis | 41% | 40% | +1% |
| Narrow-minded | 46% | 54% | -8% |
| More honest than most politicians | 29% | 32% | -3% |
| Trustworthy | 30% | 32% | -2% |
Julia Gillard rates substantially higher than Tony Abbott as intelligent (+12%) and lower on the negative attributes of arrogant (-12%) and narrow-minded (-8%). There were only minor differences on the other attributes.
Is Australia a Better/Worse Place?
Q. Do you think Australia has become a better or worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| A better place | 13% | 32% | 4% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 11% |
| A worse place | 51% | 17% | 82% | 27% | 57% | 46% | 42% | 53% | 61% |
| A much better place | 3% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| A better place | 10% | 23% | 3% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 8% |
| A worse place | 32% | 14% | 47% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| A much worse place | 19% | 3% | 35% | 3% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 20% | 29% |
| No change | 29% | 44% | 12% | 46% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 3% |
Half the people surveyed (51%) think Australia has become a worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM. 13% think it has become a better place and 29% say there has been no change.
82% of Liberal/National voters think it has become a worse place while 46% of Greens voters and 44% of Labor voters think there has been no change.
The most negative groups were men (57% worse) and those aged 55+ (61% worse).
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,921
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 47% | 46% | 46% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 36% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 8% | 8% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 52% | 54% | 53% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 48% | 46% | 47% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
19 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | |
| Total approve | 41% | 52% | 45% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 34% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 30% | 37% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 54% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% |
| Approve | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 28% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 29% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% |
34% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (up 6%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -7 to -20 over the last 5 weeks.
76% of Labor voters approve (down 10%) and 14% disapprove (up 4%).
By gender – men 34% approve/57% disapprove, women 35% approve/49% disapprove.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
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- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Views towards re-electing the federal Coalition government
- Party trust to handle issues
- Importance of Australia’s international reputation
- Scott Morrison’s impact on Australia’s international reputation
- Views towards Australia’s international reputation
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