Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader

Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference	Total	Gave vote
Liberal	44%	49%
National	4%	4%
Total Lib/Nat	48%	53%
Labor	28%	31%
Greens	7%	8%
Other/Independent	7%	8%
Don’t know	10%

If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.

Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters  – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.

The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.