2PP, Election, Federal Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, National, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
1910 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 36% | 41% | 41% | 42% | 40% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 43% |
| Labor | 43% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 42% |
| Greens | 9% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Other/Independent | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
Greens, Labor, Liberal, National Broadband Network, NBN
Q. From what you’ve heard, do you favour or oppose the planned national broadband network, or don’t you know enough about it to have an opinion one way or the other?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens
|
|
| Total favour | 56% | 81% | 31% | 72% |
| Total oppose | 18% | 3% | 38% | 4% |
| Strongly favour | 27% | 50% | 7% | 41% |
| Favour | 29% | 31% | 24% | 31% |
| Oppose | 12% | 2% | 25% | 4% |
| Strongly oppose | 6% | 1% | 13% | * |
| Don’t know | 26% | 15% | 30% | 24% |
56% of people favour the national broadband network.
81% of Labor voters, compared with 31% of Lib/Nat voters favour the planned national broadband network.
65% of males, compared with 47% of females favour the planned national broadband network.
38% of females, compared with 13% of males don’t know enough about it to have an opinion one way or the other.
Support for the planned national broadband network is highest in the 45-54 years age category (64% favour). Support is lowest in the 65+ yeas age category (47% favour).
63% of Victorian favour the planned national broadband network.
Euthanasia, Green, Labor, Liberal
Q. When a person has a disease that cannot be cured and is living in severe pain, do you think doctors should or should not be allowed by law to assist the patient to commit suicide if the patient requests it?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Green
|
|
| Should be allowed | 69% | 69% | 69% | 86% |
| Should not be allowed | 14% | 14% | 16% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 17% | 15% | 7% |
69% of people think that that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient commit suicide.
86% of Green voters that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient commit suicide. 69% of both Labor and Lib/Nat voters that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient to commit suicide.
There was no significant difference between the genders.
79% of people aged 65+ think that doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient to commit suicide. This is compared to 57% of those aged 25-34 who think doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient to commit suicide.
58% of those in Queensland think doctors should be allowed by law to assist a patient to commit suicide, compared with 75% of people in South Australia.
climate change, EMC, emissions trading scheme, essential report, ETS, Labor
Q. How important for Australia do you think it is for the new Labor Government to move quickly to implement an emissions trading scheme or some other scheme (such as a tax on carbon) to address climate change?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens
|
|
| Very Important | 37% | 54% | 20% | 72% |
| Not that Important | 27% | 12% | 47% | 5% |
| A top priority | 13% | 18% | 6% | 40% |
| Very important | 24% | 36% | 14% | 32% |
| Somewhat important | 26% | 29% | 24% | 19% |
| Not that important | 14% | 6% | 24% | 3% |
| Not important at all | 13% | 6% | 23% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 5% | 8% | 4% |
37% of people think it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
54% of Labor voters, compared with 20% of Lib/Nat voters think it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change. 72% of Green voters think it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
48% of those aged 18-24, compared with 26% of those aged 65+ it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
42% of Victorians, compared with 30% of Queenslanders it is very important to implement an ETS or other scheme to address climate change.
There was no significant difference between the genders.
Approval of Julia Gillard, Election, Julia Gillard, Labor, PM approval
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard
|
|||||||
| 31 May | 5 Jul | 19 Jul | 26 Jul | 2 Aug | 9 Aug | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% | 45% | 46% | 45% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 40% | 37% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 13% | 13% | 12% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% | 32% | 33% | 33% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 21% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% | 16% | 16% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 19% |
45% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 37% disapprove. Since this question was asked last month, approval has decreased by 1% and disapproval decreased by 3%. 92% of Labor voters approve and only 1% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 10% approve and 75% disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/42% disapprove and women 46% approve/32% disapprove.
Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2,106 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 37% | 39% | 42% | 41% | 40% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 42% | 45% | 44% | 43% |
| Labor | 43% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 39% |
| Greens | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »
Coalition, Election, Essential, Galaxy, Greens, Independents, Labor, Morgan, Newspoll, Nielsen, Polling
All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.
However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.
Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.
This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor | 38.5% | 36.2% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Coalition | 43.5% | 43.2% | 41.5% | 41% | 42% | 43% |
| Greens | 11.4% | 13.9% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Others | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor 2PP | 50.7% | 50.2% | 52% | 52 | 51% | 51% |
| Difference | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |
approval, approval of PM, Election, Gillard, Labor
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | 2 weeks ago | ||
| Total gone up | 21% | 42% | 8% | 22% | 19% | |
| Total gone down | 40% | 13% | 67% | 28% | 42% | |
| Gone up a lot | 6% | 16% | * | 3% | 6% | |
| Gone up a little | 15% | 26% | 8% | 19% | 13% | |
| Stayed the same | 35% | 44% | 23% | 48% | 32% | |
| Gone down a little | 18% | 12% | 26% | 15% | 20% | |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 1% | 41% | 13% | 22% | |
| Don’t know | 4% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 7% |
21% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 40% say it has gone down.
This is a slight improvement on their position 2 weeks ago when opinion was 19% up and 42% down.
By gender – men 20% up/43% down and women 23% up/36% down. Comments »