2PP, Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, NSW, QLD, SA, Victoria, Voting intention, WA
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
First preference
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal | 40% | 42% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 47% |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | – | 2% |
| Coalition | 43% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 40% | 49% |
| Labor | 40% | 38% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 37% |
| Greens | 10% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% |
| Others | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
2PP
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal/National | 49% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 53% |
| Labor | 51% | 48% | 55% | 47% | 54% | 47% |
| Labor 2PP 2007 election | 52.7% | 53.7% | 54.3% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 46.7% |
| Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election | -1.7 | -5.7 | +0.7 | -3.4 | +1.6 | +0.3 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
Abbott, economy, GFC, Gillard, Labor, Liberal
Q. If another global financial crisis develops in the next few years, which leader and party do you think would be best to handle it?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard and the Labor Party | 42% | 88% | 5% | 66% |
| Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party | 35% | 2% | 80% | 6% |
| Don’t know | 23% | 11% | 15% | 27% |
42% think Julia Gillard and the Labor Party would be best at handling another global financial crisis if it was to develop and 35% think Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would be best.
Those aged 25-54 prefer the Labor Party over the Liberals 46% to 30%, while those aged 55+ prefer the Liberal Party 48% to 36%. Comments »
Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
2,763 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 35% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 42% |
| Labor | 44% | 41% | 41% | 40% | 41% |
| Greens | 10% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 10% |
| Family First | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 45% | 45% | 45% | 46% | 48% |
| Labor | 55% | 55% | 55% | 54% | 52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
Q. Which of the major parties – Labor or Liberal – do you think is the best party when it comes to –
| Labor | Liberal | Don’t know | Labor margin | |
| Making sure large companies pay their fair share of taxation | 47% | 25% | 28% | +22 |
| Looking after the needs of low income earners and pensioners | 42% | 23% | 34% | +19 |
| Understanding the needs of the average Australian | 43% | 28% | 29% | +15 |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 42% | 27% | 31% | +15 |
| Handling environmental and climate change issues | 38% | 24% | 38% | +14 |
| Handling the economy in a way that helps working people in Australia | 44% | 35% | 21% | +9 |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 38% | 29% | 33% | +9 |
| Representing the interests of you and people like you | 43% | 35% | 22% | +8 |
| Having a vision for Australia’s future | 36% | 33% | 31% | +3 |
| Providing strong leadership | 33% | 33% | 34% | – |
| Handling Australia’s relations with other countries | 33% | 38% | 29% | -5 |
| Handling Australia’s economy | 38% | 44% | 18% | -6 |
| Being a stable and reliable Government | 30% | 38% | 31% | -8 |
| Dealing with the issue of immigration | 25% | 43% | 32% | -18 |
Main strengths for Labor are making sure large companies pay their fair share of taxation, looking after the needs of low income earners and pensioners, understanding the needs of the average Australian, ensuring a quality education for all children and handling environmental and climate change issues.
The Liberal Party is considered to be best at dealing with the issue of immigration, being a stable and reliable Government and handling Australia’s economy. Comments »
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total gone up | 19% | 38% | 8% | 18% |
| Total gone down | 42% | 16% | 68% | 38% |
| Gone up a lot | 6% | 15% | 1% | 2% |
| Gone up a little | 13% | 23% | 7% | 16% |
| Stayed the same | 32% | 43% | 22% | 41% |
| Gone down a little | 20% | 15% | 25% | 24% |
| Gone down a lot | 22% | 1% | 43% | 14% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
19% say their opinion of Julia Gillard and the Labor Party has gone up during the election campaign and 42% say it has gone down.
Among Labor voters 38% say their opinion has gone up and 18% say it has gone down.
By gender – men 22% up/44% down and women 16% up/40% down. Comments »
Abbott, Bob Brown, Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Policy, Reason for voting, Voting intention
Q. What is the main reason you intend to vote for the Labor Party/Liberal or National Party/Greens?
| Labor | Liberal/ National | Greens | |||
| I always vote for the Labor Party | 28% | I always vote for the Liberal or National Party | 19% | I always vote for the Greens | 8% |
| They have better policies | 15% | They have better policies | 19% | They have better policies | 30% |
| They have been a good government | 10% | Labor have been a poor government | 39% | Labor have been a poor government | 6% |
| I just don’t like the Liberals | 11% | I just don’t like Labor | 9% | I just don’t like the Liberals or Labor | 28% |
| Julia Gillard is a better leader than Tony Abbott | 32% | Tony Abbott is a better leader than Julia Gillard | 7% | I like Bob Brown | 3% |
| Other reason | 4% | Other reason | 5% | I don’t like Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard | 14% |
| Other reason | 10% |
Main reasons for voting Labor were a preference for Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott (32%) and party loyalty (28% said they always vote Labor). The leadership issue is more important for women – 40% of women said they were voting Labor because Julia Gillard is a better leader compared to 23% of men.
39% of Liberal/National voters say their main reason is that Labor have been a poor Government – and only 7% say leadership is their main reason.
Main reasons for voting for the Greens were “better policies” (30%) and a dislike of the major parties (28%). Only 6% say it is because Labor have been a poor Government. Comments »
Greens, Labor, Liberal, Senate, Voting intention
Q. Regardless of which party is elected to Government (i.e. has a majority in the House of Representatives), which of the following Senate options do you think would be best for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Liberal/ National | Vote Greens | |
| The Government has a majority in the Senate | 29% | 41% | 33% | 5% |
| The Opposition party has a majority in the Senate | 10% | 3% | 21% | 2% |
| The Greens and the independents (like Xenophon and Fielding) together hold the balance of power in the Senate | 27% | 25% | 27% | 35% |
| The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate | 12% | 14% | 3% | 50% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 18% | 16% | 7% |
Opinions about the balance of power in the Senate are mixed. 29% prefer the Government to have a majority and 27% prefer the Greens and independents combined to hold the balance of power. Only 12% want the Greens on their own to hold the balance of power and 10% would prefer the opposition to have a majority. Overall, 39% want one of the major parties to have a majority and 39% want minor parties to hold the balance of power.
85% of Greens voters want the Greens or Greens and independents to hold the balance of power compared to 39% of Labor voters and 30% of Liberal/National voters. Comments »
Abbott, Gillard, immigration, Labor, Liberal
Q. Which leader and party do you trust most to handle immigration issues?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Liberal/ National | Vote Greens | |
| Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party | 35% | 6% | 83% | 9% |
| Julia Gillard and the Labor Party | 23% | 50% | 3% | 27% |
| No difference | 31% | 35% | 11% | 56% |
| Don’t know | 10% | 9% | 3% | 8% |
Overall, Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party are trusted most to handle immigration issues (35% to 23%). 31% think there is no difference between the major parties on immigration.
83% of Liberal/National voters trust Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party most and 50% of Labor voters trust Julia Gillard and the Labor Party. 56% of Greens voters think there is no difference. Comments »