Essential Report

Federal Budget Expectations

May 9, 2011

Q. Overall, do you expect the Federal Budget to be good or bad for you personally?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Total good 12% 21% 9% 7% 10% 14% 22% 8% 5%
Total bad 35% 18% 50% 33% 40% 30% 21% 40% 43%
Very good 2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 1% *
Good 10% 19% 7% 7% 9% 12% 19% 7% 5%
Neither good nor bad 44% 54% 36% 53% 43% 44% 45% 42% 46%
Bad 27% 16% 37% 25% 30% 23% 17% 30% 32%
Very bad 8% 2% 13% 8% 10% 7% 4% 10% 11%
Don’t know 9% 7% 6% 7% 6% 12% 11% 10% 6%

35% expect the Federal Budget will be bad for them personally and 12% expect it will be good – 44% think it will be neither.

Labor voters are split – 21% good/18% bad while 50% of Liberal/National voters expect it will be bad and only 9% expect it will be good.

Younger voters are more optimistic than older voters – those aged under 35 are split 22% good/21% bad while 43% of over 55’s expect it will be bad and only 5% good. By income, the only major difference from the average is that 45% of people on incomes under $600 pw expect it will be bad for them.

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Federal politics – voting intention

May 9, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size =1,856

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 43% 43% 44% 44%
National 3% 4% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 47% 47% 47%
Labor 38.0 35% 35% 35% 35%
Greens 11.8 11% 10% 9% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6 8% 8% 9% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 53% 54% 54% 54%
Labor 50.1% 47% 46% 46% 46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Approval of Julia Gillard

May 9, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
31 May

2010

5 Jul 19 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May
Total approve 41% 48% 52% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41%
Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 40% 37% 37% 38% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48%
Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7%
Approve 34% 34% 41% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34%
Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 24% 21% 20% 23% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26%
Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 17% 15% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22%
Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 13% 19% 18% 18% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11%

41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (down 2% disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -7 over the last 4 weeks.

86% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 10% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 45% approve/41% disapprove.

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Approval of Tony Abbott

May 9, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

18 Jan

2010

29 Mar 5 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May
Total approve 37% 33% 37% 41% 43% 39% 40% 39% 42% 38% 38% 36% 42%
Total disapprove 37% 50% 47% 44% 37% 45% 40% 39% 37% 46% 47% 48% 44%
Strongly approve 5% 8% 8% 9% 12% 8% 6% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8%
Approve 32% 25% 29% 32% 31% 31% 34% 30% 35% 30% 31% 29% 34%
Disapprove 20% 28% 23% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 22% 24% 24% 25% 25%
Strongly disapprove 17% 22% 24% 22% 16% 23% 18% 18% 15% 22% 23% 23% 19%
Don’t know 26% 16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 19% 22% 20% 16% 16% 17% 14%

42% (up 6%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 44% (down 4%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -12 to -2 over the last 4 weeks.

77% of Coalition voters approve and 13% disapprove.

By gender – men 47% approve/43% disapprove, women 37% approve/45% disapprove.

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Better Prime Minister

May 9, 2011

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

5 Jul 2010 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 47% 45% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 91% 7% 71% 47%
Tony Abbott 26% 35% 34% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 4% 76% 2% 30%
Don’t know 21% 18% 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 5% 17% 27% 23%

43% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 1% on last month’s figures (from +9% to +8%).

Men are split 41%/41% and women favour Julia Gillard 45%/29%.

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Interest in Federal Budget

May 9, 2011

Q. Thinking about the Federal Budget to be announced next week  – how interested are you in reading and hearing about the Federal Budget?

2010 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Very interested 30% 38% 41% 44% 32%
Somewhat interested 37% 29% 32% 29% 30%
A little interested 22% 21% 19% 20% 28%
Not at all interested 8% 8% 5% 6% 9%
Can’t say 4% 3% 2% *

67% of respondents say they are very or somewhat interested in reading and hearing about the Federal Budget – the same as recorded prior to the 2010 budget. However, those who say they are “very interested” has increased from 30% to 38%.

73% of both Labor and Liberal/National voters say they are interested.

Younger people are less interested – 60% of those under 35 are interested compared to 78% of those aged 55+.

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The Economy – Heading in the Right/Wrong Direction

May 9, 2011

Q. Overall, from what you have read and heard, do you think the Australian economy is heading in the right direction or the wrong direction?

17 May 10

(Post 2010 budget)

Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
The right direction 51% 45% 75% 27% 51%
The wrong direction 25% 29% 7% 51% 17%
Don’t know 24% 25% 17% 22% 33%

45% of respondents think that Australia’s economy is heading in the right direction – 29% think it is heading in the wrong direction. Since this question was asked just after the 2010 budget, “right direction” has dropped 6% and “wrong direction” increased 4%.

75% of Labor voters, 27% of Liberal/National voters and 51% of Greens voters think the economy is heading in the right direction.

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Osama bin Laden

May 9, 2011

Q. Do you think the death of Osama bin Laden will make the world a safer or less safe place or will it make no difference?

Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
Make the world safer 12% 16% 12% 8%
Make the world less safe 19% 17% 20% 28%
Make no difference 63% 60% 65% 59%
Don’t know 6% 7% 2% 5%

The majority (63%) of respondents think that the death of Osama bin Laden will make no difference to making the world safer or less safe. 12% think it will make the world safer and 19% think it will make the world less safe.

28% of Greens voters and 23% of those aged 55+ think it will make the world less safe.

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