bloke voters, Bradley Effect, EMC, Essential Media, Essential Report, female PM, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, peter lewis, The Drum
First Published on The Drum 23/11/2010
As if dealing with four independent blokes, a Green bloke and a blokey bloke in charge of the Opposition is not enough, now Julia Gillard is developing a problem with blokes outside the Parliament.
Having politely indicated that they were happy with a female Prime Minister in the lead-up to the federal election, this week’s Essential Report picks up sharp moves in the attitudes of the brotherhood.
In the absence of any compelling policy development to explain the surge, we are left with the Bradley Effect, the theory created to explain why an African-American candidate lost the 1982 race for Governor of California despite having a massive lead in the polls.
The details of the Bradley Effect later, first some numbers from this week’s Essential Report.
2PP, EMC, ER, essential report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,869
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 39% | 41% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| National | 2% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 41% | 44% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
| Labor | 40% | 41% | 39% | 39% | 38% |
| Greens | 10% | 8% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
| Labor | 52% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
EMC, essential report, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | 9 Aug 10 | 16 Aug 10 | 20 Sep 10 | 18 Oct 10 | 22 Nov 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 45% | 46% | 47% | 49% | 45% | 94% | 6% | 76% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 33% | 35% | 35% | 33% | 34% | 1% | 78% | 3% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 21% | 5% | 17% | 21% | 23% |
45% (down 4%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 34% (up 1%) prefer Tony Abbott – a closing of the gap from 16% to 11% since last month’s figures.
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 41%/40% and women 49%/28%.
EMC, ER, essential report, Greens, Interest rates, Labor, Liberal, rate increases, rate rises, rates competition, Reserve Bank
Q. If there was more competition between Australian banks, do you think this would stop the banks increasing interest rates by more than the Reserve Bank rate increases?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 47% | 48% | 50% | 55% |
| No | 31% | 31% | 34% | 18% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 22% | 16% | 27% |
47% think that if there was more competition between Australian banks, this would stop the banks increasing interest rates by more than the Reserve Bank rate increases while 31% disagree.
Older people and those on lower incomes were split in their opinions – for those aged 55+, 41% agreed and 38% disagreed while 41% of those on incomes under $600pw disagreed and 38% agreed.
Australian banking industry, banking, banking issues, EMC, ER, essential report, Greens, Joe Hockey, Labor, Liberal, Wayne Swan
Q. Who would you trust most to deal with issues affecting the Australian banking industry – the Treasurer Wayne Swan and the Labor Party or the shadow Treasurer Joe Hockey and the Liberal Party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Wayne Swan and the Labor Party | 33% | 69% | 5% | 52% |
| Joe Hockey and the Liberal Party | 38% | 5% | 80% | 13% |
| Don’t know | 29% | 26% | 14% | 35% |
38% have most trust in Joe Hockey and the Liberal Party to handle issues affecting the banking industry and 33% trust Wayne Swan and the Labor Party.
Those aged 55+ trust Joe Hockey more (47% to 35%) while those on incomes under $600pw trust Wayne Swan more (42% to 38%)
EMC, ER, essential report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, same sex marriage
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should be allowed to marry | 53% | 57% | 45% | 80% |
| Should not be allowed to marry | 36% | 32% | 45% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 10% | 10% | 8% |
Same-sex marriage is supported by just over half (53%) of respondents and 36% are opposed.
Those most likely to think people of the same sex should be allowed to marry are female (59%), aged under 55 (60%) and Greens voters (80%).
Those most likely to think people of the same sex should not be allowed to marry are male (42%), aged 55+ (57%) and Liberal/National voters (45%).
EMC, Essential Media, Essential Report, Hockey, Howard, IR agenda, Labor, Liberal, peter lewis, The Drum
First Published on The Drum 09/11/2010
Nations may rise and fall by the sweep of history but governments are decided at the kitchen table, where all politics becomes not just local, but personal.
This is the place where bills and mortgage payments are pored over, family budgets are scrutinised, jobs and school are discussed. It is the space in family life where things have to add up.
Anyone trying to dig Labor out of its current hole could start by turning their attention to the kitchen table, because if this week’s Essential Report is anything to go by, Labor is in the middle of an increasingly messy food-fight.
Comments »
Q. Thinking about the Federal Parliament, how much difference do you think there is between the policies of the Labor Party and the Liberal Party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Very little difference | 29% | 30% | 20% | 51% |
| Some difference | 43% | 50% | 45% | 35% |
| A lot of difference | 19% | 15% | 31% | 4% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 5% | 5% | 10% |
Q. Do you think that in the last few years, the policies of the Labor Party and the Liberal Party have become more similar or do you think their policies have been moving apart?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Become more similar | 51% | 54% | 50% | 63% |
| Moving further apart | 17% | 16% | 23% | 5% |
| No change | 21% | 23% | 19% | 19% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 7% | 8% | 13% |
Only 19% believe there is a lot of difference between the Labor and Liberal Parties and 29% think there is very little difference. Liberal/National voters (31% a lot of difference) are more likely to think there is a difference than Labor voters (15%). 37% of those aged under 35 think there is little difference.
51% think the Labor and Liberal Parties have become more similar and 17% think they are moving further apart. When this question was last asked in September 2009, 49% said the parties had become closer and 20% further apart. Comments »