Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,924 respondents

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Julia Gillard’s approval rating has improved since last month. 41% (up 6%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 51% (down 3%) disapprove – a 9 point change in net rating from -19 to -10. This is Julia Gillard’s best approval rating since May 2011.

87% of Labor voters approve (up 6%) and 9% disapprove (down 2%).

By gender – men 40% approve/54% disapprove, women 43% approve/47% disapprove.  In net terms this represents an improvement with men from -29 to -14 and with women from -7 to -4.

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

43% (up 3%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% (down 1%) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men are evenly split (at 40% each) and women prefer Julia Gillard 47%/33%. Compared to last month’s figures, Julia Gillard’s margin over Tony Abbott has changed 8 points in her favour among men (from 36%/44%) but is unchanged among women (from 44%/30%).

Compared to Abbott, Gillard is seen as more intelligent (+6%), a more capable leader (+6%) and good in a crisis (+8%).

Abbott is regarded by significantly more respondents to be arrogant (+17%), narrow minded (+13%), intolerant (+16%) and aggressive (+17%).

Since the last time the question was polled, Gillard has narrowed the gap on ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (moving from +11% in April compared to Abbott to -1% this week) as well as ‘understands the problem facing Australia’ (-8% in April 2012 to equal with Abbott this month).

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

Forty percent (40%) of respondents believe that Julia Gillard would make a better Prime Minister than Tony Abbott, up 4% from the last time the question was polled in August 2012.   Gillard has resumed the lead on Abbott as preferred Prime Minister, having dropped behind him after April 2012.

There was little change in favour of Abbott, with belief that Abbott would make a better Prime Minister changing just 1% from last month, down to 37%.

This week’s figures are fairly consistent with the results from the beginning of the year (39% in favour of Gillard, 36% in favour of Abbott).

Over the two years since July 2010, belief that Gillard would make a better Prime Minister has dropped 10 points from 50% to 40%, whilst belief that Abbott would make a better Prime Minister has equally increased 10 points from 27% to 37%.

Female respondents were more likely to regard Gillard as the better Prime Minister (44% Gillard / 30% Abbott) whereas male respondents were more likely to regard Abbott as the better Prime Minister (36% Gillard / 44% Abbott).

Q. Do you think the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more or less personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be?

51% think that the Prime Minister Julia Gillard has been subjected to more personal criticism than a male Prime Minister would be. 38% think she has received about the same level of personal criticism and 6% think she has received less.

61% of women think Julia Gillard has received more personal criticism but 54% of men think she has received about the same or less.

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

36% (down 1%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 38% (no change) prefer Tony Abbott.

Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/33% and women prefer Julia Gillard 39%/35%.

The PM is going to be chatting live on-line today at News.com, focused on the question of rising power prices. This should be a pretty straightforward issue, with facts guiding the discussion. But, The Empty Suit, Leader of the Coalition, is trying to muddle the issue…and who can blame him? He’s rolled the dice trying to scare the entire nation about the carbon tax — which is proving to be a non-event.

Yes, prices of electricity are going up. But, it’s pretty clear this has virtually nothing to do with the carbon tax.

Here is a pretty simple explanation from the PM, as a curtain-raiser to her on-line talk:

First, the states who own electricity network businesses are doing well out of it.

Take New South Wales: separate to carbon pricing, there’s been a 70 per cent increase in prices over four years. And there’s been a 60 per cent increase in the dividends that the NSW Government gets.

Second, meeting peak power costs too much. One quarter of your electricity bill, more than $500 a year for a typical family, is spent to meet the costs of peak events that last for less than two days each year in total. It’s like building a ten-lane freeway, but with two lanes that are only used or needed for one long weekend.

Third, customers need more choice. The states should sign up to the National Energy Customer Framework, with strong protections when people can’t pay their electricity bills and extra information to help customers get the best energy deal.

And finally, I am pushing for the whole electricity system to operate more efficiently and more effectively. I’d rather do this with the states. We’ll only use the big stick of stronger powers for the Energy Regulator and the ACCC if we have to.

In other words, it’s the electricity generating companies who are trying to sock us with costs for building up new capacity. In Queensland and Victoria, the power companies have not invested in new capacity since 1998 — and, as the PM points out, they now need to do so largely to absorb peak power needs for just a few days a year. That has zero to do with the carbon tax. None. Nada.

The Empty Suit, though, is in a real box. He has staked a huge part of his campaign on the “sky is falling” results from the carbon tax. So, when you listen to what he says now, pay very little attention because it’s not based on the real facts on the reason for the rise in electricity prices.

— Jonathan Tasini
@jonathantasini