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  • Sep, 2012

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 2,003 respondents

    First preference/leaning to

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

     

    2 weeks ago

    3/9/12

    Last week

    10/9/2012

    This week

    Liberal

    46%

    44%

    44%

    45%

    National

    3%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    Total Lib/Nat

    43.6%

    49%

    48%

    47%

    48%

    Labor

    38.0%

    32%

    34%

    34%

    34%

    Greens

    11.8%

    10%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    Other/Independent

    6.6%

    9%

    9%

    9%

    9%

     

    2PP

    Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago

     

    2 weeks ago

    3/9/12

    Last week

    10/9/2012

    This week

    Total Lib/Nat

    49.9%

    57%

    55%

    55%

    55%

    Labor

    50.1%

    43%

    45%

    45%

    45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

  • Sep, 2012

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    Leader Attributes – Julia Gillard

    Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?

     

    5 Jul 10

    4 Oct 10

    7 Feb 11

    27 Jun 11

    2 Apr 12

    17 Sept 12

    Change

    Intelligent

    87%

    81%

    75%

    73%

    61%

    68%

    +7%

    Hard-working

    89%

    82%

    76%

    75%

    65%

    69%

    +4%

    A capable leader

    72%

    59%

    52%

    42%

    38%

    43%

    +5%

    Arrogant

    37%

    39%

    44%

    48%

    53%

    46%

    -7%

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    35%

    44%

    50%

    60%

    65%

    56%

    -9%

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    68%

    55%

    52%

    44%

    41%

    43%

    +2%

    Visionary

    48%

    38%

    30%

    26%

    25%

    31%

    +6%

    Superficial

    51%

    52%

    54%

    46%

    -8%

    Good in a crisis

    61%

    46%

    46%

    41%

    36%

    43%

    +7%

    Narrow-minded

    28%

    35%

    43%

    46%

    53%

    46%

    -7%

    More honest than most politicians

    45%

    37%

    37%

    29%

    26%

    31%

    +5%

    Trustworthy

    49%

    42%

    40%

    30%

    25%

    30%

    +5%

    Intolerant

    37%

    Aggressive

    42%

    Erratic

    43%

    Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (69%), intelligent (68%) and out of touch with ordinary people (56%).    All positive leader attributes for Gillard moved up from the last time the question was polled in April 2012.   The biggest shifts on the positive attributes were on intelligent (+7%) and visionary (+6%).

    All negative attributes shifted down from April.  The attributes that had the largest shifts downwards were out of touch with ordinary people (-10%) and superficial (-8%).

  • Sep, 2012

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    Leader Attributes – Tony Abbott

    Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?

     

    5 Jul 10

    4 Oct 10

    7 Feb 11

    27 Jun 11

    2 Apr 12

    17 Sept 12

    Change

    Intelligent

    70%

    71%

    64%

    61%

    56%

    62%

    +6%

    Hard-working

    76%

    78%

    72%

    75%

    68%

    67%

    -1%

    A capable leader

    47%

    52%

    48%

    45%

    41%

    37%

    -4%

    Arrogant

    59%

    60%

    58%

    60%

    61%

    63%

    +2%

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    57%

    53%

    54%

    57%

    54%

    57%

    +3%

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    50%

    53%

    50%

    48%

    49%

    43%

    -6%

    Visionary

    32%

    31%

    27%

    27%

    26%

    29%

    +3%

    Superficial

    45%

    49%

    49%

    51%

    +2%

    Good in a crisis

    40%

    42%

    41%

    40%

    36%

    35%

    -1%

    Narrow-minded

    56%

    53%

    51%

    54%

    54%

    59%

    +5%

    More honest than most politicians

    33%

    32%

    31%

    32%

    30%

    27%

    -3%

    Trustworthy

    33%

    35%

    34%

    32%

    32%

    30%

    -2%

    Intolerant

    53%

    Aggressive

    59%

    Erratic

    51%

    Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (67%), intelligent (62%) and arrogant (63%).

    The biggest shifts in the leader attributes for Abbott were on intelligent (+6%), understandings the problems facing Australia (-6%), narrow minded (+5%) and a capable leader (-4%).

  • Sep, 2012

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    Leader Attributes – Comparisons

     

    Gillard

    Abbott

    Difference

    Intelligent

    68%

    62%

    +6%

    Hard-working

    69%

    67%

    +2%

    A capable leader

    43%

    37%

    +6%

    Arrogant

    46%

    63%

    -17%

    Out of touch with ordinary people

    56%

    57%

    -1%

    Understands the problems facing Australia

    43%

    43%

    Visionary

    31%

    29%

    +2%

    Superficial

    46%

    51%

    -5%

    Good in a crisis

    43%

    35%

    +8%

    Narrow-minded

    46%

    59%

    -13%

    More honest than most politicians

    31%

    27%

    +4%

    Trustworthy

    30%

    30%

    Intolerant

    37%

    53%

    -16%

    Aggressive

    42%

    59%

    -17%

    Erratic

    43%

    51%

    -8%

    Compared to Abbott, Gillard is seen as more intelligent (+6%), a more capable leader (+6%) and good in a crisis (+8%).

    Abbott is regarded by significantly more respondents to be arrogant (+17%), narrow minded (+13%), intolerant (+16%) and aggressive (+17%).

    Since the last time the question was polled, Gillard has narrowed the gap on ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (moving from +11% in April compared to Abbott to -1% this week) as well as ‘understands the problem facing Australia’ (-8% in April 2012 to equal with Abbott this month).

  • Sep, 2012

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    Attitudes to drug law enforcement

    Q. Do you have a close friend or relative (such as a sibling or child) that regularly uses, or regularly used, illegal drugs? 

     

    Total

    Yes

    17%

    No

    81%

    I’d prefer not to say

    2%

    Seventeen percent (17%) of respondents polled have a close friend or relative that regularly uses, or used, illegal drugs.  The vast majority did not (81%) and 2% elected not to say.

    Q. How would you describe the approach to drug law enforcement in Australia:

     

    Total

    Have a close friend or relative

    No close friend or relative

    Vote Labor

    Vote Lib/Nat

    Vote Greens

    Too harsh

    8%

    18%

    6%

    12%

    4%

    23%

    Too soft

    62%

    47%

    66%

    57%

    73%

    26%

    About right

    18%

    24%

    17%

    22%

    15%

    30%

    Don’t know

    11%

    11%

    12%

    10%

    8%

    21%

    The majority of respondents regard drug law enforcement in Australia to be too soft (62%), followed by 18% who believe it to be about right and 8% who see it as too harsh.

    Those with a close friend or relative that regularly uses were far more likely to regard drug law enforcement as too harsh (18%) or about right (24%).

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to regard drug law enforcement as too harsh (23%) whilst Coalition voters were by far the most likely to believe it to be too soft (73%).

  • Sep, 2012

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    Attitudes to decriminalization or legalization

    Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:

    Sample A (N= 468)

     

    Sample B (N=501)

     

    We should decriminalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

    8%

    We should legalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

    7%

    We should decriminalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

    29%

    We should legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

    30%

    We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

    53%

    We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

    57%

    None of the above

    10%

    None of the above

    7%

    The table above shows the results of a randomly split sample on attitudes to drug law reform. The total sample of 968 respondents was randomly split into two and asked a series of slightly different questions (Sample A and Sample B).  The difference between the two questions was use of language: in Sample A, ‘decriminalisation’ was used and in Sample B, ‘legalisation’ was instead used in its place.

    The results show no difference between the samples on the basis of language, as the variations in percentages can be attributed to margin of error for the sample size.

    Overall, we see that the most dominant attitude to drug law reform amongst both samples is to ‘prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use’ (53% Sample A, 57% Sample B).

    About a third of respondents in each sample believe that we should ‘decriminalise/legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking’ (29% Sample A, 30% Sample B).

  • Sep, 2012

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    Attitudes to decriminalization or legalization

    Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:

    Sample A (N= 468)

    Total

    Have a close friend or relative

    (n=91)

    No close friend or relative (n=368)

    Vote Labor

    (n=136)

    Vote Lib/Nat

    (n=209)

    Vote Greens

    (n=41)

    We should decriminalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

    8%

    7%

    8%

    10%

    6%

    5%

    We should decriminalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

    29%

    48%

    25%

    40%

    23%

    44%

    We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

    53%

    40%

    57%

    40%

    62%

    44%

    None of the above

    10%

    5%

    10%

    10%

    9%

    5%

    The largest portion of those respondents with a close friend or relative that regularly uses believe in decriminalizing small scale illegal drug use and possession (48%) compared with 29% of Sample A.

    The majority of those that did not have a close friend or relative that regularly uses believed in prohibition of all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia (57%).

    Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were by far the most likely to take the position of prohibition of all activities (62%).

  • Sep, 2012

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    Attitudes to decriminalization or legalization

    Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:

    Sample B (N=501)

    Total

     

    Have a close friend or relative

    (n=69)

    No close friend or relative

    (n=417)

    Vote Labor

    (n=159)

    Vote Lib/Nat

    (n=205)

    Vote Greens

    (n=40)

    We should legalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances.

    7%

    12%

    6%

    10%

    5%

    13%

    We should legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking.

    30%

    41%

    26%

    35%

    22%

    40%

    We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use.

    57%

     

    45%

    59%

    50%

    67%

    30%

    None of the above

    7%

    3%

    8%

    5%

    6%

    18%

    The largest portion of those respondents with a close friend or relative that regularly uses believe in prohibiting all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia (45%), followed by legalizing small scale illegal drug use and possession (41%), however this difference may be on account of margin of error in the small sub-sample size.

    Once again, Coalition voters were the most likely to take the view that ‘we should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia…’ (67%) compared to the rest of the sample by voting intention.

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