17 September 2012, 170912, 2PP, ALP, first preference vote, Greens, Labor, Liberal Party, two party preferred
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 2,003 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago
|
2 weeks ago 3/9/12 |
Last week 10/9/2012 |
This week |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
44% |
44% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
34% |
34% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago
|
2 weeks ago 3/9/12 |
Last week 10/9/2012 |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
57% |
55% |
55% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
43% |
45% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
17 September 2012, 170912, hard-working, intelligent, Julia Gillard attributes, out of touch with ordinary people, visionary
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Julia Gillard?
|
5 Jul 10 |
4 Oct 10 |
7 Feb 11 |
27 Jun 11 |
2 Apr 12 |
17 Sept 12 |
Change |
|
| Intelligent |
87% |
81% |
75% |
73% |
61% |
68% |
+7% |
| Hard-working |
89% |
82% |
76% |
75% |
65% |
69% |
+4% |
| A capable leader |
72% |
59% |
52% |
42% |
38% |
43% |
+5% |
| Arrogant |
37% |
39% |
44% |
48% |
53% |
46% |
-7% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
35% |
44% |
50% |
60% |
65% |
56% |
-9% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
68% |
55% |
52% |
44% |
41% |
43% |
+2% |
| Visionary |
48% |
38% |
30% |
26% |
25% |
31% |
+6% |
| Superficial |
|
|
51% |
52% |
54% |
46% |
-8% |
| Good in a crisis |
61% |
46% |
46% |
41% |
36% |
43% |
+7% |
| Narrow-minded |
28% |
35% |
43% |
46% |
53% |
46% |
-7% |
| More honest than most politicians |
45% |
37% |
37% |
29% |
26% |
31% |
+5% |
| Trustworthy |
49% |
42% |
40% |
30% |
25% |
30% |
+5% |
| Intolerant |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
37% |
|
| Aggressive |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
42% |
|
| Erratic |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
43% |
|
Gillard’s key attributes were hard-working (69%), intelligent (68%) and out of touch with ordinary people (56%). All positive leader attributes for Gillard moved up from the last time the question was polled in April 2012. The biggest shifts on the positive attributes were on intelligent (+7%) and visionary (+6%).
All negative attributes shifted down from April. The attributes that had the largest shifts downwards were out of touch with ordinary people (-10%) and superficial (-8%).
17 September 2012, 170912, arrogant, hard-working, intelligent, Tony Abbott attributes
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Opposition Leader, Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 10 |
4 Oct 10 |
7 Feb 11 |
27 Jun 11 |
2 Apr 12 |
17 Sept 12 |
Change |
|
| Intelligent |
70% |
71% |
64% |
61% |
56% |
62% |
+6% |
| Hard-working |
76% |
78% |
72% |
75% |
68% |
67% |
-1% |
| A capable leader |
47% |
52% |
48% |
45% |
41% |
37% |
-4% |
| Arrogant |
59% |
60% |
58% |
60% |
61% |
63% |
+2% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
57% |
53% |
54% |
57% |
54% |
57% |
+3% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
50% |
53% |
50% |
48% |
49% |
43% |
-6% |
| Visionary |
32% |
31% |
27% |
27% |
26% |
29% |
+3% |
| Superficial |
|
|
45% |
49% |
49% |
51% |
+2% |
| Good in a crisis |
40% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
36% |
35% |
-1% |
| Narrow-minded |
56% |
53% |
51% |
54% |
54% |
59% |
+5% |
| More honest than most politicians |
33% |
32% |
31% |
32% |
30% |
27% |
-3% |
| Trustworthy |
33% |
35% |
34% |
32% |
32% |
30% |
-2% |
| Intolerant |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
53% |
– |
| Aggressive |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
59% |
– |
| Erratic |
– |
– |
– |
– |
– |
51% |
– |
Abbott’s key attributes were hard-working (67%), intelligent (62%) and arrogant (63%).
The biggest shifts in the leader attributes for Abbott were on intelligent (+6%), understandings the problems facing Australia (-6%), narrow minded (+5%) and a capable leader (-4%).
17 September 2012, 170912, aggressive, arrogant, erratic, hard-working, intelligent, intolerant, Julia Gillard, superficial, tony abbott, trustworthy, visionary
|
Gillard |
Abbott |
Difference |
|
| Intelligent |
68% |
62% |
+6% |
| Hard-working |
69% |
67% |
+2% |
| A capable leader |
43% |
37% |
+6% |
| Arrogant |
46% |
63% |
-17% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
56% |
57% |
-1% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
43% |
43% |
– |
| Visionary |
31% |
29% |
+2% |
| Superficial |
46% |
51% |
-5% |
| Good in a crisis |
43% |
35% |
+8% |
| Narrow-minded |
46% |
59% |
-13% |
| More honest than most politicians |
31% |
27% |
+4% |
| Trustworthy |
30% |
30% |
– |
| Intolerant |
37% |
53% |
-16% |
| Aggressive |
42% |
59% |
-17% |
| Erratic |
43% |
51% |
-8% |
Compared to Abbott, Gillard is seen as more intelligent (+6%), a more capable leader (+6%) and good in a crisis (+8%).
Abbott is regarded by significantly more respondents to be arrogant (+17%), narrow minded (+13%), intolerant (+16%) and aggressive (+17%).
Since the last time the question was polled, Gillard has narrowed the gap on ‘out of touch with ordinary people’ (moving from +11% in April compared to Abbott to -1% this week) as well as ‘understands the problem facing Australia’ (-8% in April 2012 to equal with Abbott this month).
17 September 2012, 170912, about right, drug law enforcement, friends and relatives, illegal drugs, too harsh, too soft
Q. Do you have a close friend or relative (such as a sibling or child) that regularly uses, or regularly used, illegal drugs?
|
Total |
|
| Yes |
17% |
| No |
81% |
| I’d prefer not to say |
2% |
Seventeen percent (17%) of respondents polled have a close friend or relative that regularly uses, or used, illegal drugs. The vast majority did not (81%) and 2% elected not to say.
Q. How would you describe the approach to drug law enforcement in Australia:
|
Total |
Have a close friend or relative |
No close friend or relative |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Too harsh |
8% |
18% |
6% |
12% |
4% |
23% |
| Too soft |
62% |
47% |
66% |
57% |
73% |
26% |
| About right |
18% |
24% |
17% |
22% |
15% |
30% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
11% |
12% |
10% |
8% |
21% |
The majority of respondents regard drug law enforcement in Australia to be too soft (62%), followed by 18% who believe it to be about right and 8% who see it as too harsh.
Those with a close friend or relative that regularly uses were far more likely to regard drug law enforcement as too harsh (18%) or about right (24%).
Looking at the results by voting intention, Greens voters were the most likely to regard drug law enforcement as too harsh (23%) whilst Coalition voters were by far the most likely to believe it to be too soft (73%).
17 September 2012, 170912, decriminalisation, illegal drugs, legalisation
Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:
| Sample A (N= 468) |
|
Sample B (N=501) |
|
| We should decriminalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances. |
8% |
We should legalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances. |
7% |
| We should decriminalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking. |
29% |
We should legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking. |
30% |
| We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use. |
53% |
We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use. |
57%
|
| None of the above |
10% |
None of the above |
7% |
The table above shows the results of a randomly split sample on attitudes to drug law reform. The total sample of 968 respondents was randomly split into two and asked a series of slightly different questions (Sample A and Sample B). The difference between the two questions was use of language: in Sample A, ‘decriminalisation’ was used and in Sample B, ‘legalisation’ was instead used in its place.
The results show no difference between the samples on the basis of language, as the variations in percentages can be attributed to margin of error for the sample size.
Overall, we see that the most dominant attitude to drug law reform amongst both samples is to ‘prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use’ (53% Sample A, 57% Sample B).
About a third of respondents in each sample believe that we should ‘decriminalise/legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking’ (29% Sample A, 30% Sample B).
17 September 2012, 170912, illegal drugs, illicit drugs, possession, production and trafficking
Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:
| Sample A (N= 468) |
Total |
Have a close friend or relative (n=91) |
No close friend or relative (n=368) |
Vote Labor (n=136) |
Vote Lib/Nat (n=209) |
Vote Greens (n=41) |
| We should decriminalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances. |
8% |
7% |
8% |
10% |
6% |
5% |
| We should decriminalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking. |
29% |
48% |
25% |
40% |
23% |
44% |
| We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use. |
53% |
40% |
57% |
40% |
62% |
44% |
| None of the above |
10% |
5% |
10% |
10% |
9% |
5% |
The largest portion of those respondents with a close friend or relative that regularly uses believe in decriminalizing small scale illegal drug use and possession (48%) compared with 29% of Sample A.
The majority of those that did not have a close friend or relative that regularly uses believed in prohibition of all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia (57%).
Looking at the results by voting intention, Coalition voters were by far the most likely to take the position of prohibition of all activities (62%).
17 September 2012, 170912, black market trade, decriminalization, illegal drugs, legalization, trafficking
Q. Thinking about the issue of illegal drugs in Australia, which has one of the highest per capita illicit drug use in the world, please indicate which position is closer to your view:
| Sample B (N=501) |
Total
|
Have a close friend or relative (n=69) |
No close friend or relative (n=417) |
Vote Labor (n=159) |
Vote Lib/Nat (n=205) |
Vote Greens (n=40) |
| We should legalise all illegal drugs (including production and trafficking within Australia) to reduce the unregulated black market trade in these substances. |
7% |
12% |
6% |
10% |
5% |
13% |
| We should legalise small scale illegal drug use and possession, but maintain criminal prohibitions on production and trafficking. |
30% |
41% |
26% |
35% |
22% |
40% |
| We should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia, including production, trafficking, large and small-scale production and use. |
57%
|
45% |
59% |
50% |
67% |
30% |
| None of the above |
7% |
3% |
8% |
5% |
6% |
18% |
The largest portion of those respondents with a close friend or relative that regularly uses believe in prohibiting all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia (45%), followed by legalizing small scale illegal drug use and possession (41%), however this difference may be on account of margin of error in the small sub-sample size.
Once again, Coalition voters were the most likely to take the view that ‘we should prohibit all activities related to illegal drugs in Australia…’ (67%) compared to the rest of the sample by voting intention.