Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,906 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week
|
This week |
| Liberal | 45% | 44% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 48% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 34% | 33% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 9% | 10% | 11% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
Opinion of School Building Program
Q. Overall, how would you rate the Federal Government’s BER program to fund new school buildings which was introduced during the GFC?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Total with children at school | Children at primary school | Children at secondary school | |
| Total good | 30% | 49% | 17% | 39% | 43% | 49% | 38% |
| Total poor | 31% | 10% | 50% | 18% | 27% | 27% | 26% |
| Very good | 7% | 15% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 12% | 11% |
| Good | 23% | 34% | 14% | 34% | 32% | 37% | 27% |
| Neither good nor poor | 15% | 21% | 22% | 27% | 21% | 17% | 24% |
| Poor | 15% | 8% | 20% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 11% |
| Very poor | 16% | 2% | 30% | 5% | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 19% | 11% | 16% | 10% | 6% | 12% |
Respondents were divided over the Federal Government’s BER program to fund new school buildings – 30% thought it was good and 31% poor. Opinions were closely related to voting intention- 49% of Labor voters thought the program was good and 50% of Liberal/National voters thought it was poor.
Households with children at primary or secondary schools were more positive – especially those with children at primary school. 43% of all those with school children in their household and 49% of those with primary students thought it was good.
Australia’s Best Prime Minister
Q. Choosing from the following list, who do you think has been Australia’s best Prime Minister?
| Term of office | Total
19 Jan 2009 |
Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ | |
| John Curtin | 7 Oct 1941 – 5 Jul 1945 | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Ben Chifley | 13 Jul 1945 – 19 Dec 1949 | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Robert Menzies | 19 Dec 1949 – 26 Jan 1966 | 11% | 11% | 4% | 18% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 21% |
| Harold Holt | 26 Jan 1966 – 19 Dec 1967 | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | – | 1% | 1% | – |
| John Gorton | 10 Jan 1968 – 10 Mar1971 | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| William McMahon | 10 Mar 1971 – 5 Dec 1972 | 1% | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Gough Whitlam | 5 Dec 1972 – 11 Nov 1975 | 9% | 9% | 15% | 1% | 18% | 8% | 9% | 10% |
| Malcolm Fraser | 11 Nov 1975 – 11 Mar 1983 | 3% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 6% | – | 3% | 6% |
| Bob Hawke | 11 Mar 1983 – 20 Dec 1991 | 12% | 15% | 23% | 5% | 22% | 12% | 21% | 10% |
| Paul Keating | 20 Dec 1991 – 11 Mar 1996 | 8% | 6% | 12% | 2% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 4% |
| John Howard | 11 Mar 1996 – 3 Dec 2007 | 28% | 33% | 8% | 61% | 5% | 33% | 31% | 35% |
| Kevin Rudd | 3 Dec 2007 – 24 Jun 2010 | 20% | 15% | 21% | 6% | 27% | 25% | 15% | 6% |
| Julia Gillard | 24 Jun 2010 – present | na | 3% | 8% | – | 4% | 6% | 2% | 2% |
Note: Percentages based on those who gave an answer.
33% thought that John Howard has been Australia’s best Prime Minister, 15% chose Kevin Rudd and 15% Bob Hawke.
Among Liberal/National voters, 61% chose John Howard and 18% Robert Menzies. With 23%, Bob Hawke received the highest rating from Labor voters, just ahead of Kevin Rudd on 21% with Gough Whitlam on 15%. Greens voters favoured Kevin Rudd (27%) and Bob Hawke (22%).
While John Howard received similar scores across age groups, the 18-34 group were more likely to favour Kevin Rudd (25%), the 35-54’s Bob Hawke (21%) and the 55+ group Robert Menzies (21%). Compared to the results when this question was asked 3 years ago (when Kevin Rudd was Prime Minister), John Howard (+5%) and Bob Hawke (+3%) have improved their ratings while Kevin Rudd’s has dropped 5%.
Next Election
Q. Do you think the Labor Government should run its full term until 2013 when the next Federal election is due or should a new election be held now?
| 5 Sept 11 | 5 Dec 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should run to 2013 | 40% | 47% | 48% | 80% | 19% | 82% |
| Should hold election now | 48% | 41% | 41% | 12% | 73% | 11% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 7% |
48% think that the Labor Government should be allowed to run its full term through to 2013 and 41% think a new election should be held. This is very similar to the results of this question when last asked in early December. Views closely follow voting voting intentions.
Most Important Roles of Government
Q. From the following list, what do you think are the three most important roles of the Federal Government? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
| Most important | Second | Third | Total | |
| Delivering basic services like health and education | 18% | 27% | 20% | 65% |
| Managing the economy in uncertain economic times | 20% | 15% | 14% | 49% |
| Making the big decisions for the nations future | 20% | 12% | 12% | 44% |
| Ensuring that all Australians benefit from Australia’s wealth | 13% | 10% | 11% | 34% |
| Supporting Australian industries to provide jobs | 8% | 12% | 12% | 32% |
| Reducing government spending so money can be returned back to taxpayers | 9% | 8% | 8% | 25% |
| Investing in infrastructure including road rail and broadband | 3% | 7% | 10% | 20% |
| Providing support to the most disadvantaged | 4% | 4% | 8% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 5% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
Respondents considered that the most important roles of the Federal Government were delivering basic services like health and hospitals (65%), managing the economy in uncertain economic times (49%) and making the big decisions for the nations future (44%).
The least important roles were providing support for the most disadvantaged (16%), investing in infrastructure including road rail and broadband (20%) and reducing government spending so money can be returned to taxpayers (25%).
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| First | Second | Third | Total | 6 June 11 | 24 Jan 11 | 11 Oct 10 | 25 Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 39% | 16% | 7% | 62% | 61% | 65% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 4% | 8% | 10% | 22% | 26% | 26% | 32% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 12% | 18% | 17% | 47% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 4% | 5% | 4% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 3% | 4% | 4% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 11% | * |
| Political leadership | 7% | 6% | 5% | 18% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 3% | 4% | 3% | 10% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 2% | 4% | 5% | 11% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 11% | 12% | 13% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | * | 2% | 2% | 4% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 3% | 4% | 6% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 3% | 5% | 8% | 16% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 1% | 1% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 5% | * |
| Managing population growth | 1% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 12% | 11% | 10% | * |
*Not asked
62% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 47% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 36% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since June, there have been only minor changes in these figures – there has been an increase in the importance of Australian jobs and protection of local industries (+4%) and declines in the importance of addressing climate change (-5%), ensuring a quality education for all children (-4%), managing population growth (-4%) and security and the war on terrorism (-4%).
Return to Surplus
Q. Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?
| April 4 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Return to surplus by 2012/13, cut services, raise taxes | 14% | 13% | 13% | 19% | 7% |
| Delay return to surplus, maintain services, invest in infrastructure | 69% | 71% | 76% | 68% | 82% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 15% | 11% | 13% | 11% |
13% support the return to surplus by 2012/13 if it means cutting services and raising taxes and 69% think the Government should delay the return to surplus and maintain services and investment. Opinions are unchanged since this question was asked in April.
No more than 19% of any demographic or voter group supported the return to surplus by 2012/13.
Measures Government should take to Return to Surplus
Q. In order to meet their commitment to return to surplus in 2012-13, which measures should the Government take?
| April 4 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Increase taxes for big corporations | 63% | 72% | 81% | 65% | 86% |
| Reduce tax breaks for high income earners | 51% | 59% | 63% | 57% | 64% |
| Reduce defence spending | 32% | 37% | 32% | 37% | 67% |
| Cut “middle class welfare” such as the Baby Bonus, first home buyers grant and Family Tax Benefit payments | 36% | 35% | 31% | 40% | 29% |
| Cut spending on unemployment and disability benefits | 21% | 21% | 15% | 28% | 13% |
| It does not need to return to surplus so quickly | 38% | 58% | 65% | 56% | 61% |
The most favoured measures for returning the budget to surplus were increasing taxes for big corporations (72%) and reducing tax breaks for high-income earners (59%).
Labor voters were more likely to support increasing taxes for big corporations (81%).
Liberal/National voters were more likely to support cutting spending on unemployment and welfare benefits (28%), and cutting “middle class welfare” (40%).
Since this question was last asked in April, support has increased for increasing taxes for big corporations (+9%) and reducing tax breaks for high income earners (+8%).
However, the major change since April has been a substantial increase in support for the position that the Government does not need to return to surplus so quickly – up 20% to 58%. This position is supported by 65% of Labor voters and 56% of Liberal/National voters.
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