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  • Mar, 2011

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    NSW State Voting Intention

    Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    First preference /leaning to Total Men Women Sydney Other NSW Aged 18-34 Aged 35-54 Aged 55+
    Sample 967 483 484 615 352 300 396 271
    Labor 24% 24% 23% 21% 27% 25% 23% 23%
    Liberal/National 54% 54% 53% 57% 47% 50% 53% 58%
    Greens 12% 12% 13% 12% 13% 15% 13% 9%
    Independent/Other 11% 10% 11% 9% 13% 10% 11% 11%
    2PP
    Labor 35% 35% 35% 31% 41% 38% 35% 32%
    Liberal/National 65% 65% 65% 69% 59% 62% 65% 68%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.

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  • Mar, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,884

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 41% 42% 44% 45%
    National 3% 3% 3% 2%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 44% 45% 47% 47%
    Labor 38.0 40% 37% 36% 35%
    Greens 11.8 10% 10% 10% 10%
    Other/Independent 6.6 6% 7% 7% 8%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 50% 52% 53% 54%
    Labor 50.1% 50% 48% 47% 46%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Mar, 2011

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

    Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
    31 May

    2010

    5 Jul 19 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar
    Total approve 41% 48% 52% 46% 45% 45% 43% 43% 51% 48% 41%
    Total disapprove 47% 27% 30% 40% 37% 37% 38% 40% 36% 41% 46%
    Strongly approve 7% 14% 11% 13% 12% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9% 7%
    Approve 34% 34% 41% 33% 33% 36% 36% 33% 43% 39% 34%
    Disapprove 25% 13% 17% 24% 21% 20% 23% 24% 24% 25% 22%
    Strongly disapprove 22% 14% 13% 16% 16% 17% 15% 16% 12% 16% 24%
    Don’t know 12% 26% 18% 13% 19% 18% 18% 17% 14% 11% 13%

    41% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 46% (up 5%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +7 to -5 over the last 4 weeks.

    87% of Labor voters approve and 7% disapprove.

    By gender – men 41% approve/49% disapprove, women 42% approve/43% disapprove.

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  • Mar, 2011

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

    18 Jan

    2010

    29 Mar 5 Jul 16 Aug 20 Sep 18 Oct 22 Nov 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar
    Total approve 37% 33% 37% 41% 43% 39% 40% 39% 42% 38% 38%
    Total disapprove 37% 50% 47% 44% 37% 45% 40% 39% 37% 46% 47%
    Strongly approve 5% 8% 8% 9% 12% 8% 6% 9% 7% 8% 7%
    Approve 32% 25% 29% 32% 31% 31% 34% 30% 35% 30% 31%
    Disapprove 20% 28% 23% 22% 21% 22% 22% 21% 22% 24% 24%
    Strongly disapprove 17% 22% 24% 22% 16% 23% 18% 18% 15% 22% 23%
    Don’t know 26% 16% 16% 15% 19% 17% 19% 22% 20% 16% 16%

    38% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 47% (up 1%) disapprove.

    70% of Coalition voters approve and 17% disapprove.

    By gender – men 41% approve/45% disapprove, women 33% approve/49% disapprove.

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  • Mar, 2011

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

    5 Jul 2010 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 2011 14 Mar 2011 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

    21 Jun 10

    Julia Gillard 53% 47% 45% 47% 48% 44% 88% 8% 73% 47%
    Tony Abbott 26% 35% 34% 32% 31% 33% 3% 70% 4% 30%
    Don’t know 21% 18% 21% 21% 20% 23% 9% 22% 22% 23%

    44% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 6% on last month’s figures (from +17% to +11%).

    Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 42%/37% and women 46%/29%.

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  • Mar, 2011

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    Same Sex Marriage

    Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?

    15 Nov 2010 14 Mar 2011 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Should be allowed to marry 53% 49% 54% 40% 78%
    Should not be allowed to marry 36% 40% 36% 50% 16%
    Don’t know 11% 10% 10% 10% 6%

    Support for same-sex marriage has declined a little since this question was last asked in November. 49% (down 4%) agree people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 40% (up 4%) disagree.

    By gender – 43% of men support same sex marriage and 47% oppose, while 56% of women support and 34% oppose.

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  • Mar, 2011

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    Carbon Pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

    Last week This week Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total support 35% 38% 55% 20% 78%
    Total oppose 48% 49% 32% 73% 11%
    Strongly support 9% 12% 17% 4% 39%
    Support 26% 26% 38% 16% 39%
    Oppose 19% 17% 17% 20% 6%
    Strongly oppose 29% 32% 15% 53% 5%
    Don’t know 18% 13% 13% 8% 11%

    Support for the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme has increased a little since this question was asked last week – from 35% to 38%. The change is due to some previously “undecided” respondents forming a view – opposition has increased 1% and “don’t know” decreased by 5%.

    There is majority support from Labor and Greens voters while 73% of Liberal/National voters are opposed.

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  • Mar, 2011

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    Carbon Pricing with Compensation

    Q. Would you support or oppose this carbon pricing scheme if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total support 54% 78% 34% 80%
    Total oppose 30% 11% 51% 7%
    Strongly support 17% 29% 6% 39%
    Support 37% 49% 28% 41%
    Oppose 14% 8% 22% 3%
    Strongly oppose 16% 3% 29% 4%
    Don’t know 17% 11% 15% 13%

    There was a substantial shift in opinion of the Government’s carbon pricing scheme when respondents were told that the money paid by big polluting industries would be used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices.

    Support increased from 38% to 54% and opposition declined from 49% to 30%. The major shift occurred with Labor voters where support increased by 23% to 78%.  Support from Liberal/National voters increased from 20% to 34% while opposition declined 22% to 51%.

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