2PP, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Independent, Labor, Liberal, NSW, NSW 2PP, NSW Election, NSW vote, NSW voting intention, Polling, polls, Voting intention
Q. If a State Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
| First preference /leaning to | Total | Men | Women | Sydney | Other NSW | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-54 | Aged 55+ |
| Sample | 967 | 483 | 484 | 615 | 352 | 300 | 396 | 271 |
| Labor | 24% | 24% | 23% | 21% | 27% | 25% | 23% | 23% |
| Liberal/National | 54% | 54% | 53% | 57% | 47% | 50% | 53% | 58% |
| Greens | 12% | 12% | 13% | 12% | 13% | 15% | 13% | 9% |
| Independent/Other | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 10% | 11% | 11% |
| 2PP | ||||||||
| Labor | 35% | 35% | 35% | 31% | 41% | 38% | 35% | 32% |
| Liberal/National | 65% | 65% | 65% | 69% | 59% | 62% | 65% | 68% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by separately distributing the votes of the Greens and the Independents/other parties according to their preferences at the previous election. This calculation excludes exhausted votes.
2PP, Election, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,884
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 41% | 42% | 44% | 45% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 44% | 45% | 47% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 40% | 37% | 36% | 35% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 50% | 52% | 53% | 54% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 50% | 48% | 47% | 46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
ALP, Approval of Julia Gillard, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, Labor, Labor leadership, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
5 Jul | 19 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% |
41% (down 7%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 46% (up 5%) disapprove – a change in net rating from +7 to -5 over the last 4 weeks.
87% of Labor voters approve and 7% disapprove.
By gender – men 41% approve/49% disapprove, women 42% approve/43% disapprove.
Approval of Tony Abbott, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Liberal, Liberal Party, Opposition leader, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
29 Mar | 5 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | |
| Total approve | 37% | 33% | 37% | 41% | 43% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 38% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 50% | 47% | 44% | 37% | 45% | 40% | 39% | 37% | 46% | 47% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 12% | 8% | 6% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% |
| Approve | 32% | 25% | 29% | 32% | 31% | 31% | 34% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 28% | 23% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 22% | 24% | 22% | 16% | 23% | 18% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 23% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 19% | 17% | 19% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 16% |
38% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 47% (up 1%) disapprove.
70% of Coalition voters approve and 17% disapprove.
By gender – men 41% approve/45% disapprove, women 33% approve/49% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb 2011 | 14 Mar 2011 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 45% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 88% | 8% | 73% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 35% | 34% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 3% | 70% | 4% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 9% | 22% | 22% | 23% |
44% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 33% prefer Tony Abbott – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 6% on last month’s figures (from +17% to +11%).
Men favour Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 42%/37% and women 46%/29%.
EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, gay and lesbian, gay rites, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Marriage laws, Marriage rites, Polling, polls, same sex marriage
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
| 15 Nov 2010 | 14 Mar 2011 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Should be allowed to marry | 53% | 49% | 54% | 40% | 78% |
| Should not be allowed to marry | 36% | 40% | 36% | 50% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 10% | 10% | 10% | 6% |
Support for same-sex marriage has declined a little since this question was last asked in November. 49% (down 4%) agree people of the same sex should be allowed to marry and 40% (up 4%) disagree.
By gender – 43% of men support same sex marriage and 47% oppose, while 56% of women support and 34% oppose.
carbon pollution, Carbon Pricing, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Polling, polls
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| Last week | This week | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 38% | 55% | 20% | 78% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 32% | 73% | 11% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 12% | 17% | 4% | 39% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 38% | 16% | 39% |
| Oppose | 19% | 17% | 17% | 20% | 6% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 32% | 15% | 53% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 11% |
Support for the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme has increased a little since this question was asked last week – from 35% to 38%. The change is due to some previously “undecided” respondents forming a view – opposition has increased 1% and “don’t know” decreased by 5%.
There is majority support from Labor and Greens voters while 73% of Liberal/National voters are opposed.
carbon pollution, Carbon Pricing, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Polling, polls
Q. Would you support or oppose this carbon pricing scheme if the money paid by big polluting industries was used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 54% | 78% | 34% | 80% |
| Total oppose | 30% | 11% | 51% | 7% |
| Strongly support | 17% | 29% | 6% | 39% |
| Support | 37% | 49% | 28% | 41% |
| Oppose | 14% | 8% | 22% | 3% |
| Strongly oppose | 16% | 3% | 29% | 4% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 11% | 15% | 13% |
There was a substantial shift in opinion of the Government’s carbon pricing scheme when respondents were told that the money paid by big polluting industries would be used to compensate low and middle income earners and small businesses for increased prices.
Support increased from 38% to 54% and opposition declined from 49% to 30%. The major shift occurred with Labor voters where support increased by 23% to 78%. Support from Liberal/National voters increased from 20% to 34% while opposition declined 22% to 51%.