Essential Report

2012 Outlook – Politicians

Dec 19, 2011

Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

Total good

Dec 10

Total bad

Dec10

Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
Julia Gillard 28% 36% 19% 56% 4% 15% 17% 29% 27% 9%
Tony Abbott 29% 27% 24% 38% 6% 18% 29% 24% 14% 10%
Kevin Rudd 21% 30% 30% 25% 5% 25% 35% 17% 8% 10%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 21% 22% 22% 3% 19% 42% 17% 5% 14%
Bob Brown 20% 30% 16% 39% 2% 14% 31% 20% 19% 14%

Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).

45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.

Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.

Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).

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The Past Year – Politicians

Dec 12, 2011

Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

Total good

(Dec 10)

Total bad

(Dec 10)

Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
Julia Gillard 49% 25% 21% 57% 3% 18% 16% 35% 22% 6%
Bob Brown 38% 21% 32% 27% 8% 24% 26% 14% 13% 16%
Tony Abbott 30% 33% 21% 38% 2% 19% 32% 25% 13% 8%
Malcolm Turnbull 10% 43% 17% 23% 2% 15% 45% 16% 7% 17%
Kevin Rudd 10% 70% 31% 30% 5% 26% 31% 22% 8% 7%

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad
Julia Gillard 21% 57% 41% 36% 10% 77% 29% 43%
Bob Brown 32% 27% 37% 19% 25% 40% 66% 4%
Tony Abbott 21% 38% 9% 57% 39% 18% 7% 64%
Malcolm Turnbull 17% 23% 18% 21% 18% 23% 23% 22%
Kevin Rudd 31% 30% 37% 24% 31% 38% 29% 25%

Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.

Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.

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Best Leader for GFC

Sep 5, 2011

Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Kevin Rudd 24% 34% 13% 37%
Tony Abbott 20% 4% 44%
Julia Gillard 13% 42% 1% 18%
Malcolm Turnbull 13% 7% 17% 17%
Joe Hockey 7% 1% 11% 3%
Don’t know 22% 12% 15% 25%

24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.

Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.

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Preferred Leader of the Labor Party

Aug 3, 2011

Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Kevin Rudd 37% 43% 36% 35% 40% 33% 40% 39% 30%
Julia Gillard 12% 31% 2% 24% 10% 13% 12% 12% 12%
Malcolm Turnbull 11% 6% 17% 7% 12% 10% 10% 9% 15%
Stephen Smith 7% 6% 9% 2% 7% 6% 3% 6% 12%
Bob Brown 3% 2% 2% 11% 3% 3% 2% 3% 4%
Greg Combet 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 3%
Bill Shorten 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 1% 1% 2% 2%
Don’t know 28% 9% 32% 18% 22% 33% 31% 28% 22%

37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.

Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.

Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).

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Vote if Malcolm Turnbull Liberal Leader

Jun 27, 2011

Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?

First preference Total Gave vote
Liberal 44% 49%
National 4% 4%
Total Lib/Nat 48% 53%
Labor 28% 31%
Greens 7% 8%
Other/Independent 7% 8%
Don’t know 10%

If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.

In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.

Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters  – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.

The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.

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Best Leader of the Liberal Party

May 30, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

27 Sep 2010 28 Feb 2011 30 May 2011
Total Total Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Tony Abbott 26% 24% 22% 10% 40% 7%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 18% 25% 35% 19% 33%
Joe Hockey 15% 16% 17% 13% 22% 18%
Julie Bishop 5% 4% 3% 4% 2% 1%
Andrew Robb na 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%
Someone else na 14% 13% 17% 7% 16%
Don’t know 33% 22% 19% 20% 8% 22%

25% (+7%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 22% (-3%) prefer Tony Abbott and 17% (+1%) Joe Hockey.

Among Liberal/National voters, 40% prefer Tony Abbott, 22% Joe Hockey and 19% Malcolm Turnbull.

Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 25% of men and 24% of women, Tony Abbott by 24% of men and 19% of women.

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Liberal party Leadership

Feb 28, 2011

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

27 Sep 10 28 February 2011
Total Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Tony Abbott 26% 24% 9% 45% 1%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 18% 24% 16% 29%
Joe Hockey 15% 16% 18% 17% 17%
Julie Bishop 5% 4% 6% 2% 4%
Andrew Robb na 1% 1% 1% 2%
Someone else na 14% 18% 8% 27%
Don’t know 33% 22% 23% 10% 20%

24% of respondents believed that Tony Abbott is the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 16% Joe Hockey.

Tony Abbott is preferred by 45% of Liberal/National voters while Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by Labor (24%) and Greens voters (29%).

Tony Abbott is more preferred by men (30%) – women are split between Tony Abbott (19%) and Joe Hockey (19%). 23% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull compared to 14% of women.

These figures are little changed since the question was last asked in September 2010.

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2011 Outlook – Politicians

Dec 20, 2010

Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

Total good Total poor Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
Julia Gillard 28% 36% 5% 23% 23% 26% 10% 12%
Tony Abbott 29% 27% 5% 24% 32% 20% 7% 13%
Kevin Rudd 21% 30% 3% 18% 35% 21% 9% 14%
Malcolm Turnbull 20% 21% 3% 17% 41% 17% 4% 18%
Bob Brown 20% 30% 4% 16% 31% 18% 12% 19%

There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.

Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).

Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to

-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).

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