2012, 2012 Outlook, Bob Brown, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, leadership, malcolm turnbull, politicians, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
Bob Brown, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, malcolm turnbull, Past Year, politicians, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 3% | 18% | 16% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 21% | 38% | 2% | 19% | 32% | 25% | 13% | 8% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 31% | 30% | 5% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 21% | 57% | 41% | 36% | 10% | 77% | 29% | 43% |
| Bob Brown | 32% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 25% | 40% | 66% | 4% |
| Tony Abbott | 21% | 38% | 9% | 57% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 64% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 17% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Kevin Rudd | 31% | 30% | 37% | 24% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 25% |
Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.
Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.
economy, Essential Report, GFC, global financial crisis, Greens, Joe Hockey, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, leadership, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, Nationals, Polling, tony abbott
Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Kevin Rudd | 24% | 34% | 13% | 37% |
| Tony Abbott | 20% | 4% | 44% | – |
| Julia Gillard | 13% | 42% | 1% | 18% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 13% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
| Joe Hockey | 7% | 1% | 11% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.
Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.
Bill Shorten, Bob Brown, Greg Combet, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, leadership, malcolm turnbull, Network Ten, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Stephen Smith
Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Kevin Rudd | 37% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 39% | 30% |
| Julia Gillard | 12% | 31% | 2% | 24% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 11% | 6% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 15% |
| Stephen Smith | 7% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| Bob Brown | 3% | 2% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Greg Combet | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Bill Shorten | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 28% | 9% | 32% | 18% | 22% | 33% | 31% | 28% | 22% |
37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.
Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.
Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).
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Q. If Malcolm Turnbull was the leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party), to which party will you probably give your first preference vote if a Federal Election was held today? If not sure, which party would you lean toward?
| First preference | Total | Gave vote |
| Liberal | 44% | 49% |
| National | 4% | 4% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 48% | 53% |
| Labor | 28% | 31% |
| Greens | 7% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 8% |
| Don’t know | 10% |
If Malcolm Turnbull was leader of the Liberal Party (and Julia Gillard was leader of the Labor Party) 31% said they would give their first preference vote to Labor (down 1%) and 53% to the Liberal or National Parties (up 5%). The Greens vote drops 3% to 8%.
In two party preferred terms, this equates to 41% Labor/59% Liberal/National – a swing of 4% to Liberal/National.
Most of the increased Liberal/National vote comes from Labor voters – 13% of Labor voters said they would vote Liberal if Malcolm Turnbull was leader.
The group with the largest shift to Liberal/National was people on higher incomes.
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Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?
| 27 Sep 2010 | 28 Feb 2011 | 30 May 2011 | ||||
| Total | Total | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 24% | 22% | 10% | 40% | 7% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 18% | 25% | 35% | 19% | 33% |
| Joe Hockey | 15% | 16% | 17% | 13% | 22% | 18% |
| Julie Bishop | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Andrew Robb | na | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| Someone else | na | 14% | 13% | 17% | 7% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 33% | 22% | 19% | 20% | 8% | 22% |
25% (+7%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 22% (-3%) prefer Tony Abbott and 17% (+1%) Joe Hockey.
Among Liberal/National voters, 40% prefer Tony Abbott, 22% Joe Hockey and 19% Malcolm Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 25% of men and 24% of women, Tony Abbott by 24% of men and 19% of women.
Andrew Robb, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Joe Hockey, Julie Bishop, Liberal Party, Liberal party Leadership, malcolm turnbull, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?
| 27 Sep 10 | 28 February 2011 | ||||
| Total | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 24% | 9% | 45% | 1% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 18% | 24% | 16% | 29% |
| Joe Hockey | 15% | 16% | 18% | 17% | 17% |
| Julie Bishop | 5% | 4% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| Andrew Robb | na | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Someone else | na | 14% | 18% | 8% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 33% | 22% | 23% | 10% | 20% |
24% of respondents believed that Tony Abbott is the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 16% Joe Hockey.
Tony Abbott is preferred by 45% of Liberal/National voters while Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by Labor (24%) and Greens voters (29%).
Tony Abbott is more preferred by men (30%) – women are split between Tony Abbott (19%) and Joe Hockey (19%). 23% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull compared to 14% of women.
These figures are little changed since the question was last asked in September 2010.
2011, 2011 outlook, Bob Brown, EMC, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, malcolm turnbull, politicians, tony abbott
Q. Do you think 2011 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good | Total poor | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 5% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 10% | 12% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 5% | 24% | 32% | 20% | 7% | 13% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 3% | 18% | 35% | 21% | 9% | 14% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 17% | 4% | 18% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 4% | 16% | 31% | 18% | 12% | 19% |
There were no strong expectations one way or the other that 2011 would be good or bad for politicians.
Overall, there were negative expectations for Julia Gillard (-8% net), Kevin Rudd (-9%) and Bob Brown (-10%) while respondents were divided over Tony Abbott (+2%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-1%).
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2011 to be worse than 2010 for Julia Gillard (net +24% in 2010 compared to
-8% in 2011) and Bob Brown (+17% in 2010/-10% in 2011).