2012 Outlook – Politicians
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 28% | 36% | 19% | 56% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 27% | 9% |
| Tony Abbott | 29% | 27% | 24% | 38% | 6% | 18% | 29% | 24% | 14% | 10% |
| Kevin Rudd | 21% | 30% | 30% | 25% | 5% | 25% | 35% | 17% | 8% | 10% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 20% | 21% | 22% | 22% | 3% | 19% | 42% | 17% | 5% | 14% |
| Bob Brown | 20% | 30% | 16% | 39% | 2% | 14% | 31% | 20% | 19% | 14% |
Overall, there were negative expectations for the three party leaders – Julia Gillard (-37% net), Tony Abbott (-14%) and Bob Brown (-23%) while respondents were more evenly divided over Kevin Rudd (+5%) and Malcolm Turnbull (-).
45% of Labor voters expect Julia Gillard to have a good year and 47% of Liberal/National voters expect Tony Abbott to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all party leaders – Julia Gillard has dropped form net -8% to net -37%, Tony Abbott from +2% to -14% and Bob Brown from -10% to -23%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions, respondents expect 2012 to be similar 2011 for Julia Gillard (net -37% next year compared to -36% this year) and Tony Abbott (-14% next year, -17% this year). However, Bob Brown is expected to have a worse year in 2012 (net -23%) than this year (+5%).
Leaders in 12 Months
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
Best Leader for GFC
Q. If there was another global financial crisis or a recession, which of the following would be best to lead Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Kevin Rudd | 24% | 34% | 13% | 37% |
| Tony Abbott | 20% | 4% | 44% | – |
| Julia Gillard | 13% | 42% | 1% | 18% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 13% | 7% | 17% | 17% |
| Joe Hockey | 7% | 1% | 11% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 12% | 15% | 25% |
24% think Kevin Rudd would be best to lead Australia if there was another GFC and 20% favour Tony Abbott.
Among Labor voters Julia Gillard is preferred over Kevin Rudd 42% to 34%. Support for the current party leaders among their own voters is very similar – 42% of Labor voters prefer Julia Gillard and 44% of Liberal/National voters prefer Tony Abbott.
Preferred Leader of the Labor Party
Q. If you were able to choose any politician to be leader of the Labor Party, which of the following would you prefer? (This question was commissioned by Network Ten).
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| Kevin Rudd | 37% | 43% | 36% | 35% | 40% | 33% | 40% | 39% | 30% |
| Julia Gillard | 12% | 31% | 2% | 24% | 10% | 13% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 11% | 6% | 17% | 7% | 12% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 15% |
| Stephen Smith | 7% | 6% | 9% | 2% | 7% | 6% | 3% | 6% | 12% |
| Bob Brown | 3% | 2% | 2% | 11% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 4% |
| Greg Combet | 2% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Bill Shorten | 1% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 28% | 9% | 32% | 18% | 22% | 33% | 31% | 28% | 22% |
37% of respondents prefer Kevin Rudd as leader of the Labor Party, 12% prefer Julia Gillard and 11% Malcolm Turnbull.
Among Labor voters, 43% prefer Kevin Rudd and 31% Julia Gillard.
Kevin Rudd is more preferred by younger respondents while those aged 55+ were more likely than the average to prefer Malcolm Turnbull (15%) and Stephen Smith (12%).
Is Australia a Better/Worse Place?
Q. Do you think Australia has become a better or worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM? (This question has been commissioned by Network Ten)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Age
18-34 |
Aged
35-54 |
Aged 55+ | |
| A better place | 13% | 32% | 4% | 22% | 16% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 11% |
| A worse place | 51% | 17% | 82% | 27% | 57% | 46% | 42% | 53% | 61% |
| A much better place | 3% | 9% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| A better place | 10% | 23% | 3% | 20% | 11% | 9% | 14% | 8% | 8% |
| A worse place | 32% | 14% | 47% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 33% | 32% |
| A much worse place | 19% | 3% | 35% | 3% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 20% | 29% |
| No change | 29% | 44% | 12% | 46% | 24% | 34% | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 6% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 12% | 6% | 3% |
Half the people surveyed (51%) think Australia has become a worse place in the year since Julia Gillard became PM. 13% think it has become a better place and 29% say there has been no change.
82% of Liberal/National voters think it has become a worse place while 46% of Greens voters and 44% of Labor voters think there has been no change.
The most negative groups were men (57% worse) and those aged 55+ (61% worse).
Important election issues
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election?
| One | Two | Three | Total | 24 Jan 11 | 11 Oct 10 | 25 Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 34% | 18% | 9% | 61% | 65% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 6% | 10% | 10% | 26% | 26% | 32% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 15% | 15% | 19% | 49% | 49% | 48% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 4% | 6% | 5% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 2% | 3% | 3% | 8% | 10% | 11% | * |
| Political leadership | 6% | 6% | 5% | 17% | 16% | 16% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 6% | 4% | 5% | 15% | 10% | 11% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 3% | 5% | 5% | 13% | 21% | 17% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 9% | 11% | 12% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 4% | 6% | 6% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 3% | 6% | 8% | 17% | 18% | 16% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 2% | 2% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 6% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | 5% | 5% | * |
| Managing population growth | 2% | 4% | 6% | 12% | 11% | 10% | * |
*Not asked
61% of people surveyed rated management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 49% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and 32% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Since January, there has been an increase in the importance of addressing climate change (from 10% to 15%) and a decrease in the importance of controlling interest rates (from 21% to 13%).
Party trusted to handle important election issues
Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| Management of the economy | 29% | 47% | 3% | 22% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 38% | 35% | 5% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 33% | 35% | 6% | 25% |
| Protecting the environment | 18% | 21% | 39% | 23% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 40% | 31% | 4% | 24% |
| Political leadership | 26% | 38% | 5% | 31% |
| Addressing climate change | 21% | 24% | 29% | 26% |
| Controlling interest rates | 26% | 44% | 3% | 28% |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 35% | 35% | 4% | 26% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 21% | 28% | 22% | 29% |
| Housing affordability | 26% | 34% | 4% | 35% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 29% | 37% | 4% | 30% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 25% | 40% | 3% | 32% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 19% | 39% | 11% | 31% |
| Managing population growth | 21% | 36% | 7% | 36% |
Labor is the most trusted party on only one issue – a fair industrial relations system. There is little difference between Labor and the Liberals for ensuring a quality education for all children, ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
This represents a weakening in Labor’s position over the last few months. In January Labor was trusted most to handle ensuring a quality education for all children and in October Labor also had a significant lead on protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Balance of Power
Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?
| 7 Mar 11 | Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 27% | 28% | 40% | 11% | 77% |
| Total bad | 41% | 39% | 19% | 68% | 6% |
| Very good | 7% | 9% | 11% | 3% | 40% |
| Good | 20% | 19% | 29% | 8% | 37% |
| Neither good nor bad | 33% | 33% | 41% | 21% | 17% |
| Bad | 22% | 21% | 13% | 33% | 5% |
| Very bad | 19% | 18% | 6% | 35% | 1% |
28% of respondents think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 39% bad. This is very similar to the results obtained for this question in March. The only substantial change is that Labor voters are now more positive – in March they responded 33% good/25% bad.
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Two Party Preferred:
In this week's report:
- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Top Federal Government priorities for 2021
- Uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine
- Perceptions of change in the standard of living for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples
- Changing views towards Australia Day
- Support towards a separate national day
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