Adrian Dodd, Canberra Report, Doddcast
“He must be sacked”.
“We must send a group of former factions to see him and tell him that if he doesn’t change the game plan – then he has to go.”
“This team is meant to embody the spirit of our nation and the performance we’ve put in is not only unpopular but it’s a disgrace to our whole nation,” he said.
“You can’t blame the players, they didn’t have a plan that they believed in or even understood what it was.
“PM doesn’t understand us, he doesn’t understand our fighting spirit. Comments »
Gillard, hashtags, kevin rudd, Social Media, spill, stuart gillies
7pm hungry.
I, like many other ‘Gen Y-can’t-I-do-everything-on-my-iPhone?’, first heard about the political events of last week while browsing my iphone for twitter, news feeds and facebook status updates, in front of the slower to react television on Wednesday night.
And feed we did.
As soon as the door shut on the then Prime Minister’s office, social networks were abuzz with the thought of a coup, thousands of tweeps all across Australia were glued to their 140 character evening dinner, with each and all sharing their pointed opinion on the ensuing #spill.
24hr news was being fed from all of this online action, with sky news reporters constantly taking advice and proclaiming news from their iphone instant news features, SMS and Twitter.
Pass the buttered corn. Comments »
andrew bunn, Campaigning, Essential Report, Polling
First Published on Crikey Thursday 24th June
Essential Reports polls taken over the last 2 years show how Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have declined since he almost unprecedented figures he achieved following his election through to early last year. Up to March last year approval hovered around the high 60% level into the low 70%. Is net approval (i.e. approve minus disapprove) was around the mid 40% level.
Throughout 2009 and early 2010 his approval went into steady decline but still remained in positive territory. At the end of March he recorded 53% approval and 36% disapproval. However, the most dramatic shift occurred in April and May when his approval first entered negative territory with 41% approve and 47% disapprove. The decline appeared to be accelerating.
Some of the reasons for this sudden decline can be found in how the personal perceptions of Kevin Rudd changed from 2009 to May this year. His attribute ratings showed significant falls in the percentage of people who considered him to be a capable leader (72% to 55%), good in a crisis (60%-44%) and trustworthy (51%-41%). Meanwhile his ratings for “out of touch with ordinary people” increased from 41% to 55%. It indicates a significant loss of confidence in his performance as Prime Minister.
Last week’s Essential Report showed only weak support for Kevin Rudd to lead the Labor Party to the next election – 40% thought the Labor Party would have better chance of winning the election if they changed leader and 37% thought Kevin Rudd was the best person to lead the labor Party. Even among Labor voters only 66% supported Kevin Rudd as leader and 23% though they should change. Comments »
afghanistan, andrew bunn, emerson, Essential Report
When it comes to research, online polling has an image problem. Federal Labor minister Craig Emerson was at it again this morning, saying the Essential Report was not a representative sample.
Part of the problem with online polling, is that it is often confused with the self-selecting web-based surveys that many news sites run – these, of course, are not scientific.
But evidence is emerging that professionally sourced and managed online panels are every bit as representative and accurate as the traditional method of telephone polling.
It has been estimated that more than 50% of all market and social research in Australia is conducted on line – it is relied on by major companies (and Governments!!) to make key decisions about their products, services, marketing. If it wasn’t reliable and valid they would be putting their businesses at considerable risk. Comments »
EMC, Essential Report, peter lewis, Polling, The Punch
First published in The Punch 21st June 2010
This is the week when another round of disastrous opinion polls was meant to spark a mass uprising within the Labor Caucus, as members convinced they were facing one-term oblivion hitched their wagon to Julia Gillard.
Everything was in place, a bunch of unsourced comment pieces predicting a move on the PM, an early Newspoll published in Monday’s Australian. And then? Well apart from a slight narrowing in preferred PM, no real movement in the polls.
Entering the spirit of leadership speculation, Essential Research asked our own series of leadership questions. What emerges is a completely different story – the failure of Tony Abbott to convince voters he is the man to lead the Coalition to the election. Now before you all start flaming me (again) for being a Left-ist agent of the evil ALP, let’s have a look at the questions we asked. Comments »
2PP, Election, Polling, Voting intention
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,842 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 34% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 37% |
| National | 3% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 37% | 41% | 40% | 41% | 40% |
| Labor | 47% | 40% | 37% | 35% | 38% |
| Greens | 8% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 11% |
| Family First | 2% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 3% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 8% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 43% | 48% | 48% | 49% | 48% |
| Labor | 57% | 52% | 52% | 51% | 52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
Abbott, Election, leadership, Liberal
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott is the best person to lead the Liberal Party to the next election or would the Liberal Party have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | |
| Tony Abbott is the best person to lead the Liberal Party to the next election | 29% | 14% | 62% |
| The Liberal Party would have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders | 47% | 65% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 24% | 21% | 13% |
47% of respondents thought the Liberal Party would have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leader – 29% thought Tony Abbott was the best person to be leader.
Liberal/National voters supported Tony Abbott as leader by 62% to 25%. 79% of Greens voters and 49% of other/independent voters thought the Liberal Party should change their leader. Men (34%) and those aged 65+ (34%) were the strongest supporters of Tony Abbott remaining as leader. Comments »
Abbott, Labor, leader, Liberal, rudd
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | 22 Mar 10 | ||
| Kevin Rudd | 47% | 90% | 9% | 50% | |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 3% | 80% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 23% | 7% | 11% | 19% |
47% believe that Kevin Rudd would make the best Prime Minister and 30% preferred Tony Abbott. This is little changed since the last time this question was asked when Kevin Rudd was preferred 50% to 30%.
Men preferred Kevin Rudd by 45% to 38%, whereas women were much less likely to prefer Tony Abbott (Rudd 49%, Abbott 23%). Greens voters preferred Kevin Rudd 64% to 9%. Comments »