First Published on Crikey Thursday 24th June
Essential Reports polls taken over the last 2 years show how Kevin Rudd’s approval ratings have declined since he almost unprecedented figures he achieved following his election through to early last year. Up to March last year approval hovered around the high 60% level into the low 70%. Is net approval (i.e. approve minus disapprove) was around the mid 40% level.
Throughout 2009 and early 2010 his approval went into steady decline but still remained in positive territory. At the end of March he recorded 53% approval and 36% disapproval. However, the most dramatic shift occurred in April and May when his approval first entered negative territory with 41% approve and 47% disapprove. The decline appeared to be accelerating.
Some of the reasons for this sudden decline can be found in how the personal perceptions of Kevin Rudd changed from 2009 to May this year. His attribute ratings showed significant falls in the percentage of people who considered him to be a capable leader (72% to 55%), good in a crisis (60%-44%) and trustworthy (51%-41%). Meanwhile his ratings for “out of touch with ordinary people” increased from 41% to 55%. It indicates a significant loss of confidence in his performance as Prime Minister.
Last week’s Essential Report showed only weak support for Kevin Rudd to lead the Labor Party to the next election – 40% thought the Labor Party would have better chance of winning the election if they changed leader and 37% thought Kevin Rudd was the best person to lead the labor Party. Even among Labor voters only 66% supported Kevin Rudd as leader and 23% though they should change.
This poll also showed that Julia Gillard was a more than acceptable replacement – she was preferred over Tony Abbott by 50% to 32% and appeared to have stronger support than Kevin Rudd among women and non-Labor voters. This suggests that Julia Gillard has more potential for attracting the soft and swinging voters than Kevin Rudd. She had also significantly improved her position when tested head-to-head with Kevin Rudd – 36% preferred Kevin Rudd and 33% Julia Gillard.
The combination of the continuing and rapid decline in support for Kevin Rudd and the perception that in Julia Gillard, the Labor Party had a ready-made alternative with growing support appears to have provided the necessary ingredients for a change in leadership.
Approval of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd
Q. Do you strongly approve, approve, disapprove or strongly disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Prime Minister?
| 12 Jan 09 | 9 Feb 09 | 30 Mar 09 | 18 May 09 | 29 Jun 09 | 10 Aug 09 | 28 Sept 09 | 9 Nov 09 | 30 Nov 09 | 14 Dec 09 | |
| Strongly approve | 14% | 17% | 21% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 15% | 14% | 9% | 10% |
| Approve | 52% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 48% | 47% | 51% | 47% | 47% | 47% |
| Disapprove | 16% | 15% | 14% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 17% | 19% | 20% | 20% |
| Strongly disapprove | 6% | 8% | 7% | 11% | 9% | 10% | 6% | 13% | 15% | 12% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 11% | 8% | 10% | 10% |
| Total approve | 66% | 67% | 71% | 62% | 62% | 60% | 66% | 61% | 56% | 57% |
| Total disapprove | 22% | 23% | 21% | 29% | 29% | 27% | 23% | 32% | 35% | 32% |
| Net | 44 | 44 | 50 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 43 | 29 | 21 | 25 |
| 18 Jan 10 | 22 Feb 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 3 May 10 | 31 May 10 | |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 11% | 12% | 8% | 7% |
| Approve | 44% | 41% | 41% | 38% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 19% | 20% | 22% | 25% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 14% | 17% | 14% | 17% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 11% | 12% | 12% | 12% |
| Total approve | 55% | 52% | 53% | 46% | 41% |
| Total disapprove | 33% | 37% | 36% | 42% | 47% |
| Net | 22 | 15 | 17 | 4 | -6 |
Attributes to describe the Prime Minister
Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Prime Minister, Kevin Rudd?
| 29 June 09 | 7 Dec 09 | 10 May 10 | Change | |
| Intelligent | 84% | 82% | 73% | -9% |
| Hard-working | 83% | 77% | 76% | -1% |
| A capable leader | 72% | 69% | 55% | -14% |
| Demanding | 67% | 60% | 69% | +9% |
| Arrogant | 46% | 49% | 57% | +8% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people | 41% | 45% | 55% | +10% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia | 67% | 59% | 53% | -6% |
| Visionary | 49% | 48% | 37% | -11% |
| Superficial | 40% | 41% | 52% | +11% |
| Good in a crisis | 60% | 58% | 44% | -14% |
| Narrow-minded | 32% | 36% | 43% | +7% |
| Down to earth | 56% | 55% | 47% | -8% |
| Too inflexible | 32% | 38% | 45% | +7% |
| Complacent | 28% | 38% | 38% | – |
| More honest than most politicians | 47% | 49% | 39% | -10% |
| Trustworthy | * | 51% | 41% | -10% |
*Not asked in June 2009
Changing Leaders – Kevin Rudd
Q. Do you think Kevin Rudd is the best person to lead the Labor Party to the next election or would the Labor Party have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | |
| Kevin Rudd is the best person to lead the Labor Party to the next election | 37% | 66% | 18% |
| The Labor Party would have a better chance of winning the next election if they changed leaders | 40% | 23% | 58% |
| Don’t know | 24% | 11% | 23% |
Best Leader – Rudd/Abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | 22 Mar 10 | ||
| Kevin Rudd | 47% | 90% | 9% | 50% | |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 3% | 80% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 23% | 7% | 11% | 19% |
Best Leader – Rudd/Gillard
Q7. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | 15 Feb 10 | ||
| Kevin Rudd | 36% | 56% | 26% | 45% | |
| Julia Gillard | 33% | 30% | 36% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 31% | 14% | 38% | 29% |
Best Leader – Gillard/Abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Tony Abbott and Julia Gillard?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | |
| Tony Abbott | 32% | 6% | 76% |
| Julia Gillard | 50% | 85% | 16% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 9% | 8% |
Andrew Bunn, Research Director, EMC