2PP, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,921 respondents
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 45% | 44% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6% | 47% | 48% | 47% | 48% |
| Labor | 38.0% | 35% | 34% | 34% | 34% |
| Greens | 11.8% | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6% | 8% | 8% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 54% | 54% | 55% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 46% | 46% | 45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
ALP, Julia Gillard, Labor Government, Labor leader, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has declined a little since last month. 34% (down 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -20 over the last 4 weeks.
73% of Labor voters approve (down 8%) and 19% disapprove (up 3%).
By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 32% approve/53% disapprove.
Approval rating, Liberals, LNP, Opposition leader, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen again over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -21 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.
65% (down 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.
By gender – men 36% approve/52% disapprove, women 29% approve/55% disapprove.
Better Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 14 Mar | 14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 44% | 41% | 36% | 38% | 41% | 39% | 81% | 5% | 74% |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 33% | 36% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 35% | 5% | 72% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 23% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 23% | 23% |
39% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – no significant change from last month’s result.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/38% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/32%.
Australian economy, banks, economy, environment, Farming and agriculture, industries, Large companies and corporations, media, mining industry, Past Year, Polling, polls, small business
Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?
| Total good
(Dec 10 |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The banks | 69% | 13% | 71% | 8% | 35% | 36% | 16% | 6% | 2% | 4% |
| The mining industry | 57% | 14% | 68% | 11% | 34% | 34% | 15% | 8% | 3% | 6% |
| Large companies and corporations | 44% | 15% | 40% | 22% | 8% | 32% | 32% | 18% | 4% | 6% |
| The Australian economy | 41% | 20% | 33% | 31% | 4% | 29% | 32% | 24% | 7% | 3% |
| The media | 30% | 14% | 25% | 27% | 6% | 19% | 37% | 19% | 8% | 10% |
| Farming and agriculture | 14% | 50% | 23% | 40% | 2% | 21% | 30% | 28% | 12% | 7% |
| The environment | 14% | 37% | 20% | 33% | 3% | 17% | 41% | 24% | 9% | 6% |
| Small business | 14% | 45% | 10% | 61% | 1% | 9% | 24% | 42% | 19% | 6% |
A majority of respondents think it has been a good year for the banks (71%) and the mining industry (68%). They are also more likely to think it has been a good year for large companies and corporations (40% good/22% bad) and the economy (33%/31%). However, they are more likely to think the year has been bad for small business (61%), farming and agriculture (40%) and the environment (33%).
In terms of the economy, Labor voters (50% good/18% bad) and Greens voters (47%/15%) were more likely to think it has been a good year – while 45% of Liberal/National voters considered it poor and 23% good.
Compared to last years’ results, respondents considered 2011 a better year than 2010 for the mining industry (up 11% to 68% good), farming and agriculture (up 9% to 23%) and the environment (up 6% to 20%). Perceptions of the economy dropped from a net +21% to +2%.
ALP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, LNP, Past Year, political parties, Polling, polls
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Greens | 42% | 21% | 33% | 29% | 7% | 26% | 28% | 15% | 14% | 11% |
| The Liberal Party | 33% | 27% | 27% | 30% | 4% | 23% | 34% | 22% | 8% | 9% |
| The Labor Party | 21% | 47% | 16% | 53% | 2% | 14% | 22% | 33% | 21% | 8% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| The Greens | 33% | 29% | 41% | 16% | 23% | 45% | 70% | 3% |
| The Liberal Party | 27% | 30% | 13% | 45% | 45% | 16% | 17% | 45% |
| The Labor Party | 16% | 53% | 35% | 32% | 7% | 73% | 11% | 48% |
Respondents were more likely to think it has been a good year for the Greens (33%) than the Liberal Party (27%) or the Labor Party (16%).
Among their own voters 70% think it has been a good year for the Greens, 45% the Liberal Party and 35% the Labor Party.
Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +21% to +4%, Liberals from net +6% to -3% and Labor from net -26% to -37%.
Bob Brown, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, malcolm turnbull, Past Year, politicians, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Julia Gillard | 49% | 25% | 21% | 57% | 3% | 18% | 16% | 35% | 22% | 6% |
| Bob Brown | 38% | 21% | 32% | 27% | 8% | 24% | 26% | 14% | 13% | 16% |
| Tony Abbott | 30% | 33% | 21% | 38% | 2% | 19% | 32% | 25% | 13% | 8% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 10% | 43% | 17% | 23% | 2% | 15% | 45% | 16% | 7% | 17% |
| Kevin Rudd | 10% | 70% | 31% | 30% | 5% | 26% | 31% | 22% | 8% | 7% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| Julia Gillard | 21% | 57% | 41% | 36% | 10% | 77% | 29% | 43% |
| Bob Brown | 32% | 27% | 37% | 19% | 25% | 40% | 66% | 4% |
| Tony Abbott | 21% | 38% | 9% | 57% | 39% | 18% | 7% | 64% |
| Malcolm Turnbull | 17% | 23% | 18% | 21% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 22% |
| Kevin Rudd | 31% | 30% | 37% | 24% | 31% | 38% | 29% | 25% |
Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.
Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.
2011, family, Past Year, Personal financial situation, Polling, polls, workplace
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| Your personal financial situation | 28% | 28% | 30% | 32% | 5% | 25% | 37% | 22% | 10% | 1% |
| Your workplace * | 43% | 21% | 43% | 23% | 8% | 35% | 33% | 18% | 5% | 2% |
| You and your family overall | 43% | 19% | 44% | 20% | 8% | 36% | 34% | 15% | 5% | 1% |
* based on working people
Respondents were evenly divided over whether it has been a good or bad year financially. Those most likely to say it was a good year were full-time workers (38% good/28% bad), aged under 35 (37%/28%) and incomes over $1,600pw (41%/25%).
Respondents were more positive about their workplace (43%/23%) and overall for themselves and their family (44%/20%). Younger respondents were a little more positive about themselves and their family– those aged under 35 split 50% good/15% bad.
On these measures 2011 was considered very similar to 2010.