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  • Dec, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    Sample size = 1,921 respondents

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 44% 45% 44% 44%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 47% 48% 47% 48%
    Labor 38.0% 35% 34% 34% 34%
    Greens 11.8% 10% 11% 10% 10%
    Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 8% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 54% 54% 55%
    Labor 50.1% 46% 46% 46% 45%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Dec, 2011

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

    19 Jul 2010 20 Dec 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec
    Total approve 52% 43% 41% 34% 28% 34% 37% 34%
    Total disapprove 30% 40% 46% 54% 64% 59% 55% 54%
    Strongly approve 11% 10% 7% 6% 5% 7% 8% 6%
    Approve 41% 33% 34% 28% 23% 27% 29% 28%
    Disapprove 17% 24% 22% 29% 28% 27% 25% 25%
    Strongly disapprove 13% 16% 24% 25% 36% 32% 30% 29%
    Don’t know 18% 17% 13% 13% 8% 7% 9% 11%

    Julia Gillard’s approval rating has declined a little since last month. 34% (down 3%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -18 to -20 over the last 4 weeks.

    73% of Labor voters approve (down 8%) and 19% disapprove (up 3%).

    By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 32% approve/53% disapprove.

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  • Dec, 2011

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

    18 Jan

    2010

    5 Jul

    2010

    20 Dec 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec
    Total approve 37% 37% 39% 38% 38% 39% 40% 36% 32%
    Total disapprove 37% 47% 39% 47% 48% 50% 51% 52% 53%
    Strongly approve 5% 8% 9% 7% 6% 8% 8% 6% 6%
    Approve 32% 29% 30% 31% 32% 31% 32% 30% 26%
    Disapprove 20% 23% 21% 24% 25% 23% 23% 26% 25%
    Strongly disapprove 17% 24% 18% 23% 23% 27% 28% 26% 28%
    Don’t know 26% 16% 22% 16% 15% 11% 9% 12% 14%

    Tony Abbott’s approval rating has fallen again over the last month. 32% (down 4%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -21 over the last 4 weeks. This is the lowest rating recorded for Tony Abbott since he became opposition leader.

    65% (down 8%) of Coalition voters approve and 22% (up 3%) disapprove.

    By gender – men 36% approve/52% disapprove, women 29% approve/55% disapprove.

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  • Dec, 2011

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

    5 Jul 2010 14 Mar 14 June 12 Sept 17 Oct 14 Nov 12 Dec Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Julia Gillard 53% 44% 41% 36% 38% 41% 39% 81% 5% 74%
    Tony Abbott 26% 33% 36% 40% 39% 36% 35% 5% 72% 3%
    Don’t know 21% 23% 24% 24% 23% 24% 26% 14% 23% 23%

    39% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – no significant change from last month’s result.

    Men prefer Julia Gillard 40%/38% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/32%.

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  • Dec, 2011

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    The Past Year – The Economy and Industries

    Q. Thinking about the last 12 months, has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

    Total good

    (Dec 10

    Total bad

    (Dec 10)

    Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
    The banks 69% 13% 71% 8% 35% 36% 16% 6% 2% 4%
    The mining industry 57% 14% 68% 11% 34% 34% 15% 8% 3% 6%
    Large companies and corporations 44% 15% 40% 22% 8% 32% 32% 18% 4% 6%
    The Australian economy 41% 20% 33% 31% 4% 29% 32% 24% 7% 3%
    The media 30% 14% 25% 27% 6% 19% 37% 19% 8% 10%
    Farming and agriculture 14% 50% 23% 40% 2% 21% 30% 28% 12% 7%
    The environment 14% 37% 20% 33% 3% 17% 41% 24% 9% 6%
    Small business 14% 45% 10% 61% 1% 9% 24% 42% 19% 6%

    A majority of respondents think it has been a good year for the banks (71%) and the mining industry (68%). They are also more likely to think it has been a good year for large companies and corporations (40% good/22% bad) and the economy (33%/31%). However, they are more likely to think the year has been bad for small business (61%), farming and agriculture (40%) and the environment (33%).

    In terms of the economy, Labor voters (50% good/18% bad) and Greens voters (47%/15%) were more likely to think it has been a good year – while 45% of Liberal/National voters considered it poor and 23% good.

    Compared to last years’ results, respondents considered 2011 a better year than 2010 for the mining industry (up 11% to 68% good), farming and agriculture (up 9% to 23%) and the environment (up 6% to 20%). Perceptions of the economy dropped from a net +21% to +2%.

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  • Dec, 2011

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    The Past Year – Political Parties

    Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?

    Total good

    (Dec 10)

    Total bad

    (Dec 10)

    Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
    The Greens 42% 21% 33% 29% 7% 26% 28% 15% 14% 11%
    The Liberal Party 33% 27% 27% 30% 4% 23% 34% 22% 8% 9%
    The Labor Party 21% 47% 16% 53% 2% 14% 22% 33% 21% 8%

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad
    The Greens 33% 29% 41% 16% 23% 45% 70% 3%
    The Liberal Party 27% 30% 13% 45% 45% 16% 17% 45%
    The Labor Party 16% 53% 35% 32% 7% 73% 11% 48%

    Respondents were more likely to think it has been a good year for the Greens (33%) than the Liberal Party (27%) or the Labor Party (16%).

    Among their own voters 70% think it has been a good year for the Greens, 45% the Liberal Party and 35% the Labor Party.

    Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +21% to +4%, Liberals from net +6% to -3% and Labor from net -26% to -37%.

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  • Dec, 2011

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    The Past Year – Politicians

    Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following politicians?

    Total good

    (Dec 10)

    Total bad

    (Dec 10)

    Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
    Julia Gillard 49% 25% 21% 57% 3% 18% 16% 35% 22% 6%
    Bob Brown 38% 21% 32% 27% 8% 24% 26% 14% 13% 16%
    Tony Abbott 30% 33% 21% 38% 2% 19% 32% 25% 13% 8%
    Malcolm Turnbull 10% 43% 17% 23% 2% 15% 45% 16% 7% 17%
    Kevin Rudd 10% 70% 31% 30% 5% 26% 31% 22% 8% 7%

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad Total good Total bad
    Julia Gillard 21% 57% 41% 36% 10% 77% 29% 43%
    Bob Brown 32% 27% 37% 19% 25% 40% 66% 4%
    Tony Abbott 21% 38% 9% 57% 39% 18% 7% 64%
    Malcolm Turnbull 17% 23% 18% 21% 18% 23% 23% 22%
    Kevin Rudd 31% 30% 37% 24% 31% 38% 29% 25%

    Overall, only Bob Brown (32%/27%) was thought to have had a good year. Respondents were divided on whether Kevin Rudd has had a good year (31%/30%). Only 21% thought Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott had a good year in 2011. 2011 was considered worse than 2010 for each of the party leaders. Malcolm Turnbull and Kevin Rudd were considered to have had a somewhat better year compared to 2010.

    Among their own voters thought, 66% (down 2%) thought Bob Brown had a good year, 41% (down 28%) thought Julia Gillard had a good year and 39% (down 5%) thought Tony Abbott has had a good year.

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  • Dec, 2011

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    The Past Year – Personal

    Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following?

    Total good

    (Dec 10)

    Total bad

    (Dec 10)

    Total good Total bad Very good Good Neither good nor bad Bad Very bad Don’t know
    Your personal financial situation 28% 28% 30% 32% 5% 25% 37% 22% 10% 1%
    Your workplace * 43% 21% 43% 23% 8% 35% 33% 18% 5% 2%
    You and your family overall 43% 19% 44% 20% 8% 36% 34% 15% 5% 1%

    * based on working people

    Respondents were evenly divided over whether it has been a good or bad year financially. Those most likely to say it was a good year were full-time workers (38% good/28% bad), aged under 35 (37%/28%) and incomes over $1,600pw (41%/25%).

    Respondents were more positive about their workplace (43%/23%) and overall for themselves and their family (44%/20%). Younger respondents were a little more positive about themselves and their family– those aged under 35 split 50% good/15% bad.

    On these measures 2011 was considered very similar to 2010.

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