Essential Report

Party Trust to Handle Benefits/pensions

Apr 11, 2011

Q. Which party would you trust more to handle welfare issues like unemployment benefits and disability pensions?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Labor Party 34% 75% 6% 53%
Liberal Party 31% 4% 66% 8%
No difference 25% 16% 21% 26%
Don’t know 10% 55 6% 13%

34% trust the Labor Party more to handle welfare issues and 31% trust the Liberal Party more. 25% think there is no difference.

The Liberal Party is trusted more by people earning $1,600+ pw (40% to 29%) while those on incomes under $1,000 pw favor the Labor Party 39% to 22%.

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Difference between Labor and Greens Policies

Apr 11, 2011

Q. How much difference do you think there is between the policies of the Labor Party and the Greens?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
They are completely different 8% 10% 10% 12%
Different on most issues 15% 15% 16% 26%
Different of some and similar on some 41% 54% 33% 47%
Similar on most issues 14% 7% 22% 8%
They are exactly the same 5% 2% 7% 1%
Don’t know 17% 13% 13% 5%

19% think the Labor and Greens policies are similar or exactly the same, 23% think they are mostly or completely different and 41% think they are different on some and the similar on some issues.

Labor voters are more likely to think they are different on some and similar on some (54%), Liberal/National voters more likely to think they are similar or the same (29%) and Greens voters more likely to think they are different (38%).

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Federal Budget

Apr 5, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Australian Government’s proposal to establish a regional processing centre for asylum seekers in East Timor?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Total support 37% 47% 33% 38% 42% 32% 40% 37% 35%
Total oppose 38% 27% 46% 38% 39% 36% 29% 39% 46%
Strongly support 11% 13% 9% 5% 12% 9% 8% 11% 13%
Support 26% 34% 24% 33% 30% 23% 32% 26% 22%
Oppose 18% 16% 20% 22% 18% 18% 17% 20% 18%
Strongly oppose 20% 11% 26% 16% 21% 18% 12% 19% 28%
Don’t know 25% 25% 21% 25% 19% 32% 31% 24% 20%

Opinions on the Australian Government’s proposal to establish a regional processing centre for asylum seekers in East Timor are evenly divided – 37% support the proposal and 38% oppose.

Strongest support comes from Labor voters (47%) and those aged 18-34 (40%). Strongest opposition comes form Liberal/National voters (46%) and those aged 55+ (46%).

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Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 4, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size =1,860

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 44% 44% 43% 43%
National 3% 3% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 47% 46% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 36% 36% 37% 36%
Greens 11.8 10% 10% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 8% 7% 8%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 53% 53% 52% 53%
Labor 50.1% 47% 47% 48% 47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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State of the Economy

Apr 4, 2011

Q. Compared to other developed countries (e.g. USA, UK, Japan, European nations) how would you rate the current state of the Australian economy?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 69% 82% 66% 75%
Total poor 7% 2% 9% 1%
Very good 24% 37% 15% 38%
Good 45% 45% 51% 37%
Average 21% 14% 24% 21%
Poor 4% 2% 5% 1%
Very poor 3% 4%
Don’t know 3% 2% 1% 2%

69% believe that, compared to other developed countries, the current state of the Australian economy is good and 7% think it is poor. 82% of Labor voters think it is good compared to 75% of Greens voters and 66% of Liberal/National voters.

Those on higher incomes are more likely to think it is good – 75% of those on $1,600+ per week compared to 66% of those under $600 per week.

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Federal Budget

Apr 4, 2011

Q. Thinking about the next Federal Budget, overall do you think the Government should increase, maintain or cut spending on services and programs?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Increase spending 15% 16% 13% 20%
Maintain spending 49% 58% 46% 54%
Cut spending 22% 14% 31% 15%
Don’t know 14% 12% 10% 11%

49% think the Government should maintain spending in the next Federal Budget, 22% think spending should be cut and 15% think it should be increased.

By voting intention, 74% of Labor voters and Greens voters think spending should be maintained or increased compared to 59% of Liberal/National voters. 31% of Liberal/National voters think spending should be cut.

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Federal Budget Surplus

Apr 4, 2011

Q. Do you think it is more important for the Government to return the budget to surplus by 2012/13 as planned – which may mean cutting services and raising taxes – OR should they delay the return to surplus and maintain services and invest in infrastructure?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Return to surplus by 2012/13 14% 16% 16% 9%
Delay return to surplus 69% 72% 70% 72%
Don’t know 17% 12% 13% 19%

69% support delaying the return to surplus if it means cutting services and raising taxes – while 14% think it is more important to return to surplus by 2012/13.

78% of those aged 45+ support delaying the return to surplus.

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The Economy

Apr 4, 2011

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think economic conditions in Australia will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

1 Dec 08 15 Jun 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10 29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10 4 April 11 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total better 21% 43% 66% 53% 54% 33% 40% 27% 38% 25% 23%
Total worse 61% 37% 15% 19% 19% 31% 30% 37% 26% 48% 33%
Get a lot better 2% 5% 8% 9% 9% 5% 6% 4% 7% 3% 3%
Get a little better 19% 38% 58% 44% 45% 28% 34% 23% 31% 22% 20%
Get a little worse 45% 28% 11% 14% 13% 23% 20% 27% 22% 33% 27%
Get a lot worse 16% 9% 4% 5% 6% 8% 10% 10% 4% 15% 6%
Stay much the same 13% 17% 15% 24% 22% 30% 24% 27% 32% 23% 35%
No opinion 5% 3% 4% 4% 6% 7% 6% 8% 4% 5% 8%

Optimism about Australia’s economic outlook has declined substantially in the last 6 months. 27% think economic conditions in Australia will get better over the next 12 months and 37% think they will get worse – a net decline of 20% since this question was last asked in October. This is the most negative result recorded since December 2008.

Younger people are more optimistic than older people – of those aged under 35, 34% think conditions will get better and 27% worse.

38% of Labor voters think conditions will get better and 26% worse while 25% of Coalition voters think conditions will get better and 48% worse.

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