Essential Report

Personal financial situation

Apr 4, 2011

Q. Over the next 12 months do you think your personal financial situation will get better, get worse or stay much the same?

29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10 4 April 11 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total better 40% 29% 33% 32% 37% 29% 40%
Total worse 23% 31% 29% 31% 28% 35% 21%
Get a lot better 8% 5% 6% 7% 7% 7% 7%
Get a little better 32% 24% 27% 25% 30% 22% 33%
Get a little worse 17% 21% 21% 22% 21% 24% 16%
Get a lot worse 6% 10% 8% 9% 7% 11% 5%
Stay much the same 33% 37% 32% 32% 32% 33% 34%
No opinion 4% 4% 5% 5% 3% 3% 6%

32% think their own personal financial situation will get better over the next 12 months and 31% worse – 32% think they will stay much the same.

This is a little less optimistic than the October result – a decrease from net +4% to +1%.

Among full-time workers, 40% think their situation will get better and 27% worse while those who are not working are more pessimistic – 25% better/32% worse/36% much the same.

For those aged 55+, 15% expect their financial situation to get better and 39% worse while for those aged under 35, 48% expect it to get better and 24% worse.

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Job security

Apr 4, 2011

Q. How concerned are you that you or some member of your immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so: very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not at all concerned?

16 Feb 09 27 Apr 09 8 Jun 09 5 Oct 09 18 Jan 10 29 Mar 10 28 Jun 10 18 Oct 10 4 April 11 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total concerned 62% 67% 52% 49% 45% 39% 43% 40% 43% 39% 46% 42%
Very concerned 22% 24% 13% 14% 12% 10% 9% 11% 11% 9% 12% 7%
Somewhat concerned 40% 43% 39% 35% 33% 29% 34% 29% 32% 30% 34% 35%
Not at all concerned 29% 23% 35% 40% 40% 45% 38% 42% 43% 43% 44% 53%
Don’t know 4% 5% 6% 6% 8% 7% 12% 10% 8% 9% 4% 2%
No employees in the immediate family 5% 5% 8% 5% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 9% 5% 3%

43% were concerned that they or some member of their immediate family will lose their job in the next year or so and 43% were not at all concerned – a net negative movement of 2% since the last survey in June.

Those on higher incomes (40% concerned/54% not concerned for incomes of $1,600+) were more optimistic than those on lower incomes (46% concerned/40% not concerned for incomes of $600-$1,000).

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Support for Carbon Tax if Compensated

Mar 29, 2011

Q. If the Government compensated households by cutting income tax and increasing welfare payments, would you be more likely or less likely to support the proposed carbon tax?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Age

18-34

Aged

35-54

Aged 55+
Total more likely 38% 58% 26% 49% 37% 40% 43% 38% 34%
Total less likely 16% 10% 23% 14% 20% 12% 16% 16% 15%
Much more likely 14% 26% 7% 20% 15% 14% 16% 15% 12%
Somewhat more likely 24% 32% 19% 29% 22% 25% 27% 23% 22%
Somewhat less likely 5% 6% 6% 4% 7% 3% 6% 6% 4%
Much less likely 11% 4% 17% 10% 13% 8% 10% 10% 11%
Makes no difference 35% 24% 46% 26% 35% 35% 26% 36% 46%
Don’t know 11% 8% 5% 11% 8% 13% 15% 10% 6%

38% of respondents agreed they would be more likely to support the proposed carbon tax if the Government compensated households by cutting income tax and increasing welfare payments, 16% said they would be less likely to support it and 35% said it would make no difference.

Those most likely to support the tax were Labor voters (58%), Greens voters (49%) and younger respondents (43% of people aged 18-34). 46% of Coalition voters and 46% of those aged 55+ said it would make no difference to their view.

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Carbon Pricing

Mar 29, 2011

Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

7 March 14 March Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total support 35% 38% 34% 63% 14% 56%
Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 23% 80% 24%
Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 22% 4% 29%
Support 26% 26% 22% 41% 10% 27%
Oppose 19% 17% 19% 12% 24% 13%
Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 11% 56% 11%
Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 14% 7% 19%

Support for the Government’s carbon pricing scheme has fallen over the last 2 weeks. 34% now support the scheme and 51% are opposed.

Opinion has polarized among voters for the major parties. Support among Labor voters has increased from 55% to 63% while opposition from Coalition voters has increased from 73% to 80%.  Support has fallen among Greens voters – 2 weeks ago they split 78% support/11% oppose compared to this week’s 56% support/24% oppose.

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Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 28, 2011

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

sample size =1,917

First preference/leaning to Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Liberal 42% 45% 44% 43%
National 3% 2% 3% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 43.6 45% 47% 46% 46%
Labor 38.0 37% 35% 36% 37%
Greens 11.8 11% 10% 10% 10%
Other/Independent 6.6 7% 8% 8% 7%
2PP Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 52% 54% 53% 52%
Labor 50.1% 48% 46% 47% 48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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Form of Compensation Preferred

Mar 28, 2011

Q. The Federal Government says that the funds raised from the carbon tax will be used to compensate those affected by price increases. Which of the following forms of compensation do you favour?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
A direct payment to households 39% 44% 37% 50%
An income tax cut 33% 36% 34% 26%
A cut to the GST rate 13% 11% 17% 8%
Cuts to corporate taxes 2% 1% 2% 1%
Don’t know 13% 8% 10% 14%

39% favour compensation as a direct payment to households and 33% favour income tax cuts. Greens voters (50%) and Labor voters (44%) are most likely to favour a direct payment while Coalition voters split 37% direct payment/34% tax cut.

Older people strongly favour a direct payment  – among those aged 55+, 51% favour direct payment and 21% a tax cut, while for those aged 18-44, 39% favour a tax cut and 33% favour a direct payment.

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Early Election over Carbon Tax

Mar 28, 2011

Q. Do you think the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Yes 40% 16% 67% 17%
No 44% 72% 20% 69%
Don’t know 17% 11% 13% 13%

40% think that the Government should call an early election over the carbon tax and 44% think they should not. 67% of Coalition voters favour an early election while 72% of Labor voters and 69% of Greens voters do not.

Men favour an early election 47%/41% while women oppose 46%/33%.

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Approval of Kevin Rudd as Foreign Minister

Mar 28, 2011

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total approve 61% 83% 47% 74%
Total disapprove 19% 5% 33% 9%
Strongly approve 17% 27% 9% 25%
Approve 44% 56% 38% 49%
Disapprove 11% 4% 18% 7%
Strongly disapprove 8% 1% 15% 2%
Don’t know 21% 12% 21% 18%

61% approve of the job Kevin Rudd is doing as Foreign Minister and 19% disapprove. 83% of Labor voters and 74% of Greens voters approve.

Coalition voters are also more likely to approve than disapprove (47% approve/33% disapprove).

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