carbon pollution, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, climate, climate change, Coalition, Coalition voters, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, government, IPCC, Labor, Labor voters, peter lewis, Resources Rent Tax, The Drum
First published on The Drum: 08/03/2011
The media works in eight-hour news cycles, politicians live and die by three-year cycles, while the planet’s climate is working on a significantly longer time frame.
The way these three cycles interplay over the next few months will determine not only the outcome of the next federal election but whether Australia will be a beneficiary or a victim of the shift in energy use that climate change will inevitably require*.
As this week’s Essential Report shows the Government has taken a short-term hammering after it’s decision to move on a carbon price. Not only has the Government failed to win popular support for its carbon pricing scheme, this has translated into a 4 per cent turnaround in the Two Party Preferred.
Of particular concern to Labor would be the high level of strong opposition, compared to strong support for the plan and the fact that barely half of Labor voters are backing the scheme.
2PP, Election, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,918
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 43% | 40% | 42% | 44% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 43% | 45% | 47% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 38% | 39% | 37% | 36% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 10% | 11% | 10% | 10% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 7% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 51% | 49% | 52% | 53% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 49% | 51% | 48% | 47% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
carbon pollution, Carbon Pricing, carbon pricing scheme, Carbon Tax, EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 54% | 18% | 75% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 25% | 72% | 13% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 16% | 2% | 34% |
| Support | 26% | 38% | 16% | 41% |
| Oppose | 19% | 13% | 24% | 10% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 12% | 48% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 21% | 9% | 11% |
35% support the Government’s recent announcement to introduce a carbon pricing scheme and 48% oppose. The scheme is strongly supported by Greens voters (75%) and has majority support from Labor voters (54%) but is strongly opposed by Coalition voters (72%).
Respondents aged under 35 were split 36% support/37% oppose while those aged 55+ were more strongly opposed (36% support/56% oppose).
carbon, carbon pollution, Carbon Tax, EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Julia Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Tony Abbott and the opposition claim this is a ‘backflip’ on a promise Prime Minister Gillard made before the 2010 election not to introduce a carbon tax in the next term of parliament. Which of the following statements is closest to your view:
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| The Prime Minister has broken an election promise and should wait until after the next election before introducing a carbon pollution tax | 59% | 33% | 86% | 26% |
| The Prime Minister is showing strong leadership on an issue of national importance | 27% | 51% | 7% | 67% |
| Don’t know | 13% | 16% | 7% | 7% |
59% agree are more likely to think that the Prime Minister has broken an election promise and should wait until after the next election before introducing a carbon pollution tax and 27% believe she is showing strong leadership on an issue of national importance.
Opinions are strongly related to voting intention although a substantial minority (33%) of Labor voters agree that the Prime Minister has broken an election promise and should wait.
climate change, Climate Change action, EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you think the Government needs to take action on climate change as soon as possible, should they wait a few years before taking action or don’t they need to take any action at all?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Need to take action as soon as possible | 47% | 60% | 33% | 85% |
| Can wait a few years before taking action | 24% | 19% | 33% | 8% |
| Don’t need to take any action | 19% | 9% | 29% | 3% |
| Don’t know | 11% | 12% | 5% | 4% |
Nearly half of respondents (47%) believe that the Government needs to take action on climate change as soon as possible, 24% think they can wait and 19% think they do not need to take any action.
52% of respondents aged under 35 think they need to take action as soon as possible compared to 44% of those aged 55+.
EMC, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, opposition, Opposition leader, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view about the performance of Tony Abbott as Opposition leader?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable | 41% | 11% | 79% | 7% |
| Tony Abbott is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government | 43% | 78% | 12% | 82% |
| Don’t know | 16% | 11% | 9% | 12% |
41% think that Tony Abbott is performing the role of Opposition leader well and is keeping the Government accountable and 43% think he is just opposing everything and is obstructing the work of the Government.
Views are strongly correlated with voting intention – 79% of Coalition voters think he is performing the role of Opposition leader well, while 78% of Labor voters and 82% of Greens voters think he is just opposing everything.
EMC, ER, Essential Report, Federal Government, Greens, Independents, Labor, Liberal, Minority Government, Parliament, Polling, polls, power in Parliament
Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 27% | 33% | 12% | 83% |
| Total bad | 41% | 25% | 66% | 2% |
| Very good | 7% | 8% | 1% | 34% |
| Good | 20% | 25% | 11% | 49% |
| Neither good nor bad | 33% | 41% | 22% | 15% |
| Bad | 22% | 18% | 29% | 2% |
| Very bad | 19% | 7% | 37% | – |
27% think that the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good for Australia and 41% think it has been bad.
Greens voters overwhelmingly think it has been good (83%) while two-thirds of Coalition voters think it has been bad. Labor voters are somewhat split – 33% good/25% bad/41% neither. Older respondents were more likely to think it was bad – those aged under 35 split 32% good/29% bad while those aged 55+ split 21% good/52% bad.
Australia, Australian society, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Greens, Islam, Labor, Liberal, multiculturalism, Muslim, Muslims, Polling, polls, Religion, religious concern, religious issues, voting
Q. In your view, should the Australian government exclude Muslims from our migrant intake?
(Question commissioned by Network Ten)
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Men | Women | Aged 18-34 | Aged 35-44 | Aged 55+ | |
| Yes | 25% | 21% | 33% | 8% | 26% | 25% | 19% | 26% | 31% |
| No | 55% | 62% | 49% | 83% | 55% | 54% | 56% | 57% | 49% |
| Don’t know/Refused | 20% | 17% | 18% | 8% | 19% | 21% | 25% | 17% | 20% |
25% of respondents believed that the Australian government should exclude Muslims from our migrant intake and 55% disagreed. Those most likely to think Muslims should be excluded from our migration intake were Liberal/National voters (33%) and people aged 55+ (31%).
Download the Network Ten Essential Question of the Week (1.1 MB pdf)