Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,918 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 23/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 7/5/12 |
Last week 14/5/12 |
This week 21/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
29% |
30% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
58% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
42% |
43% |
44 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
Trust to deal with GFC
Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?
|
15 Aug 11 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Labor Party |
31% |
25% |
68% |
2% |
42% |
| The Liberal Party |
40% |
42% |
5% |
83% |
5% |
| No difference |
20% |
23% |
19% |
11% |
39% |
| Don’t know |
9% |
10% |
8% |
4% |
14% |
If there was another GFC, 42% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 25% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a shift to the Liberal Party from net +9% to net +17%
The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were men (47%), aged 55+ (48%), full-time workers (50%) and income over $1,600 pw (50%).
Best Leader of the Labor Party
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?
|
30 May 2011 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
23% |
16% |
40% |
4% |
21% |
| Kevin Rudd |
32% |
31% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
| Wayne Swan |
2% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
| Greg Combet |
4% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
| Bill Shorten |
3% |
6% |
8% |
5% |
3% |
| Someone else |
19% |
23% |
6% |
33% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
17% |
6% |
19% |
19% |
33% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 16% prefer Julia Gillard. This represents declines of 1% for Kevin Rudd and 7% for Julia Gillard since this question was asked nearly 12 months ago. Those selecting “someone else” has increased from 19% to 23%.
Julia Gillard is preferred by 40% of Labor voters compared to 33% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 33% to 16% and women by 28% to 17%.
Party Best At…
Q. Which party – Labor or Liberal – do you think is best when it comes to:
|
Labor |
Liberal |
No difference |
Don’t know |
Difference |
|
| Representing the interests of Australian working families |
37% |
25% |
29% |
9% |
+12 |
| Representing the interests of you and people like you |
29% |
35% |
26% |
10% |
-6 |
| Standing up for the middle class in Australia |
26% |
33% |
30% |
11% |
-7 |
| Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests |
10% |
54% |
25% |
11% |
-44 |
| Being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests |
37% |
22% |
30% |
11% |
+15 |
| Handling the economy overall |
22% |
41% |
26% |
10% |
-19 |
| Handling the economy in a way that tries to take the interests of working families into consideration as much as it takes the interests of the large corporate and financial groups |
29% |
34% |
25% |
12% |
-5 |
| Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business |
22% |
40% |
25% |
13% |
-18 |
| Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class |
23% |
38% |
27% |
12% |
-15 |
| Handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most. |
26% |
36% |
27% |
11% |
-10 |
Labor was considered best at representing the interests of Australian working families (37%) and being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests (37%). The Liberals were considered best on all the other measures.
In particular, the Liberal Party was considered much better on representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests (54%), handling the economy overall (41%) and handling the economy in a way that best helps small business (40%).
Party Best at Handling Economy
Q. Which party do you think would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you?
|
|
4 Jul 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| The Labor Party |
26% |
29% |
76% |
1% |
39% |
| The Liberal Party |
43% |
41% |
2% |
89% |
7% |
| No difference |
23% |
20% |
14% |
7% |
45% |
| Don’t know |
8% |
10% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
41% (down 2% since July last year) think the Liberal Party would be best at handling the Australian economy in their interests and 29% (up 3%) nominated the Labor Party. 20% think there is no difference.
There were significant differences by income – those earning under $600pw split 38% Labor/30% Liberal while those earning over $1,600pw favoured the Liberal Party 49% to 23% Labor.
Leadership Challenge Good or Bad for Government
Q. Do you think the recent leadership challenge has been good or bad for the Labor Government?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
13% |
30% |
7% |
16% |
| Total bad |
62% |
39% |
80% |
50% |
| Very good |
4% |
10% |
2% |
4 |
| Good |
9% |
20% |
5% |
12% |
| Neither good nor bad |
18% |
26% |
12% |
28% |
| Bad |
24% |
25% |
22% |
28% |
| Very bad |
38% |
14% |
58% |
22% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
4% |
2% |
6% |
62% think that the recent leadership challenge was bad for the Labor Party and only 13% think it was good.
Labor voters were split – 39% think it was bad, 30% good and 26% neither good nor bad.
More or Less Likely to Vote Labor
Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total more likely |
13% |
33% |
5% |
18% |
| Total less likely |
47% |
21% |
64% |
38% |
| Much more likely |
6% |
17% |
1% |
5% |
| A little more likely |
7% |
16% |
4% |
13% |
| A little less likely |
10% |
11% |
7% |
16% |
| Much less likely |
37% |
10% |
57% |
22% |
| Makes no difference |
34% |
42% |
30% |
43% |
| Don’t know |
5% |
3% |
1% |
– |
47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.
Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.
Kevin Rudd’s Future
Q. What do you think Kevin Rudd should do now?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Stay in Parliament and challenge again |
29% |
30% |
28% |
29% |
| Stay in Parliament and not challenge again |
28% |
44% |
17% |
46% |
| Resign from Parliament |
30% |
17% |
44% |
20% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
8% |
10% |
5% |
Respondents were divided about what Kevin Rudd should do – 30% say he should resign from parliament, 29% think he should stay and challenge again and 28% think he should stay and not challenge again.
Among Labor voters, 44% think he should stay and not challenge, while 44% of Liberal/National voters think he should resign from Parliament. 46% of Greens voters think he should stay in Parliament and not challenge again.
COVID-19 RESEARCH
Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.
Download this week's ReportEssential Report
Two Party Preferred:
In this week's report:
- Performance of Scott Morrison
- Performance of Anthony Albanese
- Preferred Prime Minister
- Top Federal Government priorities for 2021
- Uptake of a Covid-19 vaccine
- Perceptions of change in the standard of living for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples
- Changing views towards Australia Day
- Support towards a separate national day
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