Federal politics – voting intention

May 21, 2012

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,918 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

23/4/12

2 weeks ago

7/5/12

Last week

14/5/12

This week

21/5/12

Liberal

45%

47%

47%

46%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

50%

50%

49%

Labor

38.0%

31%

29%

30%

33%

Greens

11.8%

11%

11%

11%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

58%

57%

56%

Labor

50.1%

44%

42%

43%

44

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.

Trust to deal with GFC

May 7, 2012

Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?

 

15 Aug 11

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Labor Party

31%

25%

68%

2%

42%

The Liberal Party

40%

42%

5%

83%

5%

No difference

20%

23%

19%

11%

39%

Don’t know

9%

10%

8%

4%

14%

If there was another GFC, 42% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 25% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a shift to the Liberal Party from net +9% to net +17%

The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were men (47%), aged 55+ (48%), full-time workers (50%) and income over $1,600 pw (50%).

Comments »

Best Leader of the Labor Party

Apr 23, 2012

Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?

 

30 May 2011

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Julia Gillard

23%

16%

40%

4%

21%

Kevin Rudd

32%

31%

33%

32%

32%

Wayne Swan

2%

4%

6%

4%

5%

Greg Combet

4%

2%

1%

2%

2%

Bill Shorten

3%

6%

8%

5%

3%

Someone else

19%

23%

6%

33%

18%

Don’t know

17%

17%

6%

19%

19%

33% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 16% prefer Julia Gillard. This represents  declines of 1% for Kevin Rudd and 7% for Julia Gillard since this question was asked nearly 12 months ago. Those selecting “someone else” has increased from 19% to 23%.

Julia Gillard is preferred by 40% of Labor voters compared to 33% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 33% to 16% and women by 28% to 17%.

Comments »

Party Best At…

Apr 10, 2012

Q. Which party – Labor or Liberal – do you think is best when it comes to:

 

Labor

Liberal

No difference

Don’t know

Difference

Representing the interests of Australian working families

37%

25%

29%

9%

+12

Representing the interests of you and people like you

29%

35%

26%

10%

-6

Standing up for the middle class in Australia

26%

33%

30%

11%

-7

Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests

10%

54%

25%

11%

-44

Being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests

37%

22%

30%

11%

+15

Handling the economy overall

22%

41%

26%

10%

-19

Handling the economy in a way that tries to take the interests of working families into consideration as much as it takes the interests of the large corporate and financial groups

29%

34%

25%

12%

-5

Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business

22%

40%

25%

13%

-18

Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class

23%

38%

27%

12%

-15

Handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most.

26%

36%

27%

11%

-10

Labor was considered best at representing the interests of Australian working families (37%) and being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests (37%). The Liberals were considered best on all the other measures.

In particular, the Liberal Party was considered much better on representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests (54%), handling the economy overall (41%) and handling the economy in a way that best helps small business (40%).

Comments »

Party Best at Handling Economy

Mar 26, 2012

Q. Which party do you think would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you?

 

4 Jul 11

26 Mar 12

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

The Labor Party

26%

29%

76%

1%

39%

The Liberal Party

43%

41%

2%

89%

7%

No difference

23%

20%

14%

7%

45%

Don’t know

8%

10%

7%

4%

9%

 

41% (down 2% since July last year) think the Liberal Party would be best at handling the Australian economy in their interests and 29% (up 3%) nominated the Labor Party. 20% think there is no difference.

There were significant differences by income – those earning under $600pw split 38% Labor/30% Liberal while those earning over $1,600pw favoured the Liberal Party 49% to 23% Labor.

Comments »

Leadership Challenge Good or Bad for Government

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Do you think the recent leadership challenge has been good or bad for the Labor Government?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total good

13%

30%

7%

16%

Total bad

62%

39%

80%

50%

Very good

4%

10%

2%

4

Good

9%

20%

5%

12%

Neither good nor bad

18%

26%

12%

28%

Bad

24%

25%

22%

28%

Very bad

38%

14%

58%

22%

Don’t know

6%

4%

2%

6%

62% think that the recent leadership challenge was bad for the Labor Party and only 13% think it was good.

Labor voters were split – 39% think it was bad, 30% good and 26% neither good nor bad.

Comments »

More or Less Likely to Vote Labor

Mar 5, 2012

Q. Has the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader of the Labor Party made you more or less likely to support the ALP at the next federal election.

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Total more likely

13%

33%

5%

18%

Total less likely

47%

21%

64%

38%

Much more likely

6%

17%

1%

5%

A little more likely

7%

16%

4%

13%

A little less likely

10%

11%

7%

16%

Much less likely

37%

10%

57%

22%

Makes no difference

34%

42%

30%

43%

Don’t know

5%

3%

1%

47% say that the re-election of Julia Gillard as leader has made them less likely to support the Labor Party and only 13% say it has made them more likely to support the Labor Party at the next election.

Among Labor voters, 33% say it has made them more likely and 21% less likely to support Labor.

Comments »

Kevin Rudd’s Future

Mar 5, 2012

Q. What do you think Kevin Rudd should do now?

 

Total

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Stay in Parliament and challenge again

29%

30%

28%

29%

Stay in Parliament and not challenge again

28%

44%

17%

46%

Resign from Parliament

30%

17%

44%

20%

Don’t know

13%

8%

10%

5%

Respondents were divided about what Kevin Rudd should do – 30% say he should resign from parliament, 29% think he should stay and challenge again and 28% think he should stay and not challenge again.

Among Labor voters, 44% think he should stay and not challenge, while 44% of Liberal/National voters think he should resign from Parliament. 46% of Greens voters think he should stay in Parliament and not challenge again.

Comments »

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