050312, 5 March 2012, ALP, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor Party, Leadership Challenge, party leadership, Polling, polls, the media, tony abbott
Q. How would you rate the performance of the following during the Labor leadership challenge?
|
Total good |
Total poor |
Very good |
Good |
Average |
Poor |
Very poor |
Don’t know |
|
| Julia Gillard |
23% |
49% |
10% |
13% |
24% |
17% |
32% |
4% |
| Kevin Rudd |
33% |
35% |
12% |
21% |
27% |
16% |
19% |
4% |
| Labor Party Ministers |
10% |
52% |
2% |
8% |
30% |
25% |
27% |
8% |
| Tony Abbott |
25% |
40% |
9% |
16% |
27% |
18% |
22% |
8% |
| The media |
14% |
43% |
3% |
11% |
35% |
20% |
23% |
6% |
Apart from Kevin Rudd, the performance of all parties to the leadership challenge were rated poorly.
33% thought the performance of Kevin Rudd was good and 35% poor. For Julia Gillard the rating was 23% good and 49% poor. Labor Party Ministers were rated most negatively – 10% good and 52% poor.
However, Julia Gillard was rated a little better than Kevin Rudd by Labor voters – their rating of Julia Gillard was 50% good/15% poor compared to 49% good/22% poor for Kevin Rudd.
ALP, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Labor leadership, Labor Party, leadership, Polling, polls
Q. Who do you think is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Kevin Rudd |
18% |
27% |
16% |
21% |
| Julia Gillard |
39% |
28% |
55% |
16% |
| Other people in the Labor Party |
23% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
| The media |
10% |
16% |
4% |
25% |
| Don’t know |
10% |
7% |
4% |
12% |
39% of respondents think that Julia Gillard is mainly responsible for the leadership problems of the Labor Party, 23% think other people in the Labor Party are responsible and 18% think Kevin Rudd is responsible. Only 10% think the media are mainly responsible.
A majority (55%) of Liberal/National voters think Julia Gillard is mainly responsible while Labor and Greens voters are fairly evenly divided between Julia Gillard, Kevin Rudd and other people in the Labor Party. 25% of Greens voters think that the media are responsible.
13 February 2012, Approval of Julia Gillard, Approval rating, Julia Gillard, Labor Party, leadership, PM, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| 19 Jul 2010 | 20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | |
| Total approve | 52% | 43% | 41% | 34% | 28% | 34% | 37% | 34% | 37% | 36% |
| Total disapprove | 30% | 40% | 46% | 54% | 64% | 59% | 55% | 54% | 52% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 11% | 10% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 41% | 33% | 34% | 28% | 23% | 27% | 29% | 28% | 31% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 17% | 24% | 22% | 29% | 28% | 27% | 25% | 25% | 27% | 26% |
| Strongly disapprove | 13% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 29% | 25% | 27% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 17% | 13% | 13% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 12% | 11% |
Julia Gillard’s approval rating has remained much the same as last month. 36% (down 1%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 53% (up 1%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -17 over the last 4 weeks.
79% of Labor voters approve (up 3%) and 14% disapprove (down 1%).
By gender – men 39% approve/53% disapprove, women 34% approve/52% disapprove.
13 February 2012, ALP, Election, Julia Gillard, Labor Party, leadership, Liberal Party, Next Election, party leadership, tony abbott
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Julia Gillard | Yes | 31% | 54% | 19% | 43% |
| No | 47% | 22% | 70% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 24% | 11% | 31% | |
| Tony Abbott | Yes | 47% | 37% | 67% | 34% |
| No | 25% | 37% | 12% | 31% | |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 35% |
31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.
47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.
Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.
2012, 2012 Outlook, ALP, Labor Party, Liberal Party, LNP, political parties, Polling, polls, The Greens
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 8% | 28% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 12% |
| The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 16% | 49% | 3% | 13% | 23% | 29% | 20% | 11% |
| The Greens | 22% | 29% | 17% | 37% | 2% | 15% | 32% | 20% | 17% | 13% |
Respondents expect that 2012 is likely to be a relatively good year for the Liberal Party (36% good/24% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (16%/49%) and the Greens (17%/37%).
Among their own voters, 67% expect the Liberals to have a good year, 38% expect Labor to have a good year and 67% expect the Greens to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all political parties – The Liberal Party has dropped form net +17% to net +12%, the Labor Party from -21% to -33% and the Greens from -7% to -20%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2011, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year (net +12% next year this year compared to net -3% this year), the Labor Party to have a similar year (-33% next year, -37% this year) and the Greens to have a much worse year (-20% next year, +4% this year).
ALP, Julia Gillard, Labor leadership, Labor Party, Leader of Opposition, leadership, Liberals, LNP, Nationals, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 26% | 49% | 12% | 37% |
| No | 55% | 31% | 76% | 45% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 21% | 12% | 18% |
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party in 12 months time?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Yes | 41% | 26% | 64% | 29% |
| No | 34% | 53% | 16% | 53% |
| Don’t know | 25% | 21% | 20% | 18% |
Only 26% believe that Julia Gillard will still be leader of the Labor Party in 12 months time and 55% think she will not. Respondents were more likely to think that Tony Abbott would still be leading his party (41% yes, 34% no).
49% of Labor voters think Julia Gillard will still be leading her party, compared to 64% of Liberal/National voters who think Tony Abbott will still be leading his party.
ALP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, LNP, Past Year, political parties, Polling, polls
Q. Has it been a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
(Dec 10) |
Total bad
(Dec 10) |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Greens | 42% | 21% | 33% | 29% | 7% | 26% | 28% | 15% | 14% | 11% |
| The Liberal Party | 33% | 27% | 27% | 30% | 4% | 23% | 34% | 22% | 8% | 9% |
| The Labor Party | 21% | 47% | 16% | 53% | 2% | 14% | 22% | 33% | 21% | 8% |
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |||||
| Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | Total good | Total bad | |
| The Greens | 33% | 29% | 41% | 16% | 23% | 45% | 70% | 3% |
| The Liberal Party | 27% | 30% | 13% | 45% | 45% | 16% | 17% | 45% |
| The Labor Party | 16% | 53% | 35% | 32% | 7% | 73% | 11% | 48% |
Respondents were more likely to think it has been a good year for the Greens (33%) than the Liberal Party (27%) or the Labor Party (16%).
Among their own voters 70% think it has been a good year for the Greens, 45% the Liberal Party and 35% the Labor Party.
Compared to last year’s results, all parties figures have declined – The Greens net +21% to +4%, Liberals from net +6% to -3% and Labor from net -26% to -37%.
ALP, Approval of Julia Gillard, EMC, ER, Essential Media, Essential Report, Julia Gillard, Labor Party, Polling, polls, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
5 Jul | 19 Jul | 16 Aug | 20 Sep | 18 Oct | 22 Nov | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | |
| Total approve | 41% | 48% | 52% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 43% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 27% | 30% | 40% | 37% | 37% | 38% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 12% | 10% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Approve | 34% | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 36% | 36% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 13% | 17% | 24% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 14% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 15% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 26% | 18% | 13% | 19% | 18% | 18% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% |
41% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 48% (down 2% disapprove – a change in net rating from -13 to -7 over the last 4 weeks.
86% of Labor voters approve (up 8%) and 10% disapprove (down 2%).
By gender – men 38% approve/55% disapprove, women 45% approve/41% disapprove.