23 April 2012, 230412, 3q, EMC, National Broadband Network, NBN, peter lewis, trends
Peter Lewis presents polling that shows public opinion is turning in favour of the $40 billion national broadband network.
Until now the NBN has been an abstract debate about national building and future proofing the economy on one hand, and a misguided venture designed purely to waste taxpayers’ money on the other. Now it’s about to shift from rhetoric to reality, with roll out plans for about a third of households and businesses released last week.
23 April 2012, 230412, 2PP, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,892 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 26/3/12 |
2 weeks ago 10/4/12 |
Last week 16/4/12 |
This week 22/4/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
50% |
48% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
31% |
31% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
57% |
56% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
43% |
44% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
23 April 2012, 230412, Approval rating, Bob Brown, Greens, Parliament, Polling, polls, resignation, Senate, The Greens
Q. Last week Bob Brown resigned from Parliament and the leadership of the Greens, after 16 years as a member of the Senate. Do you approve or disapprove of the performance of Bob Brown over his 16 years in Parliament?
|
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Total approve |
42% |
60% |
24% |
89% |
| Total disapprove |
34% |
15% |
56% |
1% |
| Strongly approve |
9% |
14% |
3% |
38% |
| Approve |
33% |
46% |
21% |
51% |
| Disapprove |
19% |
13% |
29% |
1% |
| Strongly disapprove |
15% |
2% |
27% |
– |
| Don’t know |
24% |
25% |
20% |
10 |
42% approve the performance of Bob Brown over his 16 years in Parliament and 34% disapprove. A majority of Greens voters (89%) and Labor voters (60%) approve but 56% of Liberal/National voters disapprove.
Men split 40% approve/41% disapprove compared to women 43% approve/28% disapprove.
By age group, approval/disapproval was 46%/21% for under 35’s, 43%/31% for 35-54’s and 35%/56% for 55+.
23 April 2012, 230412, ALP, Bill Shorten, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor Party, leadership, party leadership, Polling, polls, Wayne Swan
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Labor Party?
|
30 May 2011 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
23% |
16% |
40% |
4% |
21% |
| Kevin Rudd |
32% |
31% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
| Wayne Swan |
2% |
4% |
6% |
4% |
5% |
| Greg Combet |
4% |
2% |
1% |
2% |
2% |
| Bill Shorten |
3% |
6% |
8% |
5% |
3% |
| Someone else |
19% |
23% |
6% |
33% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
17% |
6% |
19% |
19% |
33% think Kevin Rudd would make the best leader of the Labor Party and 16% prefer Julia Gillard. This represents declines of 1% for Kevin Rudd and 7% for Julia Gillard since this question was asked nearly 12 months ago. Those selecting “someone else” has increased from 19% to 23%.
Julia Gillard is preferred by 40% of Labor voters compared to 33% for Kevin Rudd. Men prefer Kevin Rudd over Julia Gillard 33% to 16% and women by 28% to 17%.
23 April 2012, 230412, Joe Hockey, leadership, LIB, Liberal Party, malcolm turnbull, party leadership, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?
|
27 Sep 2010 |
28 Feb 2011 |
30 May 2011 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
24% |
22% |
23% |
11% |
39% |
3% |
| Malcolm Turnbull |
20% |
18% |
25% |
30% |
37% |
26% |
53% |
| Joe Hockey |
15% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
12% |
17% |
12% |
| Julie Bishop |
5% |
4% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
| Andrew Robb |
na |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
– |
| Someone else |
na |
14% |
13% |
12% |
16% |
6% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
33% |
22% |
19% |
16% |
18% |
7% |
10 |
30% (+5%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 23% (+1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (-3%) Joe Hockey.
Among Liberal/National voters, 39% (-1%) prefer Tony Abbott, 26% (+7%) Malcolm Turnbull and 17% (-5%) Joe Hockey.
Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 33% of men and 28% of women, Tony Abbott by 26% of men and 19% of women.
23 April 2012, 230412, mining, mining benefits, Mining Boom, Mining tax, Polling, polls
Q. How much have you personally benefited from Australia’s mining boom?
|
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| A lot |
2% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
| Somewhat |
5% |
8% |
4% |
2% |
| A little |
12% |
14% |
12% |
11% |
| Not at all |
66% |
62% |
70% |
67% |
| Don’t know |
14% |
13% |
12% |
19 |
Only 7% think they have benefited a lot or somewhat from Australia’s mining boom. 78% believe they have benefited a little or not at all.
Those most likely to say they have not benefited at all were women (71%), aged 55+ (74%) and those on incomes under $600 pw (72%).
23 April 2012, 230412, mining, mining companies, Mining Companies’ Tax, Mining tax, Polling, polls, tax
Q. Overall, do you think mining companies pay too much tax, not enough tax or about the right amount of tax?
|
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| Pay too much tax |
11% |
8% |
15% |
2% |
| Don’t pay enough tax |
37% |
54% |
25% |
63% |
| Pay about the right amount of tax |
27% |
18% |
37% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
25% |
20% |
22% |
29% |
37% think mining companies don’t pay enough tax, 27% think they pay about the right amount and 11% think they pay too much.
Groups most likely to think they don’t pay enough were men (42%), aged 35-54 (41%) and those earning over $1,600 pw (44%).
23 April 2012, 230412, Minerals Resource Rent Tax, mining, Mining tax, MRRT, Polling, polls, profits, tax
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the proposed mining tax (called the Minerals Resource Rent Tax) on large profits of mining companies?
|
12 Jul 2010 |
5 Sep 2011 |
21 Nov |
20 Feb 2012 |
12 Mar 2012 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
50% |
46% |
51% |
55% |
52% |
51% |
77% |
35% |
77% |
| Total disapprove |
28% |
34% |
33% |
28% |
34% |
29% |
8% |
50% |
7% |
| Strongly approve |
13% |
18% |
18% |
23% |
20% |
19% |
36% |
8% |
41% |
| Approve |
37% |
28% |
33% |
32% |
32% |
32% |
41% |
27% |
36% |
| Disapprove |
18% |
18% |
20% |
17% |
22% |
20% |
6% |
33% |
7% |
| Strongly disapprove |
10% |
16% |
13% |
11% |
12% |
9% |
2% |
17% |
– |
| Don’t know |
22% |
19% |
15% |
17% |
14% |
20% |
16% |
15% |
16% |
51% approve the Government’s proposed mining tax and 29% disapprove. This represents a strengthening in support over the last 6 weeks (from net +18% to net +22%).
Labor voters (77%) and Greens voters (77%) strongly support the tax – but Liberal/National voters disapprove 50% to 35%.