2PP, Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, NSW, QLD, SA, Victoria, Voting intention, WA
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
First preference
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal | 40% | 42% | 37% | 42% | 39% | 47% |
| National | 3% | 4% | 3% | 4% | – | 2% |
| Coalition | 43% | 46% | 40% | 46% | 40% | 49% |
| Labor | 40% | 38% | 43% | 36% | 39% | 37% |
| Greens | 10% | 7% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 10% |
| Others | 7% | 8% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 5% |
2PP
| Total | NSW | Victoria | Queensland | SA | WA | |
| Liberal/National | 49% | 52% | 45% | 53% | 46% | 53% |
| Labor | 51% | 48% | 55% | 47% | 54% | 47% |
| Labor 2PP 2007 election | 52.7% | 53.7% | 54.3% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 46.7% |
| Shift in Labor vote since 2007 election | -1.7 | -5.7 | +0.7 | -3.4 | +1.6 | +0.3 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 3-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
2,763 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 35% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 39% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 38% | 39% | 39% | 42% |
| Labor | 44% | 41% | 41% | 40% | 41% |
| Greens | 10% | 13% | 13% | 13% | 10% |
| Family First | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 3% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 45% | 45% | 45% | 46% | 48% |
| Labor | 55% | 55% | 55% | 54% | 52% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
Greens, Labor, Liberal, Senate, Voting intention
Q. Regardless of which party is elected to Government (i.e. has a majority in the House of Representatives), which of the following Senate options do you think would be best for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Liberal/ National | Vote Greens | |
| The Government has a majority in the Senate | 29% | 41% | 33% | 5% |
| The Opposition party has a majority in the Senate | 10% | 3% | 21% | 2% |
| The Greens and the independents (like Xenophon and Fielding) together hold the balance of power in the Senate | 27% | 25% | 27% | 35% |
| The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate | 12% | 14% | 3% | 50% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 18% | 16% | 7% |
Opinions about the balance of power in the Senate are mixed. 29% prefer the Government to have a majority and 27% prefer the Greens and independents combined to hold the balance of power. Only 12% want the Greens on their own to hold the balance of power and 10% would prefer the opposition to have a majority. Overall, 39% want one of the major parties to have a majority and 39% want minor parties to hold the balance of power.
85% of Greens voters want the Greens or Greens and independents to hold the balance of power compared to 39% of Labor voters and 30% of Liberal/National voters. Comments »
Election, Family First, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?
Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?
1,875 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 35% | 37% | 36% | 36% | 37% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 40% | 39% | 38% | 39% |
| Labor | 45% | 38% | 42% | 41% | 41% |
| Greens | 8% | 11% | 11% | 13% | 13% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 44% | 48% | 46% | 45% | 45% |
| Labor | 56% | 52% | 54% | 55% | 55% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.
Abbott, Gillard, Greens, Labor, Liberal, preferred PM, Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott
28 Jun 10 |
Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott
5 Jul 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 50% | 91% | 8% | 71% | 47% | 49% | 53% | |
| Tony Abbott | 27% | 2% | 70% | 4% | 30% | 29% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 23% | 7% | 21% | 25% | 23% | 22% | 21% |
50% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 27% prefer Tony Abbott – a slight closing of the gap between the two (from 27% to 23%) since last polled 2 weeks ago.
Julia Gillard is preferred 91% to 2% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 70% to 8% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 71% to 4%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 47%/32% and women 53%/23%. Comments »
Abbott, Gillard, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
Julia Gillard v Tony Abbott
28 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 94% | 12% | 72% | 47% | 49% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 2% | 70% | 3% | 30% | 29% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 4% | 18% | 24% | 23% | 22% |
53% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 26% prefer Tony Abbott – somewhat better than Kevin Rudd’s last result of 47%/30% and also better than last week’s figures for Julia Gillard just after she became Prime Minister.
Men prefer Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott 48% to 31% and women 57%/22%. Comments »
Q. Which of the following parties – Labor, Liberal or Greens – do you think is the best party when it comes to –
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| Representing the interests of Australian working people | 52% (+10) | 24% (-3) | 5% | 20% |
| Handling the economy in a way that best protects working people in Australia | 44% (+8) | 33% (-2) | 3% | 20% |
| Understanding the needs of the average Australian | 36% (+7) | 24% (-3) | 9% | 31% |
| Representing the interests of you and people like you | 39% (+7) | 31% (-1) | 12% | 18% |
| Handling Australia’s economy | 37% (+7) | 41% (-1) | 3% | 19% |
| Standing up to the big multinational corporations | 32% (-) | 28% (+1) | 15% | 26% |
| Having a vision for Australia’s future | 32% (+3) | 31% (-2) | 12% | 25% |
| Taking Australia forward, not backwards | 34% (+5) | 32% (-2) | 9% | 25% |
| Handling Australia’s relations with other countries | 34% (+4) | 39% (+1) | 3% | 24% |
| Dealing with the issue of immigration | 23% (+3) | 40% (-1) | 8% | 28% |
| Being honest and ethical | 18% (-1) | 22% (+1) | 17% | 44% |
| Handling environmental and climate change issues | 18% (-1) | 18% (-1) | 42% | 23% |
(figures in brackets indicate change since this question was asked 3 weeks ago)
Labor key strengths are representing the interests of Australian working people (52%/24%), handling the economy in a way that best protects working people (44%/33%) and understanding the needs of the average Australian (36%/24%). The Liberal Party’s strengths are dealing with the issue of immigration (40%) and handling Australia’s relations with other countries (39%).
Perceptions of the Labor Party have improved considerably over the last 3 weeks mainly in terms of economic issues and representing the interests and needs of the community. However, there has been little change in Labor’s figures for standing up to the big multinational corporations, being honest and ethical and handling environmental and climate change issues. Comments »
Greens, Labor, Liberal, National, population
Q. It has been estimated that Australia will have a population of 36 million by 2050. Do you think this will be good or bad for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 16% | 17% | 18% | 16% |
| Total bad | 55% | 50% | 63% | 58% |
| Very good | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% |
| Good | 13% | 13% | 15% | 13% |
| Neither good nor bad | 21% | 26% | 15% | 22% |
| Bad | 32% | 32% | 35% | 36% |
| Very bad | 23% | 18% | 28% | 22% |
| Don’t know | 8% | 7% | 5% | 4% |
55% believe that having a population of 36 million by 2050 will be bad for Australia – 16% think it will be good for Australia.
The concern about this level of population is fairly similar across voter groups – although Liberal/National voters (63%) are more likely to think it is bad than Labor voters (50%). Comments »