2PP, Election, Federal Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
1,912 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 37% | 41% | 40% | 42% | 42% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 44% | 43% | 44% | 44% |
| Labor | 41% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 41% |
| Greens | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
2PP, Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
1921 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 36% | 40% | 42% | 40% | 42% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 43% | 45% | 43% | 44% |
| Labor | 43% | 39% | 40% | 42% | 42% |
| Greens | 10% | 11% | 9% | 9% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 8% | 7% | 6% | 6% | 8% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 49% | 50% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 51% | 50% | 51% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »
2PP, Election, Federal Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, National, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
1910 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 36% | 41% | 41% | 42% | 40% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 39% | 44% | 44% | 45% | 43% |
| Labor | 43% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 42% |
| Greens | 9% | 11% | 10% | 9% | 9% |
| Other/Independent | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
Greens, Labor, Liberal, National Broadband Network, NBN
Q. From what you’ve heard, do you favour or oppose the planned national broadband network, or don’t you know enough about it to have an opinion one way or the other?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens
|
|
| Total favour | 56% | 81% | 31% | 72% |
| Total oppose | 18% | 3% | 38% | 4% |
| Strongly favour | 27% | 50% | 7% | 41% |
| Favour | 29% | 31% | 24% | 31% |
| Oppose | 12% | 2% | 25% | 4% |
| Strongly oppose | 6% | 1% | 13% | * |
| Don’t know | 26% | 15% | 30% | 24% |
56% of people favour the national broadband network.
81% of Labor voters, compared with 31% of Lib/Nat voters favour the planned national broadband network.
65% of males, compared with 47% of females favour the planned national broadband network.
38% of females, compared with 13% of males don’t know enough about it to have an opinion one way or the other.
Support for the planned national broadband network is highest in the 45-54 years age category (64% favour). Support is lowest in the 65+ yeas age category (47% favour).
63% of Victorian favour the planned national broadband network.
Election, Greens, Minority Government
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the agreement between the Labor Party and the Greens for the Greens to give their support to the Labor Party?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total approve | 41% | 84% | 4% | 79% |
| Total disapprove | 46% | 7% | 90% | 10% |
| Strongly approve | 12% | 27% | – | 30% |
| Approve | 29% | 57% | 4% | 49% |
| Disapprove | 18% | 4% | 32% | 8% |
| Strongly disapprove | 28% | 3% | 58% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 14% | 10% | 6% | 13% |
Respondents were also split over the agreement between the Labor Party and the Greens for the Greens to give their support to the Labor Party – 41% approve and 46% disapprove – with views closely associated with party preferences.
84% of Labor voters and 79% of Greens voters approve while 90% of Coalition voters disapprove (and 58% strongly disapprove). Comments »
Q. Some people have suggested that the party which increased its strength most in the recent election was the Greens. Do you think the increased strength of the Greens is good or bad for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total good | 45% | 68% | 19% | 96% |
| Total bad | 38% | 15% | 70% | 2% |
| Very good | 13% | 18% | 2% | 60% |
| Good | 32% | 50% | 17% | 36% |
| Bad | 18% | 11% | 30% | – |
| Very bad | 20% | 4% | 40% | 2% |
| Don’t know | 17% | 17% | 11% | 3% |
45% believe the increased strength of the Greens is good for Australia and 38% bad. 68% of Labor voters think it is good and 70% of Coalition voters think it is bad (40% say very bad). Comments »
Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2,106 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 37% | 39% | 42% | 41% | 40% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 42% | 45% | 44% | 43% |
| Labor | 43% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 39% |
| Greens | 9% | 10% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Family First | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Other/Independent | 7% | 5% | 4% | 5% | 6% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 48% | 50% | 50% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 52% | 50% | 50% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »
Coalition, Election, Essential, Galaxy, Greens, Independents, Labor, Morgan, Newspoll, Nielsen, Polling
All pollsters performed well in estimating the 2PP vote – all were within 0.3% to 1.3% of the current result. The Essential Report and Morgan Research were closest with 51/49. Newspoll’s 50.2/49.8 was next closest with Nielsen and Galaxy 1.3% off at 52/48.
However, a better way to compare the polls is to look at their first preferences for the major parties. Because the 2PP is based on an assumed distribution of preferences – not on the actual measurement of voting intentions.
Although all polls were within the margin of error, based on estimates for the 3 major party groupings, Essential Report was clearly the closest – their average difference being just 0.5%. Most polls over-estimated the Greens vote and Newspoll underestimated the Labor vote.
This is the first Federal election where public online polling has been used extensively, and the performance of the Essential Report poll is significant in that it has shown this methodology can provide reliable and valid measures of public opinion.
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor | 38.5% | 36.2% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 38% |
| Coalition | 43.5% | 43.2% | 41.5% | 41% | 42% | 43% |
| Greens | 11.4% | 13.9% | 13% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
| Others | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 7% | 7% | 7% |
| Average difference (Labor, Coalition & Greens) | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| Actual current | Newspoll | Nielsen | Galaxy | Morgan | Essential | |
| Labor 2PP | 50.7% | 50.2% | 52% | 52 | 51% | 51% |
| Difference | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.3 |