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  • Nov, 2010

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    Benefit of NBN

    Q. Thinking about the Government’s plan to build a national broadband network, how much benefit will a national broadband network be to-

    Total benefit Great

    benefit

    Some benefit Little benefit Don’t know Total benefit

    April 09

    Australian businesses 84% 55% 29% 8% 8% 80%
    Schools 78% 48% 30% 14% 8% na
    The general public overall 78% 44% 34% 15% 8% 76%
    Children 72% 39% 33% 19% 9% na
    The Australian economy 71% 39% 32% 18% 11% 65%
    You personally 65% 33% 32% 27% 8% 66%
    The economy of your local community 65% 32% 33% 24% 12% na

    The NBN is thought to be of most benefit to Australian business (84%), schools (78%) and the general public overall (78%). Since this question was last asked in April 2009, perceptions of benefit have increased for Australian business (+4%) and the Australian economy (+6%).

    65% think they will personally benefit from the NBN. Those most likely to think they will benefit personally are aged under 35 (74%) Labor voters (83%), Greens voters (80%) and full-time workers (71%).

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  • Nov, 2010

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    Christmas Spending

    Q. And now about Christmas spending – compared to last year, do you expect to be spending more on gifts at Christmas, less or much the same?

    Dec 08 Dec 09 Nov 10
    Will spend more 3% 11% 10%
    Will be spending less 38% 38% 38%
    Spend much the same 55% 47% 48%
    Don’t know 5% 4% 5%

    Views about spending on gifts at Christmas remain much the same as last year. 10% say they will spend more, 38% spend less and 48% much the same.

    16% of those aged under 35 say they will spend more, 46% of those aged 35-44 will spend less and 59% of those aged 55+ will spend much the same. There is no significant relationship between changes in spending and income.

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  • Nov, 2010

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    Julia, Blokes and the Bradley Effect

    First Published on The Drum 23/11/2010

    As if dealing with four independent blokes, a Green bloke and a blokey bloke in charge of the Opposition is not enough, now Julia Gillard is developing a problem with blokes outside the Parliament.

    Having politely indicated that they were happy with a female Prime Minister in the lead-up to the federal election, this week’s Essential Report picks up sharp moves in the attitudes of the brotherhood.

    In the absence of any compelling policy development to explain the surge, we are left with the Bradley Effect, the theory created to explain why an African-American candidate lost the 1982 race for Governor of California despite having a massive lead in the polls.

    The details of the Bradley Effect later, first some numbers from this week’s Essential Report.

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  • Nov, 2010

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    The fight for the kitchen table

    First Published on The Drum 09/11/2010

    Nations may rise and fall by the sweep of history but governments are decided at the kitchen table, where all politics becomes not just local, but personal.

    This is the place where bills and mortgage payments are pored over, family budgets are scrutinised, jobs and school are discussed. It is the space in family life where things have to add up.

    Anyone trying to dig Labor out of its current hole could start by turning their attention to the kitchen table, because if this week’s Essential Report is anything to go by, Labor is in the middle of an increasingly messy food-fight.
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  • Nov, 2010

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    Regulation is the new black

    First Published on The Drum 02/11/2010

    Joe Hockey is swanning around the airwaves like the coolest kid at school, convinced he’s discovered a new fad that’s sure to catch on. It’s called regulation and it rocks.

    Of course many old hands may wonder whether all Joe has done is stumble upon a bit of retro, like some early Midnight Oil recordings, but right now Joe is stoked, he’s got a new tattoo and everyone is checking him out. Even the Greens want to play with him.

    Still, if the old post-election cliche that the ‘people always get it right’ has any sort of credibility, Joe’s biggest risk is he’ll soon be overtaken by a bunch of converts who want to take the trend way more seriously than a wide-boy with a beat-box can.

    As the latest Essential Report shows, there are votes to be won in regulating the bastard banks, especially in a week when Westpac is tipped to tip the Big Four’s profits over the $20 billion mark.

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  • Oct, 2010

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    Labor should tread (water) warily

    First Published on The Drum 19/10/2010

    As the Federal Government attempts to quell the backlash to its plans to save the Murray Darling by slowing the process to a crawl, it would do well to consider the lessons of the recently aborted Emissions Trading Scheme.

    If there were a structured training program for politicians (and maybe there should be) the former Rudd government’s failure to deliver on its commitment to address climate change would be a required text.

    It is a story of how tortured process can kill off reform, confuse would-be supporters, drain the public of confidence in their government and ultimately leave leaders in a no-win situation.

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  • Oct, 2010

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    Holding centre ground can be war

    First Published on The Drum 12/10/2010

    Attempting to manage public confidence in the war in Afghanistan, the Labor Party is exposing its left flank in a way that calls into question three decades of political centrism.

    These are challenging times for the ALP, with minority control in Canberra, hand-wringing election post mortems and flagging state administrations around the nation. A key theme appears to be ‘Labor has lost its way’.

    But what is the ALP way? Since at least the Whitlam era, Labor orthodoxy has been that the occupation of the centre ground was a precondition for electoral success. Careers were built on the tough work of shifting Labor from ideological dogma to more pragmatic policies.

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  • Oct, 2010

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    The Bride (and Bridesmaid) stripped bare

    First Published on The Drum 05/10/2010

    New paradigms notwithstanding, the first week of the 43rd Parliament of Australia has confirmed a continuation of the gladiatorial contests that have characterised Australia’s model of presidential politics.

    And that means a confronting truth for both Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott: the public’s perceptions of their personal strengths and weakness are central to the success of their respective political projects.

    There was a time when character research was a dark art, the province of party focus groups, only dusted of at election time when attacks would be constructed around a candidate’s lack of ticker (read weight) or stubbornness (read age). The modern opinion polling means today it’s all out in the open.

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