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  • Mar, 2011

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    The polling that drives dog whistle politics … and may cure them

    First published on The Drum: 01/03/2011

    Here is the polling that is driving Scott Morrison’s subterranean attack on Muslims, confirmation that a majority of Australians are concerned about their numbers.

    For too long conservative blowhards like Morrison have been running agendas that directly reference these findings but because they have remained hidden in a desk drawer they are merely debating an issue.

    After much soul-searching, Essential has decided to commit an act of political interruption. We debated whether it was worth giving voice to these attitudes long and hard, but we believe getting this stuff out in the open is the only way to silence the dog whistle.

    Q. Are you concerned about the number of Muslim people in Australia?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total concerned 57% 50% 69% 32%
    Total not concerned 38% 46% 28% 68%
    Very Concerned 28% 21% 37% 12%
    Somewhat concerned 29% 29% 32% 20%
    Not very concerned 21% 23% 19% 27%
    Not at all concerned 17% 23% 9% 41%
    Don’t know/Refused 5% 4% 2%

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  • Feb, 2011

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    Muslim Migrants

    Q. In your view, should the Australian government exclude Muslims from our migrant intake?
    (Question commissioned by Network Ten)

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Men Women Aged 18-34 Aged 35-44 Aged 55+
    Yes 25% 21% 33% 8% 26% 25% 19% 26% 31%
    No 55% 62% 49% 83% 55% 54% 56% 57% 49%
    Don’t know/Refused 20% 17% 18% 8% 19% 21% 25% 17% 20%

    25% of respondents believed that the Australian government should exclude Muslims from our migrant intake and 55% disagreed. Those most likely to think Muslims should be excluded from our migration intake were Liberal/National voters (33%) and people aged 55+ (31%).

    Download the Network Ten Essential Question of the Week (1.1 MB pdf)

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  • Feb, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size =1,964

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 42% 41% 40% 42%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 45% 44% 43% 45%
    Labor 38.0 37% 40% 39% 37%
    Greens 11.8 11% 10% 11% 10%
    Other/Independent 6.6 7% 6% 7% 7%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 51% 50% 49% 52%
    Labor 50.1% 49% 50% 51% 48%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Feb, 2011

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    Liberal party Leadership

    Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?

    27 Sep 10 28 February 2011
    Total Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Tony Abbott 26% 24% 9% 45% 1%
    Malcolm Turnbull 20% 18% 24% 16% 29%
    Joe Hockey 15% 16% 18% 17% 17%
    Julie Bishop 5% 4% 6% 2% 4%
    Andrew Robb na 1% 1% 1% 2%
    Someone else na 14% 18% 8% 27%
    Don’t know 33% 22% 23% 10% 20%

    24% of respondents believed that Tony Abbott is the best leader of the Liberal Party, 18% prefer Malcolm Turnbull and 16% Joe Hockey.

    Tony Abbott is preferred by 45% of Liberal/National voters while Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by Labor (24%) and Greens voters (29%).

    Tony Abbott is more preferred by men (30%) – women are split between Tony Abbott (19%) and Joe Hockey (19%). 23% of men prefer Malcolm Turnbull compared to 14% of women.

    These figures are little changed since the question was last asked in September 2010.

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  • Feb, 2011

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    Contribution of Multiculturalism

    Q. Overall, has multiculturalism (that is, the acceptance of people from different countries, cultures and religions) made a positive or negative contribution to Australian society?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total positive 57% 65% 54% 75%
    Total negative 29% 24% 36% 12%
    Very positive 15% 20% 10% 34%
    Positive 42% 45% 44% 41%
    Negative 18% 16% 21% 9%
    Very negative 11% 8% 15% 9%
    Made no difference 6% 6% 5% 3%
    Don’t know 8% 4% 4% 4%

    57% believe that multiculturalism has made a positive contribution to Australian society and 29% believe the contribution has been negative. A majority of all party voter groups believe the contribution has been positive.

    Older respondents tend to have a more negative view – those aged 55+ were split 48% positive/45% negative while those aged under 35 were 65% positive and 18% negative.

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  • Feb, 2011

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    Immigration and Religion

    Q. When a family applies to migrate to Australia, should it be possible for them to be rejected purely on the basis of their religion?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Should be rejected on basis of religion 19% 17% 24% 10%
    Should not be rejected on basis of religion 65% 67% 63% 85%
    Don’t know 15% 16% 13% 5%

    65% believed that when a family applies to migrate to Australia, they should not be rejected purely on the basis of their religion and 19% think it should be possible to reject purely based on religion. There were no substantial differences across age and gender groups.

    Liberal voters were a little more supportive of being able to reject based on religion (24%) and Greens voters were strongly opposed (85%).

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  • Feb, 2011

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    Concern about Muslims (pre information)

    Q. Are you concerned about the number of Muslim people in Australia?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total concerned 57% 50% 69% 32%
    Total not concerned 38% 46% 28% 68%
    Very Concerned 28% 21% 37% 12%
    Somewhat concerned 29% 29% 32% 20%
    Not very concerned 21% 23% 19% 27%
    Not at all concerned 17% 23% 9% 41%
    Don’t know/Refused 5% 4% 2%

    57% were very or somewhat concerned about the number of Muslim people in Australia while 38% were not very or not at all concerned. Concern is higher among Liberal/National voters (69%) and lower among Greens voters (32%).  72% of people aged 55+ say they are concerned.

    Level of concern is related to perceptions of the number of Muslim people in Australia. The table below shows that those who think there are higher numbers of Muslims in Australia are much more likely to be concerned.

    Estimated % Muslims in Australia
    Total 1-2% 3-5% 6-10% Over 10%
    Total concerned 57% 44% 52% 68% 79%
    Total not concerned 38% 54% 46% 31% 19%

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  • Feb, 2011

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    Fastest Growing Religion

    Q. Which of the following religions do you think has grown the fastest in Australia during the 10 years between 1996 and 2006, when the last national census was taken?


    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Christianity (including Catholic, Uniting Church, Anglican, etc) 8% 7% 11% 7%
    Hinduism 3% 2% 3% 4%
    Islam (Muslim) 57% 58% 64% 50%
    Buddhism 5% 3% 4% 11%
    Judaism (Jewish) * 1%
    Don’t know/Refuse 27% 29% 19% 27%


    57% believe that Islam is the fastest growing religion in Australia. This perception is broadly similar across all age/gender groups – although a little higher for Liberal/National voters (64%) and those aged 55+ (65%).

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