Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 17, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,796 respondents 

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

20/1/15

2 weeks ago 3/2/15

Last week

10/2/15

This week 17/2/15

Liberal

 

36%

35%

36%

36%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

40%

38%

39%

39%

Labor

33.4%

40%

41%

41%

41%

Greens

8.6%

10%

9%

10%

10%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

2%

3%

3%

2%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

9%

8%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

20/1/15

2 weeks ago 3/2/15

Last week

10/2/15

This week 17/2/15

Liberal National

53.5%

47%

46%

46%

46%

Labor

46.5%

53%

54%

54%

54%

 

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Approval of rejecting spill motion

Feb 17, 2015

Q. This week the Liberal Party MPs rejected a motion to hold an election for leadership positions. Do you approve or disapprove of their decision?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Total approve

40%

21%

71%

22%

37%

Total disapprove

40%

63%

18%

55%

42%

Strongly approve

16%

8%

33%

5%

11%

Approve

24%

13%

38%

17%

26%

Disapprove

22%

30%

13%

32%

22%

Strongly disapprove

18%

33%

5%

23%

20%

Don’t know

20%

15%

11%

23%

21%

 

40% approve of the Liberal Party’s rejection of motion to spill the leadership positions and 40% disapprove.

71% of Liberal/National voters approve.

Leadership options for Liberal Party

Feb 17, 2015

Q. Which of the following options for the leadership of the Liberal Party do you favour? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

Replace Tony Abbott as soon as possible

39%

63%

14%

50%

46%

Give Tony Abbott six months to improve his performance

22%

15%

34%

16%

19%

Keep Tony Abbott as leader until the next election

28%

15%

48%

24%

25%

Don’t know

11%

7%

5%

10%

10%

 

39% think that Tony Abbott should be replaced as leader of the Liberal Party as soon as possible and 22% think he should be given six months to improve his performance. 28% think he should remain leader until the next election.

48% of Liberal/National voters think he should remain leader until the next election and 34% think he should be given six months to improve his performance.

Next election

Feb 17, 2015

Q. Which party do you think is most likely to win the next Federal election due in 2016? 

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Total Dec 2014

Labor Party

49%

87%

18%

62%

44%

46%

Liberal/National Party

23%

3%

57%

11%

10%

27%

Can’t say

28%

10%

26%

27%

46%

27%

 

49% think the Labor Party is most likely to win the next election and 23% think the Liberal/National Party is most likely to win. 28% could not give an opinion. This represents a shift toward the Labor Party since this question was asked in December.

87% (up 3%) of Labor voters think the Labor Party is most likely to win and 57% (down 7%) of Liberal/National voters think the Liberal/National Party will win.

Tony Abbott leader at next election

Feb 17, 2015

Q. Do you think Tony Abbott is likely or unlikely to still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the next election?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Total Dec 2014

Likely

20%

12%

36%

12%

12%

29%

Unlikely

61%

79%

40%

70%

80%

51%

Don’t know

19%

9%

23%

18%

8%

20%

 

61% (up 10% since December) think that Tony Abbott is unlikely to still be leader of the Liberal Party at the next election and 20% (down 9%) think it is likely.

79% (up 7%) of Labor voters and 70% (up 2%) of Greens voters think it is unlikely and 36% (down 14%) of Liberal/National voters think it is likely he will still be leader.

Party Trust to Handle Issues

Feb 17, 2015

Q.  Which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?

 

Liberal

Labor

Greens

Don’t know

 

Difference

 

Difference

June 2014

Management of the economy

42%

25%

5%

28%

+17

+13

Ensuring a quality education for all children

28%

38%

8%

26%

-10

-15

Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system

28%

38%

7%

27%

-10

-13

Protecting the environment

17%

16%

42%

25%

-25

-22

A fair industrial relations system

28%

38%

6%

28%

-10

-11

Political leadership

32%

25%

5%

37%

+7

+6

Addressing climate change

18%

19%

36%

28%

-17

-12

Controlling interest rates

36%

23%

5%

37%

+13

+12

Australian jobs and protection of local industries

28%

37%

6%

29%

-9

-12

Ensuring a quality water supply

25%

19%

26%

31%

+6

+5

Housing affordability

25%

31%

7%

37%

-6

-4

Ensuring a fair taxation system

31%

33%

6%

31%

-2

+1

Security and the war on terrorism

41%

22%

4%

33%

+19

+16

Treatment of asylum seekers

33%

20%

18%

29%

+13

+17

Managing population growth

32%

20%

9%

39%

+12

+10

Note – Differences are calculated by subtracting Labor % from Liberal % – except for the two issues on which the Greens lead in which case it is Liberal minus Greens.

The Liberal Party is trusted more to handle security and the war on terrorism (+19), management of the economy (+17), controlling interest rates (+13) and treatment of asylum seekers (+13). The Labor Party is trusted more to handle a quality education for all children (-10), ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system  (-10), a fair industrial relations system (-10) and Australian jobs and protection of local industries (-9).

There have been no substantial movements since this question was asked in June. Main changes have been an improvement for the Liberal Party on education (up net 5 points), the economy (up 4) and treatment of asylum seekers (down 4).

Retaining telephone and internet records

Feb 17, 2015

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the government proposal to require telecommunications companies and internet service providers to retain records of your telephone and internet activity for intelligence and criminal investigation purposes?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote Other

 

Aug 2014

Total approve

40%

33%

60%

23%

34%

39%

Total disapprove

44%

54%

28%

62%

58%

51%

Strongly approve

9%

7%

16%

1%

6%

10%

Approve

31%

26%

44%

22%

28%

29%

Disapprove

21%

24%

16%

26%

27%

21%

Strongly disapprove

23%

30%

12%

36%

31%

30%

Don’t know

16%

12%

13%

14%

8%

11%

40% (up 1% since August) approve of the government proposal to require telecommunications companies and internet service providers to retain records of your telephone and internet activity for intelligence and criminal investigation purposes and 44% (down 7%) disapprove.

62% of Greens voters and 54% of Labor voters disapprove while 60% of Liberal/National voters approve.

52% of respondents aged 18-24 disapprove while 50% of those aged 55+ approve.

Building submarines in Australia

Feb 17, 2015

Q. Thinking about the plans to replace Australia’s submarine fleet, which of the following statements is closest to your view?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

The submarines should be built in Australia only if the cost is less than having them made overseas

12%

11%

16%

13%

8%

The submarines should be built in Australia only if the cost is similar or less than having them made overseas

34%

31%

43%

26%

38%

The submarines should be built in Australia even if it costs more than having them made overseas

37%

42%

33%

38%

43%

Don’t know

17%

16%

9%

22%

12%

 

37% think that Australia’s replacement submarines should be built in Australia even if it costs more than having them made overseas.

34% think they should be built in Australia if the cost is similar or less and only 12% think they should only be built in Australia if the cost is less.

Those most likely to think they should be built in Australia even if they cost more were aged 55+ (48%) and living in South Australia (60%).