State of the economy
Q. Overall, how would you describe the current state of the Australian economy?
|
28 May 12 |
Total 8 Apr 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
35% |
45% |
63% |
33% |
63% |
| Total poor |
29% |
26% |
13% |
37% |
10% |
| Very good |
6% |
8% |
18% |
3% |
9% |
| Good |
29% |
37% |
45% |
30% |
54% |
| Neither good nor poor |
33% |
28% |
23% |
30% |
27% |
| Poor |
20% |
17% |
10% |
24% |
7% |
| Very poor |
9% |
9% |
3% |
13% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
2% |
2% |
1% |
* |
1% |
45% described the economy as good or very good and 26% poor/very poor – 28% said it was neither. This represents a net improvement from +6 to +19 since May last year.
Those most likely to think the economy was good/very good were people with incomes $1,000-$1,600pw (52%).
Those most likely to think the economy was poor/very poor were aged 55+ (33%) and people with incomes under $600pw (35%).
Agreement with economic figures
Q. Some say that official figures show Australia’s economy is doing very well, especially compared to the rest of the world. The interest rate, the unemployment rate and the inflation rate are all at relatively low levels. Do you agree or disagree that this shows the state of the economy is good?
|
28 May 12 |
Total 8 Apr 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total agree |
52% |
56% |
76% |
42% |
77% |
| Total disagree |
37% |
37% |
20% |
54% |
20% |
| Strongly agree |
9% |
12% |
25% |
5% |
23% |
| Agree |
43% |
44% |
51% |
37% |
54% |
| Disagree |
27% |
29% |
17% |
42% |
17% |
| Strongly disagree |
10% |
8% |
3% |
12% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
10% |
7% |
4% |
5% |
3% |
When told that official figures show Australia’s economy is doing well, 56% agreed and 37% disagreed.
Those most likely to disagree were Liberal/National voters (54%), aged 55+ (45%) and people with incomes under $600pw (49%).
Reasons economy is poor
Q. What is the main reason you don’t think the state of the economy is good? *
|
28 May 12 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
|
| Poor economic management by Government |
27% |
40% |
17% |
52% |
| Increasing cost of living |
34% |
27% |
41% |
22% |
| Businesses are struggling |
13% |
11% |
7% |
13% |
| Increasing gap between rich and poor |
9% |
7% |
15% |
3% |
| Incomes aren’t increasing fast enough to keep up |
7% |
6% |
7% |
5% |
| Global financial problems |
7% |
5% |
7% |
4% |
| Other reason |
2% |
3% |
6% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
1% |
1% |
- |
- |
* Based on those who disagree that economy is good.
Those who disagreed that the economy was good said the main reasons were poor economic management by Government (40%) and the increasing cost of living (27%). Those who blame poor economic management by the Government has increased 13% and cost of living has decreased 7% since May last year.
62% of respondents aged 55+ blamed poor economic management by Government while the increasing cost of living was the major factor for 41% of respondents aged 25-44.
Reasons Government is unpopular
Q. Although Australia’s economy is doing very well, according to opinion polls the Government is very unpopular. What do you think is the main reason for this? *
|
28 May 12 |
Total 8 Apr 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Voters don’t trust the Prime Minister |
28% |
27% |
19% |
35% |
31% |
| The Labor Party is divided and can’t govern properly |
na |
19% |
15% |
23% |
23% |
| The economy is doing well for other reasons, like China and the mining boom, not because of the government |
15% |
13% |
9% |
19% |
11% |
| Voters would prefer Kevin Rudd as Prime Minister |
na |
9% |
14% |
4% |
7% |
| Voters aren’t benefitting from the strong economy. |
12% |
9% |
10% |
5% |
12% |
| The carbon tax has increased (will increase) the cost of living |
17% |
7% |
6% |
9% |
- |
| Some other reason |
8% |
12% |
21% |
3% |
12% |
| Don’t know |
3% |
5% |
7% |
2% |
5% |
* Based on those who agree the economy is good.
Respondents who thought the economy was doing well, thought the main reasons for the Government’s unpopularity were that voters don’t trust the Prime Minister (27%) and the Labor Party is divided and can’t govern properly (19%).
Both Liberal/National and Greens voters said trust in the Prime Minister was the key issue.
Since May last year, those blaming the impact of the carbon tax has declined from 17% to 7%.
Household financial situation
Q. How would you describe the current financial situation of your household?
|
28 May 12 |
Total 8 Apr 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total satisfactory |
43% |
56% |
57% |
58% |
57% |
| Total unsatisfactory |
28% |
26% |
28% |
22% |
29% |
| Very satisfactory |
7% |
8% |
8% |
8% |
6% |
| Satisfactory |
36% |
48% |
49% |
50% |
51% |
| Neither satisfactory nor unsatisfactory |
28% |
18% |
15% |
19% |
12% |
| Unsatisfactory |
18% |
20% |
22% |
17% |
21% |
| Very unsatisfactory |
10% |
6% |
6% |
5% |
8% |
| Don’t know |
1% |
1% |
1% |
* |
1% |
56% (up 13% since May last year) consider their current household financial situation to be satisfactory and 26% say it is unsatisfactory. 18% said it was neither.
Those most likely to be satisfied were those on incomes over $1,600pw (69%).
Those most likely to be dissatisfied were on incomes under $1,000pw (40%).
Major spending in last 12 months
Q. In the last 12 months have you -
|
28 May 12 |
Total 8 Apr 13 |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
Financial situation satisfactory |
Neither satisfactory nor un- |
Financial situation un- |
|
| Bought a house or other property |
10% |
10% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
13% |
7% |
5% |
| Bought a new car |
12% |
12% |
10% |
15% |
12% |
17% |
10% |
5% |
| Bought a used car |
17% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
14% |
11% |
13% |
| Renovated your current home |
17% |
16% |
17% |
16% |
18% |
22% |
13% |
6% |
| Purchased a major household item (stove, TV, Fridge, furniture etc.) |
39% |
40% |
42% |
41% |
49% |
47% |
36% |
30% |
| Taken an overseas holiday |
30% |
34% |
29% |
35% |
39% |
44% |
24% |
21% |
| Taken an Australian holiday |
45% |
46% |
41% |
49% |
52% |
56% |
39% |
28% |
| Paid private school fees |
12% |
11% |
9% |
15% |
6% |
11% |
14% |
12% |
| Bought shares |
13% |
12% |
10% |
14% |
16% |
17% |
8% |
3% |
The most common major spending items over the last 12 months were holidays in Australia (46%), purchase of major household item (40%) and overseas holidays (34%). Spending results were similar to those recorded last May.
Spending rate of those who consider their financial situation unsatisfactory was about half that of those who were satisfied for most items. Whereas taking an Australian holidays was the most common item of major spending for those satisfied (56%) and the neither group (39%), those who were dissatisfied were more likely to have purchased a major household item (30%).
Tax on superannuation
Q. Would you approve or disapprove of increasing the tax rates on superannuation contributions and earnings for people on very high incomes?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Income less than $600pw |
Income $600 |
Income $1,000 |
Income $1,600+ |
|
| Total approve |
55% |
73% |
38% |
83% |
56% |
63% |
61% |
52% |
| Total disapprove |
35% |
17% |
55% |
15% |
32% |
27% |
32% |
42% |
| Strongly approve |
23% |
37% |
11% |
40% |
28% |
27% |
27% |
18% |
| Approve |
32% |
36% |
27% |
43% |
28% |
36% |
34% |
34% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
11% |
28% |
13% |
18% |
16% |
20% |
21% |
| Strongly disapprove |
15% |
6% |
27% |
2% |
14% |
11% |
12% |
21% |
| Don’t know |
10% |
10% |
7% |
3% |
12% |
10% |
7% |
6% |
55% approve of increasing the tax rates on superannuation contributions and earnings for people on very high incomes and 35% disapprove.
There was majority approval across all income groups – although those on $1,600+ pw showed the highest level of disapproval (42%).
There were no significant differences across age groups.
Value of superannuation
Q. Which of the following statements is closest to your view?
|
Total |
Vote ALP |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
Men |
Women |
Aged 18-34 |
Aged 35-54 |
Aged 55+ |
|
| Contributing to superannuation is the best way to prepare for retirement |
51% |
53% |
49% |
63% |
53% |
49% |
46% |
48% |
62% |
| There are better ways to prepare for retirement such as investing and buying property |
34% |
34% |
37% |
24% |
35% |
33% |
38% |
37% |
23% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
13% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
18% |
16% |
15% |
15% |
51% agreed that contributing to superannuation is the best way to prepare for retirement and 34% agreed that there are better ways to prepare for retirement.
Highest support for contributing to super came from Greens voters (63%), aged 55+ (62%) and incomes $1,000-1,600 pw (59%).
Retirement income
Q. After you reach retirement age, what do you expect will be your main source of income?
|
Total |
Vote |
Vote Lib |
Vote Greens |
Men |
Women |
Aged 18 |
Aged 25 |
Aged 35 |
Aged 45 |
Aged 55 |
|
| The Government age pension |
27% |
32% |
24% |
29% |
25% |
29% |
9% |
16% |
27% |
36% |
42% |
| Your superannuation |
34% |
34% |
37% |
34% |
38% |
31% |
51% |
32% |
33% |
28% |
38% |
| Other investments |
20% |
15% |
24% |
18% |
21% |
18% |
20% |
30% |
20% |
16% |
8% |
| Other |
2% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
1% |
4% |
3% |
1% |
1% |
3% |
4% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
16% |
13% |
17% |
16% |
17% |
17% |
20% |
19% |
16% |
8% |
* Based on respondents aged under 65.
34% of those aged under 65 believe that superannuation will be their main source of income in retirement. 27% think they will depend more on the age pension and 20% on other investments.
Men were more likely than women to think super would be their main source of income (38%/31%).
46% of those earning less than $1,000 pw think they will rely more on the age pension while 42% of those earning $1,000+ pw think their super will be their main form of income.
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,818 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 4/3/13 |
2 weeks ago 18/2/13 |
Last week 25/3/13 |
This week 2/4/13 |
| Liberal |
|
46% |
45% |
45% |
47% |
| National |
|
3% |
2% |
2% |
2% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
47% |
47% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
32% |
35% |
33% |
31% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
10% |
9% |
11% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
54% |
54% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
46% |
46% |
44% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Attributes of the Labor Party
Q. Here is a list of things both favourable and unfavourable that have been said about various political parties. Which statements do you feel fit the Labor Party?
|
6 Jul 09 |
14 Mar 10
|
27 April 11
|
28 May 12 |
2 Apr 13 |
% change |
|
| Divided |
30% |
36% |
66% |
73% |
82% |
+9% |
| Will promise to do anything to win votes |
57% |
63% |
72% |
70% |
71% |
+1% |
| Out of touch with ordinary people |
44% |
48% |
61% |
58% |
63% |
+5% |
| Moderate |
65% |
63% |
51% |
50% |
47% |
-3% |
| Looks after the interests of working people |
|
|
39% |
47% |
42% |
-5% |
| Have a vision for the future |
|
|
43% |
41% |
42% |
+1% |
| Understands the problems facing Australia |
62% |
54% |
40% |
46% |
39% |
-7% |
| Too close to the big corporate and financial interests |
|
|
46% |
36% |
39% |
+3% |
| Extreme |
25% |
26% |
38% |
31% |
38% |
+7% |
| Clear about what they stand for |
|
|
28% |
31% |
27% |
-4% |
| Has a good team of leaders |
60% |
52% |
34% |
29% |
24% |
-5% |
| Keeps its promises |
44% |
33% |
20% |
22% |
19% |
-3% |
The Labor Party’s main attributes were – divided (82%), will promise anything to win votes (71%), out of touch with ordinary people (63%) and moderate (47%).
Main changes since last May were – divided (up 9% to 82%), understands the problems facing Australia (down 7% to 39%), extreme (up 7% to 38%), out of touch with ordinary people (up 5% to 63%), looks after the interests of working people (down 5% to 42%) and has a good team of leaders (down 5% to 24%).
Essential Report
Two Party Preferred: 20 May 2013
In this week's report:
3Q: Latest episodes
-
Essential Report with EMC’s Peter Lewis and Jackie Woods
Comments19 Sep 2012Lewis and Woods talk through this week’s polling numbers: voting intention, leader attributes, drug laws in Australia, and more…
-
Are we ready for the grey revolution?
Comments12 Sep 2012Ken Morrison says our cities need to be transformed for our ageing population – and it’s not solely about nursing homes.
-
Ships, trains and submarines — can we build them here?
Comments11 Sep 2012Tim Ayres wishes Clive Palmer and other mining giants would give local manufacturers a go instead of heading overseas.
-
Do we undervalue our public sector innovations?
Comments11 Sep 2012Nadine Flood questions whether governments take our science and other publicly funded breakthroughs for granted.
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