Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 24, 2015

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to? 

Sample size = 1,836 respondents 

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

27/1/15

2 weeks ago 10/2/15

Last week

17/2/15

This week 24/2/15

Liberal

 

36%

36%

36%

38%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Liberal/National

45.6%

39%

39%

39%

40%

Labor

33.4%

41%

41%

41%

41%

Greens

8.6%

9%

10%

10%

9%

Palmer United Party

5.5%

2%

3%

2%

2%

Other/Independent

6.9%

9%

8%

8%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

27/1/15

2 weeks ago 10/2/15

Last week

17/2/15

This week 24/2/15

Liberal National

53.5%

46%

46%

46%

47%

Labor

46.5%

54%

54%

54%

53%

NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2013 election.

Management of the economy

Feb 24, 2015

Q. How would you rate the government’s management of the Australian economy compared to how governments in other countries around the world have managed their economies? 

 

Total

 

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

May 2013

May 2014

Oct 2014

Total good

34%

20%

59%

26%

22%

39%

40%

39%

Total poor

30%

46%

9%

45%

39%

32%

31%

28%

Very good

7%

5%

14%

-

4%

11%

9%

11%

Good

27%

15%

45%

26%

18%

28%

31%

28%

Neither good nor poor

31%

30%

31%

27%

32%

24%

24%

28%

Poor

16%

24%

7%

25%

22%

17%

14%

15%

Very poor

14%

22%

2%

20%

17%

15%

17%

13%

Don’t know

5%

5%

1%

3%

7%

5%

5%

5%

34% of Australians rate the government’s management of the economy, compared to other countries around the world, as good.

30% rate their management of the economy as poor.

This represents a net decline from +11 to +4 since October.

Labor (20%), Greens (26%) and other (22%) voters were less likely to rate the government’s management of the economy as ‘good’. Liberal/National voters (59%) were more likely to rate the government’s management of the economy as ‘good’ – although this has dropped from 68% in October.

40% of those earning $1,600+ pw rate the government’s management ‘good’ and 44% of those earning less than $600 pw rate it ‘poor’.

Concern about economic issues

Feb 24, 2015

Q. How concerned are you personally about the following economic issues? 

 

Very concerned

Somewhat concerned

Not so concerned

Not at all concerned

Don’t know

 

Very concerned Oct 2014

Change

Cost of electricity and gas

47%

38%

12%

2%

2%

57%

-10

Housing affordability

39%

35%

18%

6%

2%

40%

-1

Cost of food and groceries

35%

43%

18%

3%

2%

45%

-10

Unemployment

30%

41%

22%

4%

2%

31%

-1

Wealth disparity

30%

35%

23%

7%

6%

33%

-3

Job security

29%

37%

22%

9%

3%

35%

-6

National debt

27%

39%

24%

7%

3%

21%

+6

The current budget deficit

27%

37%

25%

7%

5%

21%

+6

Cost of petrol

24%

40%

26%

7%

2%

49%

-25

Value of the Australian dollar

24%

39%

28%

7%

3%

22%

+2

Tax levels

24%

38%

29%

6%

3%

28%

-4

Interest rates

19%

32%

32%

14%

3%

25%

-6

Economic issues of most concern were cost of electricity/gas (47% very concerned), housing affordability (39%) and cost of food and groceries (35%).

Since October there have been substantial declines in concern about cost of petrol (down 25%), cost of electricity and gas (down 10%) and cost of food and groceries (down 10%).

Women were more concerned than men about cost of food and groceries (42% vs 29% very concerned), cost of electricity/gas (52% vs 41%) and housing affordability (43% vs 34%).

Job security

Feb 24, 2015

Q. In the next two years, do you expect your job to be more secure, less secure or about the same?

 

Total

 

Work full time

Work part time

Income less than $1,000 pw

Income $1,000-$1,600 pw

Income $1,600+ pw

 

Oct 2014

Total more secure

9%

16%

7%

13%

10%

9%

14%

Total less secure

29%

33%

30%

37%

26%

28%

31%

Much more secure

3%

3%

4%

3%

5%

3%

5%

Somewhat more secure

6%

5%

7%

10%

5%

6%

9%

About the same

58%

59%

55%

44%

59%

61%

50%

Somewhat less secure

17%

18%

15%

22%

14%

18%

17%

Much less secure

12%

11%

13%

15%

12%

10%

14%

Don’t know

4%

4%

5%

6%

4%

2%

4%

(Based on working people : n = 616)

9% (down 5%) of workers expect their job to be more secure in the next two years and 29% (down 2%) think it will be less secure – 58% (up 8%) think it will be about the same.

Those on lower incomes were more likely to think their job would be less secure.

Importance of international relationships

Feb 24, 2015

Q. How important is it for Australia to have a close relationship with the following nations?

 

Very import-ant

Quite import-ant

Not very import-ant

Don’t know

 

Very Import-ant

Mar 11

Very Import-ant

Nov 13

Very Import-ant

Jun 14

Very Import-ant

Oct 14

Change

United States

44%

40%

7%

8%

60%

59%

57%

53%

-9

China

41%

41%

8%

9%

48%

54%

46%

44%

-3

United Kingdom

38%

41%

12%

9%

56%

48%

48%

48%

-10

Japan

30%

50%

9%

11%

39%

35%

32%

31%

-1

Indonesia

22%

44%

23%

11%

31%

40%

35%

32%

-10

Canada

22%

43%

23%

12%

na

na

28%

26%

-4

India

20%

47%

21%

12%

26%

26%

23%

22%

-2

Germany

18%

43%

26%

13%

23%

20%

21%

22%

-4

Saudi Arabia

12%

39%

35%

14%

na

na

na

17%

-5

Russia

11%

33%

43%

13%

na

na

na

16%

-5

44% of respondents think it is very important to have a close relationship with the United States and 41% think it is very important to have a close relationship with China. Relations with Russia (11%) and Saudi Arabia (12%) were thought to be the least important.

A close relationship with the United States is considered very important by 50% of Liberal/National voters, 47% of Labor voters and 36% of Greens voters.

Since this question was asked in October, there has been a decrease in the rating of the importance of relations for all countries – especially United Kingdom and Indonesia (both down 10%).

Trust in the Government’s handling of international relations

Feb 24, 2015

Q. How much trust do you have in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations? 

 

 Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 2013

Jun 2014

Oct 2014

Total a lot/some

33%

13%

66%

12%

21%

41%

35%

40%

Total little/no trust

62%

84%

31%

85%

71%

53%

59%

53%

A lot of trust

12%

2%

28%

-

7%

20%

17%

17%

Some trust

21%

11%

38%

12%

14%

21%

18%

23%

A little trust

22%

23%

23%

19%

21%

18%

16%

18%

No trust

40%

61%

8%

66%

50%

35%

43%

35%

Don’t know

5%

2%

4%

2%

8%

7%

5%

6%

 

Overall, 33% (down 7% since October) have a lot or some trust in Tony Abbott and the Liberal Government to handle Australia’s international relations and 62% (up 9%) have a little or no trust. Only 12% (down 5%) have “a lot of trust” and 40% (up 5%) have no trust.

Labor (61%) and Greens (66%) voters were far more likely to have ‘no trust’. 28% Liberal/National voters have “a lot of trust”- down from 44% in October.

Relations with Indonesia

Feb 24, 2015

Q. How would you rate the performance of Tony Abbott and the Coalition Government in handling relations with Indonesia?

 

Total

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Vote other

 

Nov 2013

May 2014

Oct 2014

Total good

24%

9%

47%

9%

17%

29%

25%

32%

Total poor

42%

62%

16%

70%

42%

42%

43%

39%

Very good

8%

3%

16%

-

5%

11%

8%

12%

Good

16%

6%

31%

9%

12%

18%

17%

20%

Neither good nor poor

27%

24%

32%

15%

31%

21%

19%

22%

Poor

16%

21%

10%

19%

19%

16%

19%

18%

Very poor

26%

41%

6%

51%

23%

26%

24%

21%

Don’t know

7%

5%

5%

6%

10%

8%

13%

8%

 

24% (down 8% since October) of respondents rate Tony Abbott and the Coalition Government handling of relations with Indonesia as good. 42% (up 3%) rate them as poor. This represents a decline of 11 points from net -7 to net -18 (the same as recorded in May last year).

47% of Liberal/National voters rate the Government’s performance as “good”  – compared to 71% in October.

Attributes of Malcolm Turnbull

Feb 19, 2015

Q. Which of the following describe your opinion of the Minister for Communications (Opposition Leader), Malcolm Turnbull?

 

June 2009

 

Feb 2015

 

Difference

Intelligent

75%

74%

-1

Hard-working

68%

66%

-2

A capable leader

39%

60%

+21

Good in a crisis

32%

56%

+24

Understands the problems facing Australia

48%

55%

+7

Arrogant

69%

48%

-21

Out of touch with ordinary people

65%

48%

-17

Visionary

26%

44%

+18

Trustworthy

na

44%

na

Superficial

51%

41%

-10

More honest than most politicians

16%

40%

+24

Narrow-minded

51%

36%

-15

Aggressive

na

35%

na

Intolerant

na

31%

na

Erratic

na

24%

na

Demanding

62%

na

na

Down to earth

25%

na

na

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