Essential Report

Federal politics – voting intention

Feb 2, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

*1937 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 35%    
National 3%    
Total Lib/Nat 38% 44%
Labor 45% 56%
Greens 9%    
Family First 2%    
Other/Independent 6%    

 NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s polling data.   Comments »

Firmness of vote

Feb 2, 2010

Q. Would you say your choice is very firm, pretty firm but you might change your mind, or might you consider another party and leader as the campaign develops?

  Total Labor Coalition Green
Very firm 48% 54% 55% 31%
Pretty firm but I might change my mind 33% 33% 32% 43%
Might consider another party and leader closer to an election 17% 12% 12% 24%
Don’t know 2% 1% 1% 1%

 Just under half (48%) of those surveyed consider their voting choice as ‘very firm’, 33% consider their voting choice as ‘pretty firm but might change my mind’ and 17% ‘might consider another party and leader closer to an election’.

 Labor and Coalition voters were more likely to indicate their voting choice as ‘very firm’ (54% Labor, 55% Coalition), while Green voters were more likely to indicate their choice as ‘pretty firm, but I might change my mind’ (43%).

 People aged 55 years and over were more likely to consider their voting choice ‘very firm’ (60%), people aged 25 – 34 were more likely to indicate it as ‘pretty firm but I might change my mind’ (43%), while 18 – 24 year olds were more likely to indicate they ‘might consider another party and leader closer to an election’ (29%).   Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 25, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

* 1928 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 34%    
National 2%    
Total Lib/Nat 37% 44%
Labor 46% 56%
Greens 8%    
Family First 2%    
Other/Independent 7%    

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s polling data.   Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jan 18, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

*1915 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last report

21 Dec 09

Liberal 35%    
National 3%    
Total Lib/Nat 38% 44% +1%
Labor 45% 56% -1%
Greens 8%    
Family First 2%    
Other/Independent 7%    

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results. 

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s polling data collected on the weeks of the 15 – 20 December 2009 and the 12 – 18 January 2010.   Comments »

Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Dec 14, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1875 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 32%
National 3%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 42%
Labor 46% 58%
Greens 10%
Family First 2%
Other/Independent 7%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

Comments »

Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Dec 7, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1922 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 30%
National 4%
Total Lib/Nat 34% 42%
Labor 46% 58%
Greens 9%
Family First 3%
Other/Independent 8%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

Comments »

Liberal Leadership

Dec 7, 2009

Q. Does the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party make you more likely or less likely to vote Liberal?

Total Labor Coalition Greens
More likely 21% 12% 42% 5%
Less likely 33% 44% 15% 62%
Much more likely 9% 2% 24% 2%
A little more likely 12% 10% 18% 3%
A little less likely 10% 7% 12% 11%
Much less likely 23% 37% 3% 51%
Makes no difference 39% 42% 39% 32%
Don’t know 7% 2% 3% 1%

39% of people think the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party makes no difference to whether or not they will vote Liberal, 33% think it will make them less likely and 21% more likely to vote Liberal.

42% of Coalition voters think the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party will make them more likely to vote Liberal, 15% think that it will make them less likely and 39% think it will make no difference.  44% of Labor voters and 62% of Green voters think it will make them less likely to vote Liberal.

Females were more likely than males to indicate that the election of Tony Abbott as leader of the Liberal Party will make no difference to their vote (43% v 35%).

Comments »

Federal Politics – Voting Intention

Nov 30, 2009

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?

*1979 sample size

2 week average % 2PP 2PP shift from last week
Liberal 31%
National 4%
Total Lib/Nat 35% 42% -3%
Labor 47% 58% +3%
Greens 8%
Family First 3%
Other/Independent 7%

NB.  The data in the above table is derived from our weekly first preference voting question.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ as their first preference are not included in the results.

* Sample is the culmination of two week’s data.

Comments »

COVID-19 RESEARCH

Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.

Sign up for updates

Receive the Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.