Essential Report

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 9, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

 2,763 sample size

First preference/leaning to  6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 36% 37% 37% 39%
National 3% 3% 2% 2% 3%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 38% 39% 39% 42%
Labor 44% 41% 41% 40% 41%
Greens 10% 13% 13% 13% 10%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 3% 3%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 45% 45% 45% 46% 48%
Labor 55% 55% 55% 54% 52%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 2, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

2,418 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 36% 37% 37% 37%
National 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 39% 39% 39% 39%
Labor 45% 42% 41% 41% 40%
Greens 9% 11% 13% 13% 13%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 44% 46% 45% 45% 46%
Labor 56% 54% 55% 55% 54%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Reasons for Voting Preference

Aug 2, 2010

Q. What is the main reason you intend to vote for the Labor Party/Liberal or National Party/Greens?

  Labor   Liberal/ National   Greens
I always vote for the Labor Party 28% I always vote for the Liberal or National Party 19% I always vote for the Greens 8%
They have better policies 15% They have better policies 19% They have better policies 30%
They have been a good government 10% Labor have been a poor government 39% Labor have been a poor government 6%
I just don’t like the Liberals 11% I just don’t like Labor 9% I just don’t like the Liberals or Labor 28%
Julia Gillard is a better leader than Tony Abbott 32% Tony Abbott is a better leader than Julia Gillard 7% I like Bob Brown 3%
Other reason 4% Other reason 5% I don’t like Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard 14%
        Other reason 10%

Main reasons for voting Labor were a preference for Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott (32%) and party loyalty (28% said they always vote Labor). The leadership issue is more important for women – 40% of women said they were voting Labor because Julia Gillard is a better leader compared to 23% of men.

39% of Liberal/National voters say their main reason is that Labor have been a poor Government – and only 7% say leadership is their main reason.

Main reasons for voting for the Greens were “better policies” (30%) and a dislike of the major parties (28%). Only 6% say it is because Labor have been a poor Government. Comments »

The Senate

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Regardless of which party is elected to Government (i.e. has a majority in the House of Representatives), which of the following Senate options do you think would be best for Australia?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
The Government has a majority in the Senate 29% 41% 33% 5%
The Opposition party has a majority in the Senate 10% 3% 21% 2%
The Greens and the independents (like Xenophon and Fielding) together hold the balance of power in the Senate 27% 25% 27% 35%
The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate 12% 14% 3% 50%
Don’t know 22% 18% 16% 7%

 Opinions about the balance of power in the Senate are mixed. 29% prefer the Government to have a majority and 27% prefer the Greens and independents combined to hold the balance of power. Only 12% want the Greens on their own to hold the balance of power and 10% would prefer the opposition to have a majority. Overall, 39% want one of the major parties to have a majority and 39% want minor parties to hold the balance of power.

 85% of Greens voters want the Greens or Greens and independents to hold the balance of power compared to 39% of Labor voters and 30% of Liberal/National voters. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 26, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

1,747 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 34% 36% 36% 37% 37%
National 2% 3% 3% 2% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 37% 39% 38% 39% 39%
Labor 46% 42% 41% 41% 41%
Greens 8% 9% 13% 13% 13%
Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 7% 6% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 44% 46% 45% 45% 45%
Labor 56% 54% 55% 55% 55%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Interest in Federal Election

Jul 26, 2010

Q. How interested are you in this federal election?

Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other or indep. Don’t know/ refused vote
More than previous elections 17% 18% 23% 15% 16% 5%
About the same 66% 76% 68% 67% 52% 42%
Less than previous elections 11% 5% 9% 13% 32% 22%
Don’t know 5% 1% * 4% 31%

66% said that they had about the same interest in this election as previous elections – 17% had more interest and 11% less interest. Liberal voters were more interested (23% more) than Labor (18% more) and Greens voters (15% more).

Women (19%more/9% less) were somewhat more interested than men (16% more/13% less). Comments »

Voting Decision

Jul 26, 2010

Q. When do you think you will make your decision about which party to vote for?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other or indep. Don’t know/ refused vote
Already decided 51% 61% 65% 53% 32% 3%
Over the next few weeks during the campaign 23% 26% 22% 24% 23% 18%
At the end of the campaign before election day 9% 6% 8% 12% 17% 14%
On election day 10% 5% 4% 5% 26% 29%
Don’t know 7% 2% 1% 5% 3% 36%

 

  Total Aged

18-34

Aged

35-44

Aged

45-54

Aged 55+
Already decided 51% 38% 44% 53% 66%
Over the next few weeks during the campaign 23% 28% 25% 20% 18%
At the end of the campaign before election day 9% 8% 12% 11% 8%
On election day 10% 10% 13% 12% 6%
Don’t know 7% 16% 6% 3% 1%

51% of respondents said they had already decided which party to vote for and a further 32% said they would decide before election day – 10% will make their decision on election day. 61% of Labor voters and 65% of Liberal voters say they have already decided compared to 53% of Greens voters.

Younger voters are less likely to have decided which party to vote for – only 38% of under 35’s have already decided, 36% will decide before election day, 10% on election day and 16% do not know when they will decide. Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Jul 19, 2010

Q. If there was a Federal election held today, to which party would you probably give your first preference?  

Q. If you ‘don’t know’ on the above question, which party are you currently leaning to?  

1,875 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 37% 36% 36% 37%
National 3% 3% 3% 3% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 40% 39% 38% 39%
Labor 45% 38% 42% 41% 41%
Greens 8% 11% 11% 13% 13%
Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Other/Independent 7% 8% 6% 6% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 44% 48% 46% 45% 45%
Labor 56% 52% 54% 55% 55%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.  

Comments »

COVID-19 RESEARCH

Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.

Sign up for updates

Receive the Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.