21 May 12, 210512, Federal Election, federal politics voting intention, Independents, Labor Party, Liberal Party, The Greens
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,918 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 23/4/12 |
2 weeks ago 7/5/12 |
Last week 14/5/12 |
This week 21/5/12 |
| Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
47% |
46% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
49% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
31% |
29% |
30% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
11% |
11% |
10% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week |
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
58% |
57% |
56% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
42% |
43% |
44 |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. + or – 2%.
07 May 2012, 070512, GFC, global financial crisis, Labor Party, Liberal Party, party trust, Polling, polls
Q. If there was another Global Financial Crisis, which party would you trust most to deal with it?
|
15 Aug 11 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Labor Party |
31% |
25% |
68% |
2% |
42% |
| The Liberal Party |
40% |
42% |
5% |
83% |
5% |
| No difference |
20% |
23% |
19% |
11% |
39% |
| Don’t know |
9% |
10% |
8% |
4% |
14% |
If there was another GFC, 42% would trust the Liberal Party more to handle it and 25% would trust the Labor Party more. This represents a shift to the Liberal Party from net +9% to net +17%
The Liberal Party was rated higher than Labor with all demographic groups. Those most likely to trust the Liberal Party more were men (47%), aged 55+ (48%), full-time workers (50%) and income over $1,600 pw (50%).
23 April 2012, 230412, Joe Hockey, leadership, LIB, Liberal Party, malcolm turnbull, party leadership, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Which of the following do you think would make the best leader of the Liberal Party?
|
27 Sep 2010 |
28 Feb 2011 |
30 May 2011 |
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
24% |
22% |
23% |
11% |
39% |
3% |
| Malcolm Turnbull |
20% |
18% |
25% |
30% |
37% |
26% |
53% |
| Joe Hockey |
15% |
16% |
17% |
14% |
12% |
17% |
12% |
| Julie Bishop |
5% |
4% |
3% |
5% |
4% |
5% |
5% |
| Andrew Robb |
na |
1% |
1% |
1% |
2% |
1% |
– |
| Someone else |
na |
14% |
13% |
12% |
16% |
6% |
18% |
| Don’t know |
33% |
22% |
19% |
16% |
18% |
7% |
10 |
30% (+5%) think Malcolm Turnbull would make the best leader of the Liberal Party, 23% (+1%) prefer Tony Abbott and 14% (-3%) Joe Hockey.
Among Liberal/National voters, 39% (-1%) prefer Tony Abbott, 26% (+7%) Malcolm Turnbull and 17% (-5%) Joe Hockey.
Malcolm Turnbull is preferred by 33% of men and 28% of women, Tony Abbott by 26% of men and 19% of women.
10 April 2012, 100412, ALP, financial interests, handling the economy, Labor, Labor Party, LIB, Liberal, Liberal Party, party, party policy, policies, Policy, Polling, polls, working families
Q. Which party – Labor or Liberal – do you think is best when it comes to:
|
Labor |
Liberal |
No difference |
Don’t know |
Difference |
|
| Representing the interests of Australian working families |
37% |
25% |
29% |
9% |
+12 |
| Representing the interests of you and people like you |
29% |
35% |
26% |
10% |
-6 |
| Standing up for the middle class in Australia |
26% |
33% |
30% |
11% |
-7 |
| Representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests |
10% |
54% |
25% |
11% |
-44 |
| Being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests |
37% |
22% |
30% |
11% |
+15 |
| Handling the economy overall |
22% |
41% |
26% |
10% |
-19 |
| Handling the economy in a way that tries to take the interests of working families into consideration as much as it takes the interests of the large corporate and financial groups |
29% |
34% |
25% |
12% |
-5 |
| Handling the economy in a way that best helps small business |
22% |
40% |
25% |
13% |
-18 |
| Handling the economy in a way that best helps the middle class |
23% |
38% |
27% |
12% |
-15 |
| Handling the economy in a way that helps you and people like you the most. |
26% |
36% |
27% |
11% |
-10 |
Labor was considered best at representing the interests of Australian working families (37%) and being more concerned about the interests of working families in Australia than the rich and large business and financial interests (37%). The Liberals were considered best on all the other measures.
In particular, the Liberal Party was considered much better on representing the interests of the large corporate and financial interests (54%), handling the economy overall (41%) and handling the economy in a way that best helps small business (40%).
26 March 2012, 260312, Australian economy, economy, Finance, Labor Party, Liberal Party, money, Polling, polls
Q. Which party do you think would be best at handling the Australian economy in the interests of you and people like you?
|
|
4 Jul 11 |
26 Mar 12 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
| The Labor Party |
26% |
29% |
76% |
1% |
39% |
| The Liberal Party |
43% |
41% |
2% |
89% |
7% |
| No difference |
23% |
20% |
14% |
7% |
45% |
| Don’t know |
8% |
10% |
7% |
4% |
9% |
41% (down 2% since July last year) think the Liberal Party would be best at handling the Australian economy in their interests and 29% (up 3%) nominated the Labor Party. 20% think there is no difference.
There were significant differences by income – those earning under $600pw split 38% Labor/30% Liberal while those earning over $1,600pw favoured the Liberal Party 49% to 23% Labor.
13 February 2012, Approval of Tony Abbott, Approval rating, leadership, Liberal Party, Opposition leader, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
5 Jul
2010 |
20 Dec 2010 | 14 Mar
2011 |
14 June | 12 Sept | 17 Oct | 14 Nov | 12 Dec | 16 Jan 2012 | 13 Feb | |
| Total approve | 37% | 37% | 39% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 40% | 36% | 32% | 35% | 35% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 47% | 39% | 47% | 48% | 50% | 51% | 52% | 53% | 51% | 53% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 6% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 29% | 30% | 31% | 32% | 31% | 32% | 30% | 26% | 28% | 29% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 23% | 21% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 23% | 26% | 25% | 25% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 24% | 18% | 23% | 23% | 27% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 26% | 30% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 22% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 9% | 12% | 14% | 13% | 12% |
Tony Abbott’s approval rating has also changed little over the last month. 35% (no change) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 53% (up 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -16 to -18 over the last 4 weeks.
67% (down 1%) of Coalition voters approve and 21% (no change) disapprove.
By gender – men 40% approve/52% disapprove, women 31% approve/54% disapprove.
13 February 2012, ALP, Election, Julia Gillard, Labor Party, leadership, Liberal Party, Next Election, party leadership, tony abbott
Q. Do you think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party at the election due next year?
Q. Do you think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party at the election due next year?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | ||
| Julia Gillard | Yes | 31% | 54% | 19% | 43% |
| No | 47% | 22% | 70% | 26% | |
| Don’t know | 22% | 24% | 11% | 31% | |
| Tony Abbott | Yes | 47% | 37% | 67% | 34% |
| No | 25% | 37% | 12% | 31% | |
| Don’t know | 28% | 26% | 21% | 35% |
31% think Julia Gillard will still be the leader of the Labor Party at the election due next year and 47% think she will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 54% of Labor voters think she will still be the leader.
47% think Tony Abbott will still be the leader of the Liberal Party at the election due next year and 25% think he will not be the leader. Opinions are closely associated with party preference. 67% of Liberal/National voters think he will still be the leader.
Among non-major party voters, 36% think Julia Gillard will still be leading the Labor Party and 33% think Tony Abbott will still be leading the Liberal Party.
2012, 2012 Outlook, ALP, Labor Party, Liberal Party, LNP, political parties, Polling, polls, The Greens
Q. Do you think 2012 will be a good or bad year for each of the following political parties?
| Total good
Dec 10 |
Total bad
Dec10 |
Total good | Total bad | Very good | Good | Neither good nor bad | Bad | Very bad | Don’t know | |
| The Liberal Party | 35% | 18% | 36% | 24% | 8% | 28% | 28% | 17% | 7% | 12% |
| The Labor Party | 19% | 40% | 16% | 49% | 3% | 13% | 23% | 29% | 20% | 11% |
| The Greens | 22% | 29% | 17% | 37% | 2% | 15% | 32% | 20% | 17% | 13% |
Respondents expect that 2012 is likely to be a relatively good year for the Liberal Party (36% good/24% bad) and a bad year for the Labor Party (16%/49%) and the Greens (17%/37%).
Among their own voters, 67% expect the Liberals to have a good year, 38% expect Labor to have a good year and 67% expect the Greens to have a good year.
Compared to expectations 12 months ago, respondents were somewhat less positive about all political parties – The Liberal Party has dropped form net +17% to net +12%, the Labor Party from -21% to -33% and the Greens from -7% to -20%.
Comparing these results with last week’s questions about 2011, respondents expect the Liberal Party to have a better year (net +12% next year this year compared to net -3% this year), the Labor Party to have a similar year (-33% next year, -37% this year) and the Greens to have a much worse year (-20% next year, +4% this year).