Federal politics – voting intention

May 27, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,906 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

29/4/13

2 weeks ago

13/5/13

Last week

20/5/13

This week

27/5/13

Liberal

45%

44%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

35%

34%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

10%

9%

10%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

55%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

May 20, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,924 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

22/4/13

2 weeks ago

6/5/13

Last week

13/5/13

This week

20/5/13

Liberal

44%

44%

44%

45%

National

3%

4%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

34%

33%

34%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

10%

10%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

56%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

44%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Liberal Party and WorkChoices

May 20, 2013

Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?

 

31 May 10

12
July

21
Nov
11

23
Jul
12

3
Sept

18
Mar
13

 

Total 20 May

Vote
ALP

Vote
Lib

Vote Greens

Work full
time

Work part time

Total likely

58%

56%

51%

53%

51%

48%

51%

78%

28%

84%

50%

47%

Total unlikely

21%

24%

27%

22%

25%

28%

27%

9%

48%

7%

29%

25%

Very likely

28%

26%

22%

26%

23%

25%

26%

49%

5%

57%

25%

19%

Quite likely

30%

30%

29%

27%

28%

23%

25%

29%

23%

27%

25%

28%

Not very likely

18%

18%

19%

16%

18%

19%

16%

5%

29%

7%

18%

14%

Not at all likely

3%

6%

8%

6%

7%

9%

11%

4%

19%

11%

11%

Don’t know

20%

20%

22%

26%

24%

25%

23%

12%

24%

9%

22%

28%

Respondents were a little more likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in March. 51% (up 3%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 27% (down 1%) think it is unlikely.

78% (up 11%) of Labor voters and 84% (up 17%) of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters split 28% likely (down 3%) to 48% unlikely (up 4%).

Federal politics – voting intention

May 13, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,945 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

15/4/13

2 weeks ago

29/4/13

Last week

6/5/13

This week

13/5/13

Liberal

44%

45%

44%

44%

National

3%

3%

4%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

48%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

33%

34%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

10%

10%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

55%

56%

55%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

44%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 22, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,905 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

25/3/13

2 weeks ago

8/4/13

Last week

15/4/13

This week

22/4/13

Liberal

45%

47%

44%

44%

National

2%

2%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

49%

48%

48%

Labor

38.0%

33%

32%

34%

34%

Greens

11.8%

11%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

56%

55%

55%

Labor

50.1%

46%

44%

45%

45%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Apr 8, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,896 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

11/3/13

2 weeks ago

25/2/13

Last week

2/4/13

This week

8/4/13

Liberal

45%

45%

47%

47%

National

3%

2%

2%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

48%

47%

49%

49%

Labor

38.0%

34%

33%

31%

32%

Greens

11.8%

9%

11%

11%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

9%

9%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

55%

54%

56%

56%

Labor

50.1%

45%

46%

44%

44%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 25, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,797 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

25/2/13

2 weeks ago

11/2/13

Last week

18/3/13

This week

25/3/13

Liberal

46%

45%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

2%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

49%

48%

47%

47%

Labor

38.0%

34%

34%

35%

33%

Greens

11.8%

9%

9%

9%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

9%

8%

9%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

56%

55%

54%

54%

Labor

50.1%

44%

45%

46%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

Federal politics – voting intention

Mar 18, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,874 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

18/2/13

2 weeks ago

4/2/13

Last week

11/3/13

This week

18/3/13

Liberal

44%

46%

45%

45%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

47%

49%

48%

47%

Labor

38.0%

35%

32%

34%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

10%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

9%

8%

 

2PP

Election

21 Aug 10

4 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

 

This week

Total Lib/Nat

49.9%

54%

56%

55%

54%

Labor

50.1%

46%

44%

45%

46%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.

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