13 May 2013, 130513, 2PP, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,945 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 15/4/13 |
2 weeks ago 29/4/13 |
Last week 6/5/13 |
This week 13/5/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
45% |
44% |
44% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
4% |
3% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
48% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
33% |
34% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
55% |
55% |
56% |
55% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
44% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
13 May 2013, 130513, Approval of Julia Gillard
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
|
|
19 Jul 2010 |
20 Dec |
14 June 2011 |
12 Dec |
12 Jun 2012 |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 Apr |
13 May |
| Total approve |
52% |
43% |
34% |
34% |
32% |
37% |
41% |
36% |
36% |
34% |
38% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
40% |
54% |
54% |
56% |
53% |
49% |
55% |
56% |
56% |
54% |
| Strongly approve |
11% |
10% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
10% |
9% |
7% |
8% |
8% |
10% |
| Approve |
41% |
33% |
28% |
28% |
26% |
27% |
32% |
29% |
28% |
26% |
28% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
24% |
29% |
25% |
22% |
25% |
23% |
25% |
24% |
23% |
23% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
16% |
25% |
29% |
34% |
28% |
26% |
30% |
32% |
33% |
31% |
| Don’t know |
18% |
17% |
13% |
11% |
12% |
11% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
38% (up 4%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 54% (down 2%) disapprove – a 6-point change in net rating from -22 to -16 over the last 4 weeks.
78% of Labor voters approve (up 4%) and 16% disapprove (down 2%).
By gender – men 36% approve/57% disapprove, women 38% approve/51% disapprove. In net terms this represents no change with men and an improvement with women (from -25 to -13).
13 May 2013, 130513, Approval of Tony Abbott, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
|
18 Jan 2010 |
5 Jul
|
20 Dec |
14 June 2011 |
12 Dec |
12 Jun 2012 |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 Apr |
13 May |
|
| Total approve |
37% |
37% |
39% |
38% |
32% |
32% |
33% |
33% |
36% |
37% |
37% |
40% |
| Total disapprove |
37% |
47% |
39% |
48% |
53% |
54% |
56% |
57% |
53% |
51% |
52% |
50% |
| Strongly approve |
5% |
8% |
9% |
6% |
6% |
6% |
8% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
8% |
9% |
| Approve |
32% |
29% |
30% |
32% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
25% |
29% |
30% |
29% |
31% |
| Disapprove |
20% |
23% |
21% |
25% |
25% |
24% |
25% |
27% |
22% |
22% |
24% |
18% |
| Strongly disapprove |
17% |
24% |
18% |
23% |
28% |
30% |
31% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
28% |
32% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
16% |
22% |
15% |
14% |
13% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
12% |
10% |
11% |
40% (up 3%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 50% (down 2%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -15 to -10 over the last 4 weeks, Tony Abbott’s best rating since July 2011.
77% (up 5%) of Coalition voters approve and 13% (down 8%) disapprove.
By gender – men 42% approve/49% disapprove, women 37% approve/50% disapprove. In net terms this represents a shift with men from -9 to -7 and with women from -22 to -13.
13 May 2013, 130513, Better Prime Minister, Julia Gillard, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
|
5 Jul 2010 |
14 June 2011 |
12 Dec |
12 Jun 2012 |
10 Dec |
14 Jan 2013 |
11 Feb |
11 Mar |
15 Apr |
13 May |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Julia Gillard |
53% |
41% |
39% |
37% |
43% |
42% |
39% |
39% |
37% |
39% |
86% |
2% |
76% |
| Tony Abbott |
26% |
36% |
35% |
37% |
34% |
33% |
37% |
39% |
39% |
41% |
3% |
84% |
2% |
| Don’t know |
21% |
24% |
26% |
26% |
23% |
24% |
24% |
22% |
24% |
20% |
11% |
13% |
22% |
39% (up 2%) believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 41% (up 2%) prefer Tony Abbott.
Men prefer Tony Abbott 44%/35% and women prefer Julia Gillard 43%/38%.
13 May 2013, 130513, Disability Care, NDIS support
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s decision to implement the National Disability Insurance Scheme to be funded by increasing the Medicare levy from 1.5% to 2%?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total approve |
57% |
77% |
45% |
75% |
| Total disapprove |
30% |
14% |
42% |
18% |
| Strongly approve |
20% |
37% |
6% |
40% |
| Approve |
37% |
40% |
39% |
35% |
| Disapprove |
17% |
10% |
24% |
12% |
| Strongly disapprove |
13% |
4% |
18% |
6% |
| Don’t know |
13% |
9% |
12% |
7% |
57% approve and 30% disapprove the Government’s decision to implement the National Disability Insurance Scheme to be funded by increasing the Medicare levy from 1.5% to 2%.
A substantial majority of Labor (77%) and Greens voters (75%) approve but Liberal/National voters are split 45% approve/42% disapprove.
Respondents most likely to approve were aged 55+ (68% approve/22% disapprove) and those earning less than $600pw (72%/19%).
13 May 2013, 130513, house of representatives
Q. Thinking about the House of Representatives, which of the following do you think would provide the best Government for Australia?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The governing party has an absolute majority in the House of Representatives |
49% |
47% |
61% |
25% |
| The independents and minor parties hold the balance of power in the House of Representatives |
25% |
28% |
18% |
56% |
| Don’t know |
26% |
24% |
21% |
19% |
49% think that the best Government would be if the governing party has an absolute majority in the House of Representatives while 25% think the independents and minor parties should hold the balance of power.
A majority (56%) of Greens voters would prefer to see the independents and minor parties should hold the balance of power while a majority (61%) of Liberal/National voters think the governing party should have an absolute majority.
13 May 2013, 130513, balance of power for independents, best government, majority in the senate
Q. Now thinking about the Senate, which of the following do you think would provide the best Government for Australia?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| The Government also has a majority in the Senate |
32% |
36% |
39% |
18% |
| The Opposition has a majority in the Senate |
8% |
6% |
11% |
3% |
| The independents and minor parties hold the balance of power in the Senate |
25% |
31% |
15% |
54% |
| It doesn’t matter who has control or balance of power in the Senate |
7% |
4% |
8% |
3% |
| Don’t know |
28% |
23% |
27% |
23% |
32% think that the Government should also have a majority in the Senate while 25% think the independents and minor parties hold the balance of power. 8% think the Opposition should have a majority.
Liberal/National voters were a little more likely to favour the Government having a majority in the Senate (39%) while Greens (54%) and Labor (31%) were more likely to favour the independents and minor parties holding the balance of power.
13 May 2013, 130513, Andrew Wilkie, Bob Katter, Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor
Q. Regardless of how you vote in federal elections, how would you rate the performance of the following Independent MPs in federal parliament?
|
Total good |
Total bad |
Very Good |
Good |
Bad |
Very Bad |
Don’t know |
|
Oct 11 Total Good |
Oct 11 Total Bad |
|
| Rob Oakeshott |
30% |
30% |
6% |
24% |
14% |
16% |
41% |
|
23% |
34% |
| Tony Windsor |
29% |
29% |
7% |
22% |
14% |
15% |
42% |
|
23% |
32% |
| Andrew Wilkie |
28% |
30% |
4% |
24% |
17% |
13% |
42% |
|
24% |
34% |
| Bob Katter |
26% |
41% |
4% |
22% |
19% |
22% |
34% |
|
27% |
36% |
There were mixed opinions about the performance of the independents in Parliament. Respondents were similarly split over the performances of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie but somewhat more negative about Bob Katter.
In NSW, Rob Oakeshott was rated 30% good/37% bad and Tony Windsor 29% good/36% bad. In Queensland Bob Katter was rated 33% good/36% bad.
Since this question was last asked in October 2011, the ratings of Rob Oakeshott, Tony Windsor and Andrew Wilkie have improved a little while Bob Katter’s has declined.