Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,797 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 25/2/13 |
2 weeks ago 11/2/13 |
Last week 18/3/13 |
This week 25/3/13 |
| Liberal |
46% |
45% |
45% |
45% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
2% |
2% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
34% |
34% |
35% |
33% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
11% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
9% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
56% |
55% |
54% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
44% |
45% |
46% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Firmness of vote
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held in September this year?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
43% |
40% |
57% |
18% |
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
31% |
34% |
29% |
31% |
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
19% |
16% |
11% |
41% |
| Don’t know |
7% |
9% |
4% |
10% |
74% of Labor voters will definitely not or are very unlikely to change their vote compared to 86% of Liberal/National voters but only 49% of Greens voters.
25% of aged 18-34, 20% of aged 35-54 and 11% of aged 55+ say they may change their mind.
Main reason for voting Labor
Q. Which of the following is the main reason you would vote for the Labor Party if there was an election today?
| I always vote for the Labor Party |
28% |
| The Labor Party has been a good Government |
11% |
| The Liberal Party would not be a good Government |
4% |
| I don’t want Tony Abbott to be Prime Minister |
35% |
| The Labor Party have better policies than the Liberal Party |
10% |
| I would be personally better off under a Labor Government |
8% |
| Other reason |
2% |
| Don’t know |
2% |
More than one third said the main reason they would be voting Labor was they don’t want Tony Abbott as Prime Minister.
28% said they always vote Labor and 11% said the Labor Party had been a good Government.
Main reason for voting Liberal/National
Q. Which of the following is the main reason you would vote for the Liberal or National Party if there was an election today?
| I always vote for the Liberal or National Party |
21% |
| The Labor Party has been a poor Government |
34% |
| The Liberal and National Parties would be a good Government |
12% |
| I don’t want Julia Gillard as Prime Minister |
17% |
| The Liberal/National Parties have better policies than the Labor Party |
9% |
| I would be personally better off under a Liberal/National Government |
6% |
| Other reason |
1% |
| Don’t know |
* |
One third say they would vote Liberal/National because the Labor Party has been a poor Government. 21% say they always vote Liberal/National and 17% don’t want Julia Gillard as Prime Minister.
40% of men and 27% of women say the Labor Party has been a poor Government.
Media regulation
Q. Thinking about the media in Australia, do you think there needs to be more or less regulation of the media or is the present level of regulation about right?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Needs to be more regulation |
29% |
38% |
22% |
40% |
| Needs to be less regulation |
10% |
9% |
11% |
9% |
| Present regulation about right |
43% |
36% |
55% |
35% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
18% |
12% |
16% |
29% think the media in Australia needs more regulation, 10% think it needs less regulation and 43% think the present regulation is about right.
38% of Labor voters and 40% of Greens voters think it needs more regulation.
Read or heard about media regulation proposal
Q. The Federal Government has proposed new legislation to regulate the media – including appointing an advocate to oversee the current self-regulatory bodies such as the Press Council and with the power to prevent media mergers not considered to be in the public interest. How much have you read or heard about the Government’s plans to introduce new regulation of the media?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| A lot |
12% |
12% |
14% |
8% |
| Some |
22% |
22% |
26% |
22% |
| A little |
31% |
29% |
31% |
42% |
| Nothing |
29% |
30% |
24% |
28% |
| Don’t know |
6% |
7% |
5% |
1% |
60% said they had heard little or nothing about the Federal Government’s proposed legislation to regulate the media. Only 12% said they had read or heard a lot and 22% said they had read/heard some.
Those most likely to have read/heard a lot/some were men (45%), Liberal/National voters (40%) and aged 55+ (50%).
Media reporting of proposed media regulation
Q. Do you think the media reporting and commentary on this issue has been good or poor?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total good |
31% |
23% |
39% |
24% |
| Total poor |
25% |
34% |
19% |
33% |
| Very good |
8% |
9% |
10% |
1% |
| Good |
23% |
14% |
29% |
23% |
| Neither good nor poor |
39% |
42% |
37% |
38% |
| Poor |
17% |
19% |
17% |
18% |
| Very poor |
8% |
15% |
2% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
4% |
2% |
4% |
5% |
31% of those who had read/heard about the proposed legislation think the media reporting and commentary has been good and 25% think it has been poor.
Those most likely to think it has been poor were Labor voters (34%) and Greens voters (33%).
Support for proposed media regulation
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s plans to reform regulation of the media?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
29% |
49% |
18% |
29% |
| Total oppose |
34% |
18% |
50% |
30% |
| Strongly support |
7% |
13% |
2% |
11% |
| Support |
22% |
36% |
16% |
18% |
| Oppose |
23% |
16% |
31% |
25% |
| Strongly oppose |
11% |
2% |
19% |
5% |
| Don’t know |
36% |
33% |
32% |
40% |
29% support the Government’s proposed media regulation and 34% oppose. 36% have no opinion. Labor voters tend to support the legislation (49% to 18%) and Liberal/National voters tend to oppose by a similar margin (18% to 50%). 51% of those aged 55+ oppose the legislation.
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