Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,874 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 18/2/13 |
2 weeks ago 4/2/13 |
Last week 11/3/13 |
This week 18/3/13 |
| Liberal |
|
44% |
46% |
45% |
45% |
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
47% |
| Labor |
38.0% |
35% |
32% |
34% |
35% |
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
10% |
9% |
9% |
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
9% |
8% |
| 2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
| Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
55% |
54% |
| Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
45% |
46% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
Liberal Party and WorkChoices
Q. If they won the next election, how likely do you think it would be that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices?
|
31 |
12 |
21 |
23 |
3 |
Total |
Vote |
Vote |
Vote Greens |
Work full |
Work part time |
|
| Total likely |
58% |
56% |
51% |
53% |
51% |
48% |
67% |
31% |
67% |
48% |
49% |
| Total unlikely |
21% |
24% |
27% |
22% |
25% |
28% |
17% |
44% |
10% |
31% |
20% |
| Very likely |
28% |
26% |
22% |
26% |
23% |
25% |
45% |
7% |
42% |
27% |
22% |
| Quite likely |
30% |
30% |
29% |
27% |
28% |
23% |
22% |
24% |
25% |
21% |
27% |
| Not very likely |
18% |
18% |
19% |
16% |
18% |
19% |
12% |
31% |
8% |
22% |
12% |
| Not at all likely |
3% |
6% |
8% |
6% |
7% |
9% |
5% |
13% |
2% |
9% |
8% |
| Don’t know |
20% |
20% |
22% |
26% |
24% |
25% |
15% |
26% |
23% |
21% |
31% |
Respondents were a little less likely to think that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices than when a similar question was asked in September. 48% (down 3%) think it is likely that Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party would try to bring back industrial laws similar to WorkChoices if they won the next election and 28% (up 3%) think it is unlikely.
67% (down 7%) of Labor voters and 67% (down 1%) of Greens voters think it is likely, while Liberal/National voters are split 31% likely (down 2%) to 44% unlikely (up 1%).
Concern about Liberals bringing back WorkChoices
Q. If the Liberals won the election and reintroduced WorkChoices or similar laws, how concerned would you be?
|
31 |
12 |
21 |
23 |
3 |
Total 18 |
Vote |
Vote |
Vote Greens |
Work full |
Work part time |
|
| Very concerned |
28% |
29% |
26% |
30% |
27% |
27% |
48% |
6% |
48% |
30% |
29% |
| Quite concerned |
17% |
19% |
15% |
16% |
15% |
16% |
24% |
10% |
25% |
17% |
23% |
| A little concerned |
20% |
16% |
20% |
15% |
19% |
17% |
14% |
21% |
8% |
17% |
17% |
| Not concerned |
24% |
25% |
27% |
26% |
26% |
25% |
4% |
50% |
3% |
23% |
15% |
| Don’t know |
11% |
11% |
11% |
14% |
13% |
15% |
10% |
12% |
16% |
13% |
17% |
Concern about the re-introduction of WorkChoices has not changed significantly since this question was last asked in September. 43% (up 1%) would be quite or very concerned if WorkChoices or similar laws were re-introduced and 42% (down 3%) were only a little or not concerned.
72% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters would be concerned. 71% of Liberal/National voters would be a little/not concerned and 16% concerned. 47% of full-time workers and 52% of part-time workers said they would be very/quite concerned.
52% of those aged 45-54 said they would be very/quite concerned.
Support for major Government decisions
Q. Do you support or oppose the following Government decisions?
|
26 Nov 12 |
18 Mar 13 |
|
|
|
|
|
|||
|
Total Support |
Total Oppose |
Total Support |
Total Oppose |
Strongly support |
Support |
Oppose |
Strongly oppose |
Don’t know |
|
| NBN (National Broadband Network) – high speed broadband access across Australia |
69% |
20% |
73% |
19% |
35% |
38% |
10% |
9% |
8% |
| The Minerals Resource Rent Tax (MRRT) – a tax on large profits of mining companies |
63% |
22% |
57% |
29% |
24% |
33% |
15% |
14% |
14% |
| The carbon pricing scheme – a tax on industries based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit |
46% |
44% |
44% |
46% |
17% |
27% |
20% |
26% |
10% |
The decision which has the most support amongst respondents is the NBN, with 73% in favour and only 19% opposed – an increase in support since this question was last asked in November (from net +49 to net +54).
There is majority support from respondents for the MRRT, with 57% in favour of the tax and 29% opposed. However, this represents a significant drop in support since November – from net +41 to net +28.
Support for the carbon pricing scheme has declined a little since the last time the question was polled in November. Support has decreased from 46% to 44% and opposition increased from 44% to 46% – a change from net +2 to net -2.
Support for reducing workers on 457 visas
Q. Would you support or oppose Government legislation to reduce the number of overseas workers being brought to Australia under short-term 457 visas?
|
Total |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
| Total support |
58% |
64% |
58% |
49% |
| Total oppose |
24% |
23% |
28% |
28% |
| Strongly support |
29% |
38% |
26% |
17% |
| Support |
29% |
26% |
32% |
32% |
| Oppose |
15% |
17% |
15% |
15% |
| Strongly oppose |
9% |
6% |
13% |
13% |
| Don’t know |
17% |
14% |
13% |
23% |
58% said they would support Government legislation to reduce the number of overseas workers being brought to Australia under short-term 457 visas and 24% would oppose. There was majority support from both Labor (64%) and Liberal/National voters (58%).
58% of full-time workers and 57% of part-time workers supported this legislation. Strongest support came from those aged 45-64 (67%).
Trust in institutions
Q. How much trust do you have in the following institutions and organisations?
|
Total |
Total |
Total trust |
Total trust |
A lot of trust |
Some trust |
A little trust |
No trust |
Don’t know |
% change |
|
| The High Court |
72% |
60% |
63% |
74% |
34% |
40% |
13% |
6% |
8% |
+11 |
| The ABC |
46% |
54% |
59% |
70% |
22% |
48% |
17% |
6% |
7% |
+11 |
| The Reserve Bank |
67% |
49% |
53% |
64% |
21% |
43% |
21% |
8% |
7% |
+11 |
| Charitable organisations |
61% |
50% |
53% |
52% |
9% |
43% |
33% |
9% |
6% |
-1 |
| Environment groups |
45% |
32% |
36% |
41% |
6% |
35% |
33% |
20% |
7% |
+5 |
| The Commonwealth Public Service |
49%* |
30% |
33% |
36% |
4% |
32% |
37% |
17% |
9% |
+3 |
| Federal Parliament |
55% |
22% |
26% |
34% |
4% |
30% |
31% |
29% |
6% |
+8 |
| Your local council |
na |
na |
32% |
34% |
3% |
31% |
39% |
22% |
6% |
+2 |
| TV news media |
na |
21% |
26% |
30% |
4% |
26% |
46% |
20% |
4% |
+4 |
| State Parliament |
na |
na |
25% |
30% |
4% |
26% |
32% |
31% |
6% |
+5 |
| Newspapers |
na |
26% |
31% |
30% |
3% |
27% |
43% |
22% |
5% |
-1 |
| Religious organisations |
29% |
27% |
31% |
27% |
5% |
22% |
29% |
37% |
7% |
-4 |
| Online news media |
na |
23% |
28% |
27% |
3% |
24% |
48% |
20% |
6% |
-1 |
| Business groups |
38% |
22% |
25% |
26% |
3% |
23% |
42% |
23% |
9% |
+1 |
| Trade unions |
39% |
22% |
23% |
25% |
4% |
21% |
31% |
36% |
7% |
+2 |
| Political parties |
na |
12% |
16% |
12% |
1% |
11% |
36% |
45% |
6% |
-4 |
Note: ‘Total Trust’ is an aggregate figure achieved by adding ‘A lot of trust’ and ‘Some trust’. * This Commonwealth Public Service figure is from a question asked in 6 Feb 12.
Since this question was last asked in October, there has been a significant increase in trust in the High Court (+11%), the ABC (+11%), the Reserve Bank (+11%) and the Federal Parliament (+8). Trust in the High Court and Reserve Bank is back to similar levels to that recorded in 2011.
Respondents had most trust in the High Court (74%), the ABC (70%), the Reserve Bank (64%) and charitable organisations (52%). They had least trust in political parties (12%), trade unions (25%), business groups (26%), online news media (27%) and religious organisations (27%).
Compared to the average, Labor voters had more trust in the ABC (77%), environment groups (50%), the Commonwealth Public Service (44%), local councils (42%), Federal Parliament (43%) and trade unions (41%).
Liberal/National voters, compared to the average, had a little more trust in religious organisations (31%) and TV news media (35%).
Party values
Q. Which statement best reflects your views about the Labor Party?
Q. Which statement best reflects your views about the Liberal Party?
Q. Which statement best reflects your views about the Greens?
|
Labor Party |
Liberal Party |
Greens |
Labor voters on Labor Party |
Lib/Nat voters on Liberal Party |
Greens voters on Greens |
|
| The party doesn’t stand for anything |
23% |
22% |
30% |
3% |
4% |
– |
| Many of their politicians don’t stand by party values |
43% |
27% |
14% |
37% |
23% |
10% |
| The party has values and politicians stand by them |
19% |
36% |
33% |
44% |
63% |
85% |
| Don’t know |
15% |
15% |
22% |
16% |
10% |
5% |
43% think that many Labor politicians don’t stand by party values – compared to 27% for the Liberal Party and 14% for the Greens.
36% think the Liberal Party has values and their politicians stand by them – compared to 33% for the Greens and 19% for the Labor Party.
63% of Liberal/National voters think the Liberal Party has values and politicians stand by them and 85% of Greens voters think the Greens have values and politicians stand by them. However, Labor voters were more divided with 44% thinking party has values and politicians stand by them and 37% thinking many of their politicians don’t stand by party values.
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