22 April 2013, 220413, 2PP, ALP, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,905 respondents
First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago 25/3/13 |
2 weeks ago 8/4/13 |
Last week 15/4/13 |
This week 22/4/13 |
Liberal |
|
45% |
47% |
44% |
44% |
National |
|
2% |
2% |
3% |
3% |
Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
47% |
49% |
48% |
48% |
Labor |
38.0% |
33% |
32% |
34% |
34% |
Greens |
11.8% |
11% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
9% |
2PP |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago |
2 weeks ago |
Last week
|
This week |
Total Lib/Nat |
49.9% |
54% |
56% |
55% |
55% |
Labor |
50.1% |
46% |
44% |
45% |
45% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election. These estimates have a confidence interval of approx. plus or minus 2-3%.
22 April 2013, 220413, war in Iraq
Q. It is now 10 years since Australia went to war in Iraq. Do you think it was the right or wrong decision for Australia to go to war against Iraq?
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
Right decision |
23% |
22% |
30% |
7% |
Wrong decision |
51% |
56% |
42% |
76% |
Don’t know |
26% |
21% |
28% |
18% |
51% believe Australia made the wrong decision to go to war in Iraq and 23% think it was the right decision.
Those most likely to say it was the wrong decision were Greens voters (76%), Labor voters (56%) and people aged 45-64 (56%).
30% of Liberal/National voters and 30% of men thought it was the right decision.
22 April 2013, 220413, john howard, reason for war in Iraq
Q. What do you think was the main reason John Howard’ s Government joined the war in Iraq?
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
They believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction |
18% |
15% |
26% |
5% |
To ensure access to Iraq’s oil |
9% |
12% |
6% |
8% |
To support the USA |
56% |
62% |
49% |
76% |
To remove Saddam Hussein |
7% |
6% |
8% |
2% |
Don’t know |
10% |
5% |
11% |
8% |
A majority (56%) thought that the main reason Australia joined the war in Iraq was to support the USA. Only 18% thought the main reason was that they believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction.
Those most likely to think that the main reason was they believed Iraq had weapons of mass destruction were Liberal/National voters (26%) and people aged 65+ (30%).
22 April 2013, 220413, john howard, Saddam Hussein, war in Iraq, weapons of mass destruction, WMD
Q. John Howard has said that regardless of whether Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction or not, the decision was right because it was in Australia’s national interests, and the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime provided the Iraqi people with opportunities for freedom. Do you agree or disagree?
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
Total agree |
44% |
35% |
58% |
16% |
Total disagree |
37% |
50% |
23% |
58% |
Strongly agree |
10% |
7% |
15% |
1% |
Agree |
34% |
28% |
43% |
15% |
Disagree |
20% |
24% |
15% |
21% |
Strongly Disagree |
17% |
26% |
8% |
37% |
Don’t know |
19% |
15% |
19% |
26% |
44% agreed and 37% disagreed with John Howard’s argument that regardless of whether Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction or not, the decision was right because it was in Australia’s national interests, and the removal of Saddam Hussein’s regime provided the Iraqi people with opportunities for freedom.
58% of Liberal/National voters agreed while 58% of Greens voters and 50% of Labor voters disagreed.
22 April 2013, 220413, same sex marriage
Q. Do you think people of the same sex should or should not be allowed to marry?
15 Nov 10 |
14 Mar 11 |
4 Jul 11 |
13 Aug 12 |
24 Sep 12 |
Total 22 Apr 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
Should be allowed to marry |
53% |
49% |
54% |
54% |
55% |
54% |
64% |
42% |
89% |
Should not be allowed to marry |
36% |
40% |
35% |
33% |
36% |
33% |
26% |
44% |
3% |
Don’t know |
11% |
10% |
11% |
13% |
9% |
13% |
10% |
13% |
8% |
There has been little movement in the figures since the last time the question was polled last September: with a 1% decrease in those in favour of same sex marriage (54%) and a 3% decrease in those opposed (33%).
There has been little movement in the results in the two years since the question was first polled in November 2010.
Those most in favour of same sex marriage were Greens voters (89%), Labor voters (64%) and women (62%). 44% of Liberal/National voters, 40% of men and 50% of people aged 65+ opposed.
22 April 2013, 220413, Gonski report, school funding, support for gonski
Q. The Gonski report on funding education has recommended a new model for school funding that would mean all students are entitled to a set level of funding regardless of where they go to school, disadvantaged schools receive more funding and taxpayer funding for private schools is adjusted down based on parents’ capacity to pay.
Do you support or oppose these recommendations?
27 Feb 12 |
30 Jul 12 |
Total 22 Apr 13 |
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
Total support |
68% |
65% |
62% |
77% |
49% |
76% |
Total oppose |
13% |
14% |
18% |
6% |
31% |
5% |
Strongly support |
25% |
25% |
25% |
42% |
12% |
41% |
Support |
43% |
40% |
37% |
35% |
37% |
35% |
Oppose |
9% |
10% |
11% |
4% |
18% |
4% |
Strongly oppose |
4% |
4% |
7% |
2% |
13% |
1% |
Don’t know |
19% |
20% |
20% |
16% |
20% |
19% |
62% say they support the recommendations of the Gonski report on funding education and 18% were opposed. Support has weakened very slightly (-3%) since this question was asked last July.
Strongest support was shown by Labor voters (77%) and Greens voters (76%).
Since last July, support from Liberal/National voters has dropped from 59% to 49% and opposition increased from 20% to 31%.
22 April 2013, 220413, education funding, Gonski
Q. The Government has announced a plan to implement the Gonski recommendations by providing substantially increased funding for public schools, some increased funding for private schools and some reduction in funding for universities. Do you approve or disapprove of the Government’s plan?
Total
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
|
Total approve |
40% |
60% |
28% |
42% |
Total disapprove |
43% |
25% |
59% |
42% |
Strongly approve |
12% |
23% |
5% |
14% |
Approve |
28% |
37% |
23% |
28% |
Disapprove |
25% |
15% |
33% |
30% |
Strongly disapprove |
18% |
10% |
26% |
12% |
Don’t know |
17% |
16% |
13% |
15% |
40% approved the Government’s plan for implementing the Gonski recommendations and 43% disapproved. 60% of Labor voters approved and 59% of Liberal/National voters disapproved. Greens voters were split.
By income, for those earning $600-$1,600pw, 47% approve and 37% disapprove while for those earning over $1,600 pw, 36% approve and 50% disapprove.
22 April 2013, 220413, defence, Government spending, manufacturing industry, pensions, private schools, public schools, roads, transport, universities, welfare
Q. If the Liberal Party won Government at the next election, do you think they would increase or decrease spending on the following areas or spend about the same as the Labor Government?
Increase spending |
Decrease spending |
Spend about the same |
Don’t know |
|
Public schools |
22% |
30% |
33% |
15% |
Private schools |
28% |
27% |
28% |
16% |
Universities |
18% |
29% |
36% |
16% |
Support for manufacturing industries |
26% |
23% |
32% |
19% |
Pensions |
19% |
32% |
36% |
14% |
Welfare support |
12% |
45% |
28% |
14% |
Health and hospitals |
33% |
27% |
25% |
14% |
The environment |
11% |
39% |
34% |
16% |
Defence |
31% |
19% |
34% |
16% |
Foreign aid |
8% |
41% |
33% |
18% |
Public transport |
23% |
26% |
35% |
16% |
Roads |
26% |
22% |
36% |
16% |
Border security |
44% |
14% |
28% |
14% |
The arts |
7% |
40% |
32% |
21% |
Subsidies for business |
34% |
20% |
28% |
18% |
Overall, respondents were more likely to think a Liberal Government would reduce spending on welfare support, the arts, the environment, foreign aid, pensions, public schools and universities. They were more likely to think they would increase spending on border security, defence and subsidies for business.
Liberal voters thought a Liberal Government would be more likely to increase than decrease spending on public schools, manufacturing industries, pensions, public transport, health and hospitals, defence, roads, border security and subsidies for business.