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  • Jul, 2011

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    Federal politics – voting intention

    Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

    Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

    sample size = 1,899

    First preference/leaning to Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Liberal 44% 45% 46% 47%
    National 3% 3% 3% 3%
    Total Lib/Nat 43.6 46% 48% 49% 50%
    Labor 38.0 34% 32% 32% 30%
    Greens 11.8 12% 11% 11% 11%
    Other/Independent 6.6 8% 9% 9% 9%
    2PP Election

    21 Aug 10

    4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week
    Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 54% 55% 56% 57%
    Labor 50.1% 46% 45% 44% 43%

    NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Approval of Julia Gillard

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

    Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
    31 May

    2010

    19 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July
    Total approve 41% 52% 45% 43% 51% 48% 41% 37% 41% 34% 29%
    Total disapprove 47% 30% 37% 40% 36% 41% 46% 50% 48% 54% 62%
    Strongly approve 7% 11% 12% 10% 8% 9% 7% 7% 7% 6% 5%
    Approve 34% 41% 33% 33% 43% 39% 34% 30% 34% 28% 24%
    Disapprove 25% 17% 21% 24% 24% 25% 22% 25% 26% 29% 30%
    Strongly disapprove 22% 13% 16% 16% 12% 16% 24% 25% 22% 25% 32%
    Don’t know 12% 18% 19% 17% 14% 11% 13% 13% 11% 13% 9%

    29% (down 5%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 62% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -20 to -33 over the last 4 weeks.

    72% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).

    By gender – men 31% approve/63% disapprove, women 28% approve/61% disapprove.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Approval of Tony Abbott

    Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

    18 Jan

    2010

    29 Mar 5 Jul 20 Sep 20 Dec 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July
    Total approve 37% 33% 37% 43% 39% 42% 38% 38% 36% 42% 38% 39%
    Total disapprove 37% 50% 47% 37% 39% 37% 46% 47% 48% 44% 48% 49%
    Strongly approve 5% 8% 8% 12% 9% 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 6% 6%
    Approve 32% 25% 29% 31% 30% 35% 30% 31% 29% 34% 32% 33%
    Disapprove 20% 28% 23% 21% 21% 22% 24% 24% 25% 25% 25% 24%
    Strongly disapprove 17% 22% 24% 16% 18% 15% 22% 23% 23% 19% 23% 25%
    Don’t know 26% 16% 16% 19% 22% 20% 16% 16% 17% 14% 15% 11%

    39% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (up 1%) disapprove – no change in net rating (-10%) over the last 4 weeks.

    73% of Coalition voters approve and 19% disapprove.

    By gender – men 44% approve/48% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Better Prime Minister

    Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

    5 Jul 2010 17 Jan 2011 14 Feb 14 Mar 11 Apr 9 May 14 June 11 July Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

    21 Jun 10

    Julia Gillard 53% 47% 48% 44% 42% 43% 41% 37% 85% 6% 68% 47%
    Tony Abbott 26% 32% 31% 33% 33% 35% 36% 39% 5% 75% 9% 30%
    Don’t know 21% 21% 20% 23% 24% 22% 24% 24% 10% 19% 24% 23%

    37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).

    Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Support for Carbon Pricing

    Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s proposal to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?

    7 March 14 March 28 March 18 April 23 May 30 May 14 June 11 July Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Total support 35% 38% 34% 39% 41% 38% 38% 35% 65% 15% 73%
    Total oppose 48% 49% 51% 49% 44% 48% 49% 53% 20% 79% 21%
    Strongly support 9% 12% 12% 13% 14% 14% 13% 11% 23% 3% 35%
    Support 26% 26% 22% 26% 27% 24% 25% 24% 42% 12% 38%
    Oppose 19% 17% 19% 15% 15% 19% 19% 19% 15% 23% 16%
    Strongly oppose 29% 32% 32% 34% 29% 29% 30% 34% 5% 56% 5%
    Don’t know 18% 13% 15% 12% 15% 15% 13% 12% 16% 7% 7%

    35% (down 3%) support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 53% (up 4%) oppose. It is supported by 65% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters but opposed by 79% of coalition voters.

    By age, those aged under 35 split 40% support/43% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 33% support/59% oppose.

    • note that these result reflect opinions prior to the announcement of the details of carbon pricing.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Preferred Voting System

    Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.

    • A preferential voting system where voters rank all candidates in order of preference.
    • An optional preferential system where voters can rank one, some, or all candidates in order of preference.
    • A “first past the post” system, where voters only vote for one candidate and the candidate with the most votes wins.
    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Preferential 22% 31% 18% 30%
    Optional preferential 26% 26% 24% 33%
    First past the post 44% 40% 53% 31%
    Don’t know 7% 4% 4% 6%

    Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 26% optional preferential and 22% the current preferential system.

    Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (35%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (50% of aged 35-54 and 54% of aged 55+).

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Foreign Aid Budget

    Q. As far as you know, about how much of the Federal budget is spent on foreign aid?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
    Less than 1% 7% 8% 6% 15%
    About 1% 8% 10% 8% 14%
    About 2% 17% 23% 17% 12%
    About 5% 11% 8% 15% 10%
    More than 5% 16% 16% 15% 7%
    Don’t know 41% 35% 38% 42%

    27% think Australia spends 5% or more of the Federal Budget on foreign aid – 15% think it is 1% or less. The majority of respondents who gave an answer over-estimated how much Australia spends on foreign aid – the actual figure for the 2011-12 budget was 1.3%.

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  • Jul, 2011

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    Foreign Aid Spending

    Q. And do you think Australia spends too much or too little on foreign aid?

    Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Spend 1% or less Spend about 2% Spend 5% or more Don’t know spend
    Spends too much 42% 34% 52% 25% 25% 28% 66% 40%
    Spends too little 16% 20% 11% 37% 36% 25% 7% 9%
    Spends about the right amount 21% 27% 21% 21% 30% 39% 19% 13%
    Don’t know 21% 20% 15% 16% 9% 8% 8% 39%

    42% think Australia spends too much on foreign aid, 21% about the right amount and 16% too little. Opinions are strongly related to perceptions of how much is spent. Those who think Australia spends a higher % of the budget are much more likely to think the spend is too much.

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