The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report
-
2PP, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1909 respondents
First preference/leaning to Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 46% 46% 45% 45% National 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 48% 48% Labor 38.0% 32% 32% 33% 33% Greens 11.8% 10% 12% 11% 10% Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 8% 9% 9% 2PP Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 55% 55% Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 45% 45% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
-
balance of power, ER, Essential Report, Greens, Independents, Parliament, power in Parliament
Independents and Greens holding Balance of Power
Q. Do you think the independents and Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament has been good or bad for Australia?
7 Mar 11 6 Jun 2011 Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Total good 27% 28% 22% 32% 9% 72% Total bad 41% 39% 50% 30% 76% 7% Very good 7% 9% 5% 8% 1% 30% Good 20% 19% 17% 24% 8% 42% Neither good nor bad 33% 33% 28% 38% 15% 21% Bad 22% 21% 23% 22% 27% 5% Very bad 19% 18% 27% 8% 49% 2% The majority of respondents seem to regard the independents and the Greens holding the balance of power in Parliament as bad for Australia (50% bad), whilst 22% regard it is good for the country.
Enthusiasm for the independents and the Greens in federal Parliament fell 6 points since last polled in June 2011, from 28% to 22% of respondents regarding it as good for the country.
At the same time, disdain for the situation has risen considerably since June 2011: from 39% to 50% this time around.
Labor voters are almost equally split on the issue of the independents and Greens holding the balance of power, with 32% regarding it to be a good thing, and 30% viewing it as bad.
Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard the situation as bad (76%), whereas Greens voters are by far the most likely to regard it as good (72%).
Respondents aged 18-24 (38%) and 25-34 (33%) were significantly more likely to regard the situation as good.
-
ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, political trust, political truth, politicians, Politicians Lying
Politicians Lying
Q. Which statement best reflects your view:
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens When a politician makes a statement or commitment they should stick to it no matter what 17% 12% 21% 16% As situations change, it is reasonable that politicians change their positions 47% 65% 36% 61% Politicians almost always lie – it’s naive to think otherwise 36% 23% 43% 23% The most common position taken by respondents is that ‘as situations change, it is reasonable that politicians change their positions’ (47%). Labor voters are the most likely to adopt this position.
Thirty six (36%) of respondents took the view that ‘politicians almost always like – it’s naïve to think otherwise’, and Coalition voters are the most likely to take this view.
Only 17% of respondents felt that ‘when a politician make a statement or commitment they should stick to it not matter what’, with Coalition voters the most likely to adopt this view.
-
ER, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, politicians, Politicians Lie, Politicians trust, truth
Circumstances in which Politicians Lie
Q. In which of the following situations do you think it is acceptable for a politician to lie:
The most acceptable situation in which respondents condoned lying is ‘where an individual’s safety is concerned’ (43%) and ‘when the information impacts on national security’ (42%). Twenty four (24%) regard it as acceptable to lie ‘when the information impacts on the nation’s economic interests’ and 20% see it as acceptable to lie ‘when new information about a situation comes to hand’.
The most unacceptable circumstance in which a politician can lie is ‘where a change of position is required for political considerations’ (81% not acceptable).
-
2PP, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1909 respondents
First preference/leaning to Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 46% 46% 46% 45% National 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 49% 48% Labor 38.0% 30% 32% 32% 33% Greens 11.8% 11% 10% 12% 11% Other/Independent 6.6% 10% 9% 8% 9% 2PP Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 57% 56% 56% 55% Labor 50.1% 43% 44% 44% 45% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
-
2PP, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, voting, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1891 respondents
First preference/leaning to Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 46% 46% 46% 46% National 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 43.6% 49% 49% 49% 49% Labor 38.0% 32% 32% 32% 32% Greens 11.8% 10% 10% 10% 12% Other/Independent 6.6% 8% 10% 9% 8% 2PP Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 56% 56% 56% 56% Labor 50.1% 44% 44% 44% 44% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
-
balance of power, Essential Report, Federal Government, federal politics, Greens, house of representatives, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, Senate
Composition of Parliament
Q. Thinking about the Federal Government, which of the following scenarios would you prefer –
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Green One of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate 36% 36% 49% 7% One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate 21% 16% 27% 10% One of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate 16% 22% 4% 63% Don’t know 28% 26% 21% 19% Most respondents think that ‘one of the major parties having a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate’ is preferable (36%). Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to prefer this scenario (49%) and Greens voters the least likely to do so (7%). Male respondents were also more likely to prefer this scenario (40%) than female respondents (32%).
Respondents then selected ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the other having a majority in the Senate’ as their next preferred scenario (21%). Lib/Nat voters are the most likely to regard this scenario as preferable (27%).
The least favoured option amongst respondents is ‘one of the major parties having a majority in the House of Representatives and the Greens having the balance of power in the Senate’, with 16% selecting this option. Greens voters are the most likely to regard this option as the most preferable (63%).
-
2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, two party preferred, Voting intention
Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,847
First preference/leaning to Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 46% 46% 46% 46% National 4% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 43.6 50% 49% 49% 49% Labor 38.0 31% 32% 30% 32% Greens 11.8 10% 10% 11% 10% Other/Independent 6.6 9% 8% 10% 10% 2PP Election 21 Aug 10
4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 49.9% 57% 56% 57% 56% Labor 50.1% 43% 44% 43% 44% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.