Essential Report

Opinion of Tony Abbott

Aug 9, 2010

Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total gone up 27% 9% 55% 9%
Total gone down 27% 50% 4% 42%
Gone up a lot 8% 2% 18%
Gone up a little 19% 7% 37% 9%
Stayed the same 38% 36% 39% 45%
Gone down a little 11% 15% 3% 27%
Gone down a lot 16% 35% 1% 15%
Don’t know 8% 5% 2% 3%

 27% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 27% say it has gone down.

 Among Liberal/National voters 55% say their opinion has gone up and 4% say it has gone down.

 By gender – men 28% up/26% down and women 25% up/28% down. Comments »

The Punch: Gillard dumps focus groups, focus groups will like that

Aug 3, 2010

Originally published on The Punch 3/08/2010

Our Prime Minister has joined the bandwagon complaining that this is a focus group- driven election – but isn¹t this the way of the Wiki? After all, books have been written about how the wisdom of the masses provide a more compelling truth than the voice of authority.

Comments »

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 2, 2010

Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August –  to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?

2,418 sample size

First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Liberal 35% 36% 37% 37% 37%
National 3% 3% 2% 2% 2%
Total Lib/Nat 38% 39% 39% 39% 39%
Labor 45% 42% 41% 41% 40%
Greens 9% 11% 13% 13% 13%
Family First 2% 2% 2% 2% 3%
Other/Independent 6% 6% 5% 5% 5%

 

2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week

 

Total Lib/Nat 44% 46% 45% 45% 46%
Labor 56% 54% 55% 55% 54%

 NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.

* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data.   Comments »

Approval of Julia Gillard

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?

Kevin Rudd Julia Gillard
30 Mar 09 29 Jun 09 28 Sept 09 14 Dec 09 29 Mar 10 31 May 10 5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10
Total approve 71% 62% 66% 57% 53% 41% 48% 52% 49% 46%
Total disapprove 21% 29% 23% 32% 36% 47% 27% 30% 33% 38%
Strongly approve 21% 14% 15% 10% 12% 7% 14% 11% 12% 10%
Approve 50% 48% 51% 47% 41% 34% 34% 41% 37% 36%
Disapprove 14% 18% 17% 20% 22% 25% 13% 17% 19% 23%
Strongly disapprove 7% 9% 6% 12% 14% 22% 14% 13% 14% 15%
Don’t know 9% 11% 11% 10% 12% 12% 26% 18% 17% 15%

46% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 38% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 3% and disapproval increased by 5%. 87% of Labor voters approve and only 5% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 11% approve and 77% disapprove.

By gender – men 44% approve/44% disapprove and women 48% approve/33% disapprove. Comments »

Approval of Tony Abbott

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?

Malcolm Turnbull Tony Abbott
30 Nov 09 18 Jan 10 22 Feb 10 29 Mar 10 3 May 10 31 May 10 28 Jun 10 5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10
Total approve 25% 37% 45% 33% 39% 35% 40% 37% 40% 35% 38%
Total disapprove 55% 37% 36% 50% 43% 50% 39% 47% 44% 46% 48%
Strongly approve 2% 5% 12% 8% 5% 5% 9% 8% 6% 6% 8%
Approve 23% 32% 33% 25% 34% 30% 31% 29% 34% 29% 30%
Disapprove 33% 20% 20% 28% 24% 28% 20% 23% 22% 22% 27%
Strongly disapprove 22% 17% 16% 22% 19% 22% 19% 24% 22% 24% 21%
Don’t know 19% 26% 18% 16% 18% 16% 20% 16% 16% 19% 14%

38% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 48% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has increased by 3% and disapproval increased by 2%. 82% of Liberal/National voters approve and 11% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 14% approve and 78% disapprove.

By gender – men 41% approve/48% disapprove and women 35% approve/48% disapprove. Comments »

Better Prime Minister

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?

  5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens   Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott

21 Jun 10

Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 92% 7% 65%   47%
Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 1% 77% 6%   30%
Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 7% 16% 28%   23%

48% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 30% prefer Tony Abbott – a narrowing of the gap between the two (from 25% to 18%) since polled last week. This is almost identical to the last measure comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott in June.

Julia Gillard is preferred 92% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 77% to 7% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 65% to 6%.

 Men prefer Julia Gillard 46%/34% and women 50%/26%. Comments »

Reasons for Voting Preference

Aug 2, 2010

Q. What is the main reason you intend to vote for the Labor Party/Liberal or National Party/Greens?

  Labor   Liberal/ National   Greens
I always vote for the Labor Party 28% I always vote for the Liberal or National Party 19% I always vote for the Greens 8%
They have better policies 15% They have better policies 19% They have better policies 30%
They have been a good government 10% Labor have been a poor government 39% Labor have been a poor government 6%
I just don’t like the Liberals 11% I just don’t like Labor 9% I just don’t like the Liberals or Labor 28%
Julia Gillard is a better leader than Tony Abbott 32% Tony Abbott is a better leader than Julia Gillard 7% I like Bob Brown 3%
Other reason 4% Other reason 5% I don’t like Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard 14%
        Other reason 10%

Main reasons for voting Labor were a preference for Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott (32%) and party loyalty (28% said they always vote Labor). The leadership issue is more important for women – 40% of women said they were voting Labor because Julia Gillard is a better leader compared to 23% of men.

39% of Liberal/National voters say their main reason is that Labor have been a poor Government – and only 7% say leadership is their main reason.

Main reasons for voting for the Greens were “better policies” (30%) and a dislike of the major parties (28%). Only 6% say it is because Labor have been a poor Government. Comments »

The Senate

Aug 2, 2010

Q. Regardless of which party is elected to Government (i.e. has a majority in the House of Representatives), which of the following Senate options do you think would be best for Australia?

  Total Vote Labor Vote Liberal/ National Vote Greens
The Government has a majority in the Senate 29% 41% 33% 5%
The Opposition party has a majority in the Senate 10% 3% 21% 2%
The Greens and the independents (like Xenophon and Fielding) together hold the balance of power in the Senate 27% 25% 27% 35%
The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate 12% 14% 3% 50%
Don’t know 22% 18% 16% 7%

 Opinions about the balance of power in the Senate are mixed. 29% prefer the Government to have a majority and 27% prefer the Greens and independents combined to hold the balance of power. Only 12% want the Greens on their own to hold the balance of power and 10% would prefer the opposition to have a majority. Overall, 39% want one of the major parties to have a majority and 39% want minor parties to hold the balance of power.

 85% of Greens voters want the Greens or Greens and independents to hold the balance of power compared to 39% of Labor voters and 30% of Liberal/National voters. Comments »

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