Abbott, Approval of opposition leader, Liberal
Q. Since the election was called has your opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party gone up or down?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total gone up | 27% | 9% | 55% | 9% |
| Total gone down | 27% | 50% | 4% | 42% |
| Gone up a lot | 8% | 2% | 18% | – |
| Gone up a little | 19% | 7% | 37% | 9% |
| Stayed the same | 38% | 36% | 39% | 45% |
| Gone down a little | 11% | 15% | 3% | 27% |
| Gone down a lot | 16% | 35% | 1% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 8% | 5% | 2% | 3% |
27% say their opinion of Tony Abbott and the Liberal Party has gone up during the election campaign and 27% say it has gone down.
Among Liberal/National voters 55% say their opinion has gone up and 4% say it has gone down.
By gender – men 28% up/26% down and women 25% up/28% down. Comments »
Focus Groups, Gillard, peter lewis, The Punch
Originally published on The Punch 3/08/2010
Our Prime Minister has joined the bandwagon complaining that this is a focus group- driven election – but isn¹t this the way of the Wiki? After all, books have been written about how the wisdom of the masses provide a more compelling truth than the voice of authority.
Q. The Federal Election will be held on 21 August – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know – Well which party are you currently leaning to for the House of Representatives?
2,418 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 35% | 36% | 37% | 37% | 37% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 38% | 39% | 39% | 39% | 39% |
| Labor | 45% | 42% | 41% | 41% | 40% |
| Greens | 9% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 13% |
| Family First | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Other/Independent | 6% | 6% | 5% | 5% | 5% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 44% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 46% |
| Labor | 56% | 54% | 55% | 55% | 54% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* Sample is the aggregation of two weeks’ polling data. Comments »
Gillard, Gillard's performance, Prime Minister
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | |||||||||
| 30 Mar 09 | 29 Jun 09 | 28 Sept 09 | 14 Dec 09 | 29 Mar 10 | 31 May 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | |
| Total approve | 71% | 62% | 66% | 57% | 53% | 41% | 48% | 52% | 49% | 46% |
| Total disapprove | 21% | 29% | 23% | 32% | 36% | 47% | 27% | 30% | 33% | 38% |
| Strongly approve | 21% | 14% | 15% | 10% | 12% | 7% | 14% | 11% | 12% | 10% |
| Approve | 50% | 48% | 51% | 47% | 41% | 34% | 34% | 41% | 37% | 36% |
| Disapprove | 14% | 18% | 17% | 20% | 22% | 25% | 13% | 17% | 19% | 23% |
| Strongly disapprove | 7% | 9% | 6% | 12% | 14% | 22% | 14% | 13% | 14% | 15% |
| Don’t know | 9% | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 12% | 26% | 18% | 17% | 15% |
46% approve Julia Gillard’s performance as Prime Minister and 38% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has decreased by 3% and disapproval increased by 5%. 87% of Labor voters approve and only 5% disapprove. Among Liberal/National voters, 11% approve and 77% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/44% disapprove and women 48% approve/33% disapprove. Comments »
Abbott, Approval of opposition leader
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| Malcolm Turnbull | Tony Abbott | ||||||||||
| 30 Nov 09 | 18 Jan 10 | 22 Feb 10 | 29 Mar 10 | 3 May 10 | 31 May 10 | 28 Jun 10 | 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | |
| Total approve | 25% | 37% | 45% | 33% | 39% | 35% | 40% | 37% | 40% | 35% | 38% |
| Total disapprove | 55% | 37% | 36% | 50% | 43% | 50% | 39% | 47% | 44% | 46% | 48% |
| Strongly approve | 2% | 5% | 12% | 8% | 5% | 5% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 6% | 8% |
| Approve | 23% | 32% | 33% | 25% | 34% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 29% | 30% |
| Disapprove | 33% | 20% | 20% | 28% | 24% | 28% | 20% | 23% | 22% | 22% | 27% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 17% | 16% | 22% | 19% | 22% | 19% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 21% |
| Don’t know | 19% | 26% | 18% | 16% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 14% |
38% approve Tony Abbott’s performance as Opposition Leader and 48% disapprove. Since this question was asked last week, approval has increased by 3% and disapproval increased by 2%. 82% of Liberal/National voters approve and 11% disapprove. Among Labor voters, 14% approve and 78% disapprove.
By gender – men 41% approve/48% disapprove and women 35% approve/48% disapprove. Comments »
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 10 | 19 Jul 10 | 26 Jul 10 | 2 Aug 10 | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 50% | 51% | 48% | 92% | 7% | 65% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 1% | 77% | 6% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 23% | 23% | 22% | 7% | 16% | 28% | 23% |
48% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 30% prefer Tony Abbott – a narrowing of the gap between the two (from 25% to 18%) since polled last week. This is almost identical to the last measure comparing Kevin Rudd and Tony Abbott in June.
Julia Gillard is preferred 92% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 77% to 7% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 65% to 6%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 46%/34% and women 50%/26%. Comments »
Abbott, Bob Brown, Gillard, Labor, Liberal, Policy, Reason for voting, Voting intention
Q. What is the main reason you intend to vote for the Labor Party/Liberal or National Party/Greens?
| Labor | Liberal/ National | Greens | |||
| I always vote for the Labor Party | 28% | I always vote for the Liberal or National Party | 19% | I always vote for the Greens | 8% |
| They have better policies | 15% | They have better policies | 19% | They have better policies | 30% |
| They have been a good government | 10% | Labor have been a poor government | 39% | Labor have been a poor government | 6% |
| I just don’t like the Liberals | 11% | I just don’t like Labor | 9% | I just don’t like the Liberals or Labor | 28% |
| Julia Gillard is a better leader than Tony Abbott | 32% | Tony Abbott is a better leader than Julia Gillard | 7% | I like Bob Brown | 3% |
| Other reason | 4% | Other reason | 5% | I don’t like Tony Abbott or Julia Gillard | 14% |
| Other reason | 10% |
Main reasons for voting Labor were a preference for Julia Gillard over Tony Abbott (32%) and party loyalty (28% said they always vote Labor). The leadership issue is more important for women – 40% of women said they were voting Labor because Julia Gillard is a better leader compared to 23% of men.
39% of Liberal/National voters say their main reason is that Labor have been a poor Government – and only 7% say leadership is their main reason.
Main reasons for voting for the Greens were “better policies” (30%) and a dislike of the major parties (28%). Only 6% say it is because Labor have been a poor Government. Comments »
Greens, Labor, Liberal, Senate, Voting intention
Q. Regardless of which party is elected to Government (i.e. has a majority in the House of Representatives), which of the following Senate options do you think would be best for Australia?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Liberal/ National | Vote Greens | |
| The Government has a majority in the Senate | 29% | 41% | 33% | 5% |
| The Opposition party has a majority in the Senate | 10% | 3% | 21% | 2% |
| The Greens and the independents (like Xenophon and Fielding) together hold the balance of power in the Senate | 27% | 25% | 27% | 35% |
| The Greens hold the balance of power in the Senate | 12% | 14% | 3% | 50% |
| Don’t know | 22% | 18% | 16% | 7% |
Opinions about the balance of power in the Senate are mixed. 29% prefer the Government to have a majority and 27% prefer the Greens and independents combined to hold the balance of power. Only 12% want the Greens on their own to hold the balance of power and 10% would prefer the opposition to have a majority. Overall, 39% want one of the major parties to have a majority and 39% want minor parties to hold the balance of power.
85% of Greens voters want the Greens or Greens and independents to hold the balance of power compared to 39% of Labor voters and 30% of Liberal/National voters. Comments »