The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report
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Need for a New Election
Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Yes 52% 48% 65% 45% No 33% 38% 25% 35% Don’t know 15% 14% 10% 20% 52% think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 33% disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (65%) although all voter types are more likely to support another election than oppose it. Women (yes 53%/no 29%) are more likely to support another election than men (50%/38%). Comments »
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New Election – Likely Winner
Q. And if Australia had another Federal election in the next 12 months, which party do you expect would win that election?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Labor 35% 76% 2% 48% Liberal/National 39% 4% 83% 11% Don’t know 25% 20% 15% 41% Expectations about which party would win another election are divided – and closely follow party preferences. 39% think the Coalition would win and 35% think Labor would win. Comments »
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New Election – Change in Vote
Q. If another election was held in the next 12 months would you vote for the same party or might you change your vote?
Total Voted Labor Voted Lib/Nat Voted Greens Vote for the same party 72% 76% 84% 62% Might change my vote 16% 16% 11% 28% Definitely change my vote 1% 1% 2% 1% Don’t know 11% 7% 4% 8% 72% say they would vote for the same party if another election was held and 17% think they may change their vote. Liberal/National voters are least likely to change their vote (13%), while Greens voters are most likely (29%). 22% of voters aged under 35 said they may change their vote compared to only 13% of those aged 55+. Comments »
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Election, EMC, peter lewis, The Punch
The Punch: This election was not the ranga revolution predicted
First Published on The Punch 31/08/2010
When the political history of 2010 is written, every element of the closest election in a generation will be rightly scrutinized. The winning side will get home by a hair’s breadth but could it be hair that determines the result?
Because there is a minority group whose natural connection with their chief advocate did not translate into votes on August 22 Australia’s rangas turned on Julia Gillard at the moment she needed their support most.Exclusive hair-based research from the Punch shows that redheads turned their locks away from Gillard, being the least likely hair coloured group to support the ALP.
Source: Essential Media Communications
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Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2246 sample size
First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 37% 37% 41% 42% 41% National 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 40% 39% 44% 45% 44% Labor 42% 40% 39% 38% 38% Greens 9% 13% 10% 11% 11% Family First 2% 3% 2% 2% 2% Other/Independent 7% 5% 5% 4% 5% 2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 47% 46% 49% 50% 50% Labor 53% 54% 51% 50% 50% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
* These results do not include the special ER pre-election poll. Comments »
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When Voting Decision Made
Q. When did you make your decision about which party to vote for in last week’s Federal election?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens More than 4 weeks before the election 55% 60% 65% 38% 2-4 weeks before the election 15% 15% 16% 19% In the last week before the election 9% 8% 9% 15% The day before the election 3% 4% 1% 5% The day of the election but before I went to vote 5% 4% 4% 9% When I got to the polling booth 9% 6% 4% 12% Don’t know 3% 2% 1% 2% More than half the respondents had decided their vote more than 4 weeks before the election. 27% decided during the election campaign before polling day and 14% only decided on polling day (9% when they got to the polling booth). Greens voters were most likely to delay making their decision, with 21% saying they only decided on the day of the election. 25% of those who voted for independents or other parties only decided when they got to the polling booth.
Older voters decided earlier than younger voters – 67% of those aged 55+ decided more than 4 weeks before the election compared to 43% of under 35’s. 19% of under 35’s decided on the day of the election compared to only 6% of aged 55+. Comments »
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Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Ag 10 30 Aug Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott21 Jun 10 Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 46% 94% 3% 66% 47% Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 36% 1% 83% 8% 30% Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 4% 14% 26% 23% 46% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 36% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to previous poll.
Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 83% to 3% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 66% to 8%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 44%/41% and women 48%/32%. Comments »
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The Punch: Yes we will: remembering a campaign that never was
First Published on The Punch 24/08/2010
What a great night to be Labor. As the Party swept back into office with a mandate to lead global action on climate change it seemed like the entire nation had grown a few inches taller.
Winning smile….if only. Photo: Gary Ramage
The energy on the ground made the excitement of Kevin 07’s electoral triumph seem like a mere entrée to the main, as thousands of young people on booths around Australia literally enthused swinging voters into embracing the future.