The Essential Report Archive Read the latest report
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Better PM, Better Prime Minister, Election
Better Prime Minister
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
5 Jul 10 19 Jul 10 26 Jul 10 2 Aug 10 9 Aug 10 16 Aug 10 20 Sep 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott 21 Jun 10
Julia Gillard 53% 50% 51% 48% 45% 46% 47% 94% 6% 74% 47% Tony Abbott 26% 27% 26% 30% 33% 35% 35% 1% 78% 4% 30% Don’t know 21% 23% 23% 22% 21% 19% 18% 5% 15% 22% 23 47% think Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 35% prefer Tony Abbott – a similar margin to last month.
Julia Gillard is preferred 94% to 1% by Labor voters – and Tony Abbott is preferred 78% to 6% by Liberal/National voters. Greens voters prefer Julia Gillard 74% to 4%.
Men prefer Julia Gillard 44%/39% and women 50%/31%.
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New Election
Q. How likely is it that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months?
6 Sep 10 20 Sep 10 Total likely 70% 59% Total unlikely 16% 28% Very likely 27% 23% Quite likely 43% 36% Not very likely 13% 22% Not at all likely 3% 6% Don’t know 14% 13% 59% of respondents (down 11% from 2 weeks ago) think it likely that Australia will need to have another Federal election within the next 12 months and 28% (up 12%) think it is unlikely. Labor voters are evenly divided (42% likely/42% unlikely) but 83% of Coalition voters think it is likely and only 11% unlikely.
Q. Do you think Australia should have another Federal election in the next 12 months?
6 Sep 10 20 Sep 10 Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Yes 52% 43% 17% 75% 11% No 33% 43% 71% 14% 75% Don’t know 15% 14% 12% 11% 14% 43% (down 9%) think that Australia should have another election in the next 12 months and 43% (up 10%) disagree. Support for another election is strongest among Liberal/National voters (75%) but other voters oppose it.
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Election, Independents, Independents in parliament
Independents in Parliament
Q. Do you think there should be more or fewer independents in Federal Parliament?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote other Should be more 29% 29% 21% 58% 65% Should be fewer 26% 21% 40% 5% 7% About the right number 23% 32% 19% 19% 14% Don’t know 22% 19% 20% 17% 14% Respondents are divided over whether there should be more or fewer independents in Parliament – 29% say more, 26% fewer and 23% think there is about the right number. 40% of Coalition voters think there should be fewer and a majority of Greens and other voters think there should be more.
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Election, election reporting, media rating, politics in the media
Rating the Media
Q. Overall, how would you rate the media (newspapers, TV, radio, internet) for their reporting of Federal politics – thinking about their coverage both before and after the election?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Total good 32% 35% 37% 20% Total poor 23% 23% 18% 37% Very good 7% 8% 7% 2% Good 25% 27% 30% 18% Average 40% 37% 43% 37% Poor 9% 7% 9% 13% Very poor 14% 16% 9% 24% Don’t know 6% 5% 2% 6% 32% think media reporting of Federal politics has been good, 23% poor and 40% average. Greens voters are most likely to think it has been poor (37%).
Q. Overall, do you think media reporting – both before and after the election – favoured the Labor Party, favoured the Liberal and National parties or gave fair coverage of all parties?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens
Favoured the Labor Party 23% 12% 39% 9% Favoured the Liberal and National parties 17% 27% 8% 29% Gave fair coverage of all parties 44% 49% 42% 43% Don’t know 17% 11% 12% 18% 23% think media reporting favoured the Labor Party and 17% think it favoured the Liberal and National parties – while 44% think it gave fair coverage to all parties. 39% of Coalition voters thought the media favoured the Labor Party – compared to 27% of Labor voters thinking it favoured the Coalition.
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The Punch: 10 handy stress-relief tips for furious Aussie conservatives
First Published on The Punch 14/09/2010
As a long-suffering leftie, I thought it was just my fragile ego that was picking up an increase in the intensity of the bucketing I have been receiving from my Punch fan club in recent weeks.
Australia, in happier times.
But now we have statistical evidence to prove that the federal election has transformed average Liberal voters from mildly dysfunctional union–baiters into feral class warriors who want to tear down a system that no longer works for them.
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Federal politics – voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
2,062 sample size
First preference/leaning to 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Liberal 35% 41% 41% 40% 41% National 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% Total Lib/Nat 38% 44% 44% 43% 44% Labor 45% 39% 38% 39% 39% Greens 9% 10% 11% 11% 10% Family First 2% 2% 2% 2% 1% Other/Independent 6% 5% 5% 6% 5% 2PP 6 months ago 4 weeks ago 2 weeks ago Last week This week Total Lib/Nat 44% 49% 50% 49% 50% Labor 56% 51% 50% 51% 50% NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election. Comments »
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Performance of Parties and Politicians
Q. How would you rate the performance of the following parties and politicians since the election?
Total good Total poor Very good Good Average Poor Very poor Labor Party 38% 34% 12% 26% 28% 26% 8% Liberal and National Parties 40% 31% 10% 30% 30% 22% 9% The Greens 28% 39% 5% 23% 33% 28% 11% The independents 27% 42% 5% 22% 31% 31% 11% Respondents rated the performance of the Coalition parties since the election a little higher than that of the Labor Party. The Coalition parties were rated 40% good/31% poor compared to Labor’s 38% good/34% poor.
Ratings of the Greens (28% good/39% poor) and the independents (27%/42%) were both negative.
In terms of party preferences, 78% of Labor voters rated Labor good, 70% of Coalition voters rated the Coalition parties good and 71% of Greens voters rated the Greens good. Voters for independents and other parties were split on the performance of the independents – 37% good/30% poor.
45% of Labor voters rated the independents’ performance as good and 58% of Coalition voters rated them poor. Comments »
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Election, Independents, Minority Government
Approval of Independents Decisions
Q. Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the decisions the independents have reached about which party they will support?
Total Vote Labor Vote Lib/Nat Vote Greens Vote ind/other Total approve 41% 82% 5% 72% 40% Total disapprove 45% 6% 89% 14% 34% Strongly approve 12% 29% * 15% 3% Approve 29% 53% 5% 57% 37% Disapprove 20% 5% 35% 11% 18% Strongly disapprove 25% 1% 54% 3% 16% Don’t know 14% 12% 5% 14% 27% Respondents were split over the independents’ decision about the party to support – 41% approve and 45% disapprove.
82% of Labor voters and 72% of Greens voters approve while 89% of Coalition voters disapprove (and 54% strongly disapprove). Voters for independents and other parties split 40% approve/34% disapprove. Comments »