Congressional elections, DCCC, Democratic campaign, Democrats, GOP, Obama Administration, Obamacare, Vic Fingerhut, voter choice
EMC’s consulting pollster Vic Fingerhut has penned this memo to Democrats in the lead-up to Congressional elections. His words of wisdom ring true here too.
***
Despite the feel good messages from the Democratic campaign committees, if messaging frames and context of voter choice on election day remain as they are today, we are heading for disaster.
Two weeks ago, I sent you a memo underlining the fact that while our opponents have a simple and clear frame for the short-term issues in the current election, we have had none.
And despite the millions spent on our side…nothing has changed.
afghanistan, ALP, EMC, Essential Report, peter lewis, The Drum, Troops in Afghanistan, war in Afghanistan
First Published on The Drum 12/10/2010
Attempting to manage public confidence in the war in Afghanistan, the Labor Party is exposing its left flank in a way that calls into question three decades of political centrism.
These are challenging times for the ALP, with minority control in Canberra, hand-wringing election post mortems and flagging state administrations around the nation. A key theme appears to be ‘Labor has lost its way’.
But what is the ALP way? Since at least the Whitlam era, Labor orthodoxy has been that the occupation of the centre ground was a precondition for electoral success. Careers were built on the tough work of shifting Labor from ideological dogma to more pragmatic policies.
2PP, Election, Federal Election, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
1,912 sample size
| First preference/leaning to | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Liberal | 37% | 41% | 40% | 42% | 42% |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| Total Lib/Nat | 40% | 44% | 43% | 44% | 44% |
| Labor | 41% | 39% | 42% | 42% | 41% |
| Greens | 11% | 10% | 9% | 8% | 8% |
| Other/Independent | 8% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 7% |
| 2PP | 6 months ago | 4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week
|
| Total Lib/Nat | 46% | 50% | 49% | 49% | 49% |
| Labor | 54% | 50% | 51% | 51% | 51% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2007 election.
Australian jobs, climate change, Election Issues, management of the economy, protection of local industries, quality education for all children, quality of Australia’s health system, quality water supply
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
| One | Two | Three | Total | Total 10th May 10 | Total 25th Jan 10 | |
| Management of the economy | 38% | 15% | 9% | 62% | 62% | 63% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 6% | 12% | 14% | 32% | 19% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 14% | 21% | 13% | 48% | 50% | 48% |
| Protecting the environment | 3% | 4% | 5% | 12% | 13% | 16% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 3% | 5% | 3% | 11% | 10% | * |
| Political leadership | 6% | 5% | 5% | 16% | 12% | 23% |
| Addressing climate change | 4% | 3% | 4% | 11% | 12% | 16% |
| Controlling interest rates | 4% | 6% | 7% | 17% | 16% | 15% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 8% | 10% | 12% | 30% | 29% | 33% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 1% | 3% | 2% | 6% | 7% | 12% |
| Housing affordability | 5% | 4% | 8% | 17% | 17% | 14% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 4% | 5% | 7% | 16% | 17% | 14% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 1% | 2% | 3% | 6% | 7% | 9% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 1% | 2% | 2% | 5% | * | * |
| Managing population growth | 2% | 3% | 5% | 10% | 14% | * |
*Not asked
62% of people surveyed rate management of the economy as one of their three most important issues, followed by 48% ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system, 32% ensuring a quality education for all children and 30% Australian jobs and protection of local industries.
Only 11% rate addressing climate change as one of their three most important issues and 6% rate ensuring a quality water supply. The major change since the previous survey in May, was an increase in the importance of ensuring a quality education for all children from 19% to 32%.
asylum seekers, climate change, controlling interest rates, Election Issues, fair industrial relations system, management of the economy, population growth, protecting the environment, quality education for all children, quality of Australia’s health system
Q. Which are the three most important issues in deciding how you would vote at a Federal election? (Number from 1 to 3 where 1 is the most important, 2 the second most important, etc)
| Total | Labor | Liberal | Green | |
| Management of the economy | 62% | 59% | 74% | 46% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 32% | 37% | 26% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 48% | 53% | 47% | 43% |
| Protecting the environment | 12% | 12% | 8% | 27% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 11% | 18% | 6% | 14% |
| Political leadership | 16% | 16% | 17% | 10% |
| Addressing climate change | 11% | 15% | 4% | 35% |
| Controlling interest rates | 17% | 11% | 22% | 12% |
| Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 30% | 34% | 27% | 15% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 6% | 4% | 8% | 13% |
| Housing affordability | 17% | 12% | 16% | 20% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 16% | 12% | 20% | 16% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 6% | 3% | 8% | 2% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 5% | 3% | 5% | 10% |
| Managing population growth | 10% | 7% | 13% | 9% |
Labor voters are more likely to rate ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system (53%), ensuring a quality education for all children (37%) and a fair industrial relations system (18%) as important.
Liberal/National voters attach more importance to management of the economy (74%) and controlling interest rates (22%) while Greens voters are more likely to nominate addressing climate change (35%) and protecting the environment (27%).
controlling interest rates, Election Issues, fair industrial relations system, management of the economy, quality education for all children, Security, war on terrorism
Q. And which party would you trust most to handle the following issues?
| Labor | Liberal | Greens | Don’t know | |
| Management of the economy | 37% | 42% | 2% | 19% |
| Ensuring a quality education for all children | 42% | 31% | 4% | 23% |
| Ensuring the quality of Australia’s health system | 36% | 35% | 5% | 25% |
| Protecting the environment | 19% | 20% | 40% | 21% |
| A fair industrial relations system | 44% | 30% | 4% | 22% |
| Political leadership | 34% | 36% | 5% | 25% |
| Addressing climate change | 21% | 22% | 31% | 26% |
| Controlling interest rates | 28% | 42% | 2% | 29% |
| Protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries | 41% | 33% | 3% | 23% |
| Ensuring a quality water supply | 24% | 27% | 21% | 29% |
| Housing affordability | 31% | 31% | 4% | 34% |
| Ensuring a fair taxation system | 35% | 35% | 3% | 28% |
| Security and the war on terrorism | 27% | 35% | 4% | 34% |
| Treatment of asylum seekers | 26% | 33% | 9% | 33% |
| Standing up for regular Australian working families | 44% | 28% | 4% | 23% |
| Managing population growth | 28% | 33% | 7% | 33% |
| Making sure Australian working people got fair treatment at their workplace | 45% | 29% | 3% | 23% |
Labor is trusted most to handle a fair industrial relations system (44%), ensuring a quality education for all children (42%) and protecting Australian jobs and protection of local industries (41%).
The Liberals are trusted most to handle management of the economy (42%), controlling interest rates (42%) and security and the war on terrorism (35%).
afghanistan, Afghanistan War, Australian Military, Australian troops, Troops in Afghanistan
Q. Thinking about the Australian troops in Afghanistan, do you think Australia should –
| Total
11 Oct 10 |
Labor | Liberal | Greens | 21 June 10 | March 09 | ||
| Increase the number of troops in Afghanistan | 13% | 10% | 20% | 6% | 7% | 14% | |
| Keep the same number of troops in Afghanistan | 24% | 26% | 29% | 14% | 24% | 24% | |
| Withdraw our troops from Afghanistan | 49% | 50% | 41% | 73% | 61% | 50% | |
| Don’t know | 14% | 14% | 10% | 7% | 8% | 12% |
49% of respondents believe Australia should withdraw our troops from Afghanistan, 24% think we should keep the same number and 13% think the numbers should be increased.
Support for withdrawal has dropped from the 61% recorded in June but is similar to the result recorded in March last year.
50% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters support withdrawal but 49% of Liberal/National voters favour maintaining or increasing the number of troops.
afghanistan, Afghanistan War, Al Qaeda, Australian involvement in Afghanistan, Australian Military
Q. Here are some reasons which are given for continuing to have Australian involvement in the war in Afghanistan. For each one could you tell me whether you think that is a very good reason, a fairly good reason, or not really a good reason at all.
| Very good reason | Fairly good reason | Not a good reason at all | Don’t know | |
| To fight Al Qaeda and terrorism | 34% | 33% | 25% | 8% |
| To maintain our strategic alliance with the US | 11% | 36% | 45% | 8% |
| To build democracy in Afghanistan | 30% | 35% | 25% | 9% |
| To further human rights in Afghanistan, such as the rights of women | 43% | 32% | 17% | 8% |
| Total very good reason | Labor | Liberal | Greens | |
| To fight Al Qaeda and terrorism | 34% | 35% | 44% | 11% |
| To maintain our strategic alliance with the US | 11% | 12% | 14% | 7% |
| To build democracy in Afghanistan | 30% | 34% | 34% | 16% |
| To further human rights in Afghanistan, such as the rights of women | 43% | 48% | 45% | 38% |
Respondents believe the best reasons for continuing Australian involvement in Afghanistan are to further human rights such as the rights of women (43%) and to fight Al Qaeda and terrorism (34%).
Liberal/National voters are more inclined to nominate fighting Al Qaeda and terrorism (44%) while Labor voters are more likely to think furthering human rights in Afghanistan, such as the rights of women (48%) is a very good reason.