2PP, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, two party preferred, voting, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
sample size = 1,899
| First preference/leaning to | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Liberal | 44% | 45% | 46% | 47% | |
| National | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | |
| Total Lib/Nat | 43.6 | 46% | 48% | 49% | 50% |
| Labor | 38.0 | 34% | 32% | 32% | 30% |
| Greens | 11.8 | 12% | 11% | 11% | 11% |
| Other/Independent | 6.6 | 8% | 9% | 9% | 9% |
| 2PP | Election
21 Aug 10 |
4 weeks ago | 2 weeks ago | Last week | This week |
| Total Lib/Nat | 49.9% | 54% | 55% | 56% | 57% |
| Labor | 50.1% | 46% | 45% | 44% | 43% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
approval of PM, Essential Report, Gillard, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, rudd
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister?
| Kevin Rudd | Julia Gillard | ||||||||||
| 31 May
2010 |
19 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | |
| Total approve | 41% | 52% | 45% | 43% | 51% | 48% | 41% | 37% | 41% | 34% | 29% |
| Total disapprove | 47% | 30% | 37% | 40% | 36% | 41% | 46% | 50% | 48% | 54% | 62% |
| Strongly approve | 7% | 11% | 12% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 5% |
| Approve | 34% | 41% | 33% | 33% | 43% | 39% | 34% | 30% | 34% | 28% | 24% |
| Disapprove | 25% | 17% | 21% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 26% | 29% | 30% |
| Strongly disapprove | 22% | 13% | 16% | 16% | 12% | 16% | 24% | 25% | 22% | 25% | 32% |
| Don’t know | 12% | 18% | 19% | 17% | 14% | 11% | 13% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 9% |
29% (down 5%) approve of the job Julia Gillard is doing as Prime Minister and 62% (up 8%) disapprove – a change in net rating from -20 to -33 over the last 4 weeks.
72% of Labor voters approve (down 4%) and 20% disapprove (up 6%).
By gender – men 31% approve/63% disapprove, women 28% approve/61% disapprove.
Approval of opposition leader, Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, tony abbott
Q. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader?
| 18 Jan
2010 |
29 Mar | 5 Jul | 20 Sep | 20 Dec | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | |
| Total approve | 37% | 33% | 37% | 43% | 39% | 42% | 38% | 38% | 36% | 42% | 38% | 39% |
| Total disapprove | 37% | 50% | 47% | 37% | 39% | 37% | 46% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 48% | 49% |
| Strongly approve | 5% | 8% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 7% | 8% | 7% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 6% |
| Approve | 32% | 25% | 29% | 31% | 30% | 35% | 30% | 31% | 29% | 34% | 32% | 33% |
| Disapprove | 20% | 28% | 23% | 21% | 21% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 25% | 25% | 24% |
| Strongly disapprove | 17% | 22% | 24% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 22% | 23% | 23% | 19% | 23% | 25% |
| Don’t know | 26% | 16% | 16% | 19% | 22% | 20% | 16% | 16% | 17% | 14% | 15% | 11% |
39% (up 1%) approve of the job Tony Abbott is doing as Opposition Leader and 49% (up 1%) disapprove – no change in net rating (-10%) over the last 4 weeks.
73% of Coalition voters approve and 19% disapprove.
By gender – men 44% approve/48% disapprove, women 35% approve/51% disapprove.
Essential Report, federal politics, Greens, Julia Gillard, kevin rudd, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, preferred PM, Prime Minister, tony abbott
Q. Who do you think would make the better Prime Minister out of Julia Gillard and Tony Abbott?
| 5 Jul 2010 | 17 Jan 2011 | 14 Feb | 14 Mar | 11 Apr | 9 May | 14 June | 11 July | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | Kevin Rudd v Tony Abbott
21 Jun 10 |
||
| Julia Gillard | 53% | 47% | 48% | 44% | 42% | 43% | 41% | 37% | 85% | 6% | 68% | 47% | |
| Tony Abbott | 26% | 32% | 31% | 33% | 33% | 35% | 36% | 39% | 5% | 75% | 9% | 30% | |
| Don’t know | 21% | 21% | 20% | 23% | 24% | 22% | 24% | 24% | 10% | 19% | 24% | 23% |
37% believe Julia Gillard would make the better Prime Minister and 39% prefer Tony Abbott – the first time that Tony Abbott has been preferred over Julia Gillard – a net decrease for Julia Gillard of 7% on last month’s figures (from +5% to -2%).
Men prefer Tony Abbott 42%/36% and women favour Julia Gillard 38%/36%.
carbon pollution, Carbon Pricing, Carbon Pricing Proposal, Carbon Tax, climate change, Essential Report, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. Do you support or oppose the Government’s proposal to introduce a carbon pricing scheme from 1 July 2012, which will require industries to pay a tax based on the amount of carbon pollution they emit?
| 7 March | 14 March | 28 March | 18 April | 23 May | 30 May | 14 June | 11 July | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total support | 35% | 38% | 34% | 39% | 41% | 38% | 38% | 35% | 65% | 15% | 73% |
| Total oppose | 48% | 49% | 51% | 49% | 44% | 48% | 49% | 53% | 20% | 79% | 21% |
| Strongly support | 9% | 12% | 12% | 13% | 14% | 14% | 13% | 11% | 23% | 3% | 35% |
| Support | 26% | 26% | 22% | 26% | 27% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 42% | 12% | 38% |
| Oppose | 19% | 17% | 19% | 15% | 15% | 19% | 19% | 19% | 15% | 23% | 16% |
| Strongly oppose | 29% | 32% | 32% | 34% | 29% | 29% | 30% | 34% | 5% | 56% | 5% |
| Don’t know | 18% | 13% | 15% | 12% | 15% | 15% | 13% | 12% | 16% | 7% | 7% |
35% (down 3%) support the Government’s proposed carbon pricing scheme and 53% (up 4%) oppose. It is supported by 65% of Labor voters and 73% of Greens voters but opposed by 79% of coalition voters.
By age, those aged under 35 split 40% support/43% oppose, and those aged 55+ split 33% support/59% oppose.
Election, Essential Report, federal politics, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, voting system
Q. If voting at elections was voluntary (i.e. not compulsory) – how likely would you be to vote in the next Federal election?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Total definitely/probably vote | 82% | 85% | 89% | 78% |
| Total definitely/probably not vote | 14% | 12% | 9% | 19% |
| Would definitely vote | 59% | 62% | 65% | 61% |
| Would probably vote | 23% | 23% | 24% | 17% |
| Probably wouldn’t vote | 10% | 8% | 7% | 18% |
| Definitely wouldn’t vote | 4% | 4% | 2% | 1% |
| Don’t know | 4% | 3% | 1% | 3% |
82% said they would definitely or probably vote if voting was voluntary. 14% said they definitely or probably would not vote.
Coalition and Labor voters were more likely to vote and Greens voters somewhat less likely.
By age, 73% of those aged under 35 said they would vote compared to 82% of those aged 35-54 and 91% of those aged 55+.
The estimated vote excluding those who would probably or definitely not vote produces a first preference vote of 52% Liberal/National, 30% Labor, 11% Greens and 7% other. The two-party preferred estimate is 58% Liberal/National and 42% Labor (compared to the current estimate of 57%/43%) – suggesting that voluntary voting would only very slightly advantage the Coalition.
Essential Report, Greens, house of representatives, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls, voting, voting system
Q. Which of the following voting systems would you prefer when voting for the Federal House of Representatives.
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Preferential | 22% | 31% | 18% | 30% |
| Optional preferential | 26% | 26% | 24% | 33% |
| First past the post | 44% | 40% | 53% | 31% |
| Don’t know | 7% | 4% | 4% | 6% |
Of the three voting options given, 44% favoured “first past the post”, 26% optional preferential and 22% the current preferential system.
Optional preferential was most preferred by those aged under 35 (35%) while older groups strongly favoured first past the post (50% of aged 35-54 and 54% of aged 55+).
Essential Report, foreign aid, Government spending, Greens, Labor, Liberal, Nationals, Polling, polls
Q. As far as you know, about how much of the Federal budget is spent on foreign aid?
| Total | Vote Labor | Vote Lib/Nat | Vote Greens | |
| Less than 1% | 7% | 8% | 6% | 15% |
| About 1% | 8% | 10% | 8% | 14% |
| About 2% | 17% | 23% | 17% | 12% |
| About 5% | 11% | 8% | 15% | 10% |
| More than 5% | 16% | 16% | 15% | 7% |
| Don’t know | 41% | 35% | 38% | 42% |
27% think Australia spends 5% or more of the Federal Budget on foreign aid – 15% think it is 1% or less. The majority of respondents who gave an answer over-estimated how much Australia spends on foreign aid – the actual figure for the 2011-12 budget was 1.3%.