Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,856 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal

 

40%

41%

40%

41%

National

3%

3%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

38%

40%

38%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

10%

8%

9%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

52%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

Total

19 Aug

Total

26 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

54%

57%

63%

39%

20%

44%

46%

47%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

27%

25%

25%

39%

33%

30%

32%

30%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

15%

14%

9%

17%

39%

21%

17%

18%

Don’t know

4%

4%

3%

6%

8%

5%

5%

4%

54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.

Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 26, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,795 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal

 

41%

40%

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

44%

43%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

39%

39%

40%

38%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

8%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

10%

8%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

51%

50%

50%

Labor

50.1%

49%

49%

50%

50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Aug 26, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

Total

19 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

47%

46%

60%

26%

22%

44%

46%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

30%

32%

26%

38%

33%

30%

32%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

18%

17%

11%

30%

41%

21%

17%

Don’t know

4%

5%

3%

6%

5%

5%

5%

47% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 18% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents little change since this question was asked a week ago.

Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (30%), other party and independent voters (41%) and aged 25-34 (25%).

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 19, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,902 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

22/7/13

2 weeks ago

5/8/13

Last week

13/8/13

This week

19/8/13

Liberal

 

42%

40%

40%

41%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

45%

43%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

39%

38%

39%

40%

Greens

11.8%

7%

9%

8%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

9%

10%

10%

8%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

22/7/13

2 weeks ago

5/8/13

Last week

13/8/13

This week

19/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

51%

51%

50%

Labor

50.1%

49%

49%

49%

50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Aug 19, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

46%

45%

56%

27%

16%

44%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

32%

33%

28%

37%

38%

30%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

17%

16%

11%

24%

44%

21%

Don’t know

5%

6%

4%

12%

2%

5%

46% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 32% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 17% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a firming of voting intention since this question was asked two weeks ago.

Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (24%), other party and independent voters (44%) and aged 25-34 (25%).

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 13, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,899 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

15/7/13

2 weeks ago

29/7/13

Last week

5/8/13

This week

13/8/13

Liberal

 

42%

41%

40%

40%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

46%

44%

43%

43%

Labor

38.0%

39%

39%

38%

39%

Greens

11.8%

7%

9%

9%

8%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

8%

10%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

15/7/13

2 weeks ago

29/7/13

Last week

5/8/13

This week

13/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

52%

51%

51%

51%

Labor

50.1%

48%

49%

49%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 5, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,903 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

8/7/13

2 weeks ago

23/7/13

Last week

29/7/13

This week

5/8/13

Liberal

 

42%

42%

41%

40%

National

4%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

46%

45%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

38%

39%

39%

38%

Greens

11.8%

8%

7%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

6.6%

7%

9%

8%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

8/7/13

2 weeks ago

23/7/13

Last week

29/7/13

This week

5/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

52%

51%

51%

51%

Labor

50.1%

48%

49%

49%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

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