02 September 2013, 020913, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,856 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal |
|
40% |
41% |
40% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
2% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
38% |
40% |
38% |
35% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
8% |
11% |
11% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
10% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
2 weeks ago 19/8/13 |
Last week 26/8/13 |
This week 2/9/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
52% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
48% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
02 September 2013, 020913, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
Total 19 Aug |
Total 26 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
54% |
57% |
63% |
39% |
20% |
44% |
46% |
47% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
27% |
25% |
25% |
39% |
33% |
30% |
32% |
30% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
15% |
14% |
9% |
17% |
39% |
21% |
17% |
18% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
4% |
3% |
6% |
8% |
5% |
5% |
4% |
54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.
Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.
26 August 2013, 260813, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,795 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
Last week 19/8/13 |
This week 26/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
41% |
40% |
41% |
40% |
|
| National |
3% |
3% |
3% |
2% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
44% |
43% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
39% |
39% |
40% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
11% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 13/8/13 |
Last week 19/8/13 |
This week 26/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
51% |
50% |
50% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
26 August 2013, 260813, firmess of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
Total 19 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
47% |
46% |
60% |
26% |
22% |
44% |
46% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
30% |
32% |
26% |
38% |
33% |
30% |
32% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
18% |
17% |
11% |
30% |
41% |
21% |
17% |
||
| Don’t know |
4% |
5% |
3% |
6% |
5% |
5% |
5% |
47% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 30% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 18% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents little change since this question was asked a week ago.
Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (30%), other party and independent voters (41%) and aged 25-34 (25%).
19 August 2013, 190813, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,902 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 22/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
Last week 13/8/13 |
This week 19/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
40% |
40% |
41% |
|
| National |
|
3% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
45% |
43% |
43% |
44% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
39% |
38% |
39% |
40% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
9% |
10% |
10% |
8% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 22/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 5/8/13 |
Last week 13/8/13 |
This week 19/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
51% |
51% |
51% |
50% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
50% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
19 August 2013, 190813, firmness of vote, Voting intention
Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election to be held this year?
|
Total Gave voting intention |
|
Vote Labor |
Vote Lib/Nat |
Vote Greens |
Other party/ Independent |
|
Total 5 Aug |
|
| I will definitely not change my mind |
46% |
45% |
56% |
27% |
16% |
44% |
||
| It is very unlikely I will change my mind |
32% |
33% |
28% |
37% |
38% |
30% |
||
| It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops |
17% |
16% |
11% |
24% |
44% |
21% |
||
| Don’t know |
5% |
6% |
4% |
12% |
2% |
5% |
46% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 32% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 17% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a firming of voting intention since this question was asked two weeks ago.
Those most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind were Greens voters (24%), other party and independent voters (44%) and aged 25-34 (25%).
130813, 2PP, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,899 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 15/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
Last week 5/8/13 |
This week 13/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
41% |
40% |
40% |
|
| National |
|
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
|
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
46% |
44% |
43% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
39% |
39% |
38% |
39% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
8% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
8% |
8% |
10% |
10% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 15/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 29/7/13 |
Last week 5/8/13 |
This week 13/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
52% |
51% |
51% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.
050813, 2PP, 5 August 2013, Greens, Labor Party, Liberal Party, two party preferred, Voting intention
Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?
Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?
Sample size = 1,903 respondents
| First preference/leaning to |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 23/7/13 |
Last week 29/7/13 |
This week 5/8/13 |
| Liberal |
|
42% |
42% |
41% |
40% |
|
| National |
4% |
3% |
3% |
3% |
||
| Total Lib/Nat |
43.6% |
46% |
45% |
44% |
43% |
|
| Labor |
38.0% |
38% |
39% |
39% |
38% |
|
| Greens |
11.8% |
8% |
7% |
9% |
9% |
|
| Other/Independent |
6.6% |
7% |
9% |
8% |
10% |
| 2 Party Preferred |
Election 21 Aug 10 |
|
4 weeks ago 8/7/13 |
2 weeks ago 23/7/13 |
Last week 29/7/13 |
This week 5/8/13 |
| Liberal National |
49.9% |
52% |
51% |
51% |
51% |
|
| Labor |
50.1% |
48% |
49% |
49% |
49% |
NB. The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions. Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results. The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.