Federal politics – voting intention

Oct 1, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,908 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

2/9/13

2 weeks ago

16/9/13

Last week

24/9/13

This week

1/10/13

Liberal

 

41%

42%

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.5%

44%

44%

43%

43%

Labor

33.4%

35%

36%

37%

36%

Greens

8.7%

11%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

12.4%

10%

11%

11%

12%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

2/9/13

2 weeks ago

16/9/13

Last week

24/9/13

This week

1/10/13

Liberal National

53.4%

52%

53%

51%

52%

Labor

46.6%

48%

47%

49%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 24, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,886 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

26/8/13

2 weeks ago

9/9/13

Last week

16/9/13

This week

23/9/13

Liberal

 

40%

41%

42%

41%

National

2%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

43%

45%

44%

43%

Labor

33.4%

38%

35%

36%

37%

Greens

8.6%

11%

9%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

12.4%

9%

12%

11%

11%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

26/8/13

2 weeks ago

9/9/13

Last week

16/9/13

This week

23/9/13

Liberal National

53.4%

50%

53%

53%

51%

Labor

46.6%

50%

47%

47%

49%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 16, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,864 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

7 Sep 13

(current  figures)

 

4 weeks ago

19/8/13

2 weeks ago

2/9/13

Last week

9/9/13

This week

16/9/13

Liberal

 

41%

41%

41%

42%

National

3%

3%

3%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

45.6%

44%

44%

45%

44%

Labor

33.6%

40%

35%

35%

36%

Greens

8.4%

8%

11%

9%

9%

Other/Independent

12.4%

8%

10%

12%

11%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

7 Sep 13

 

4 weeks ago

19/8/13

2 weeks ago

2/9/13

Last week

9/9/13

This week

16/9/13

Liberal National

53.4%

50%

52%

53%

53%

Labor

46.6%

50%

48%

47%

47%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 5, 2013

Q. The Federal Election will be held next weekend on 7 September  – to which party will you probably give your first preference in the House of Representatives? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

The table below shows weekly figures through the election campaign.

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

5/8/13

13/8/13

19/8/13

26/8/13

2/9/13

5/9/13

 

 

Liberal National

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

43%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

37%

41%

39%

36%

35%

35%

Greens

11.8%

10%

7%

9%

11%

10%

10%

Other/Independent

6.6%

11%

9%

8%

10%

11%

12%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

5/8/13

13/8/13

19/8/13

26/8/13

2/9/13

5/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

51%

53%

52%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

49%

47%

48%

Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Sep 5, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

5 Aug

19 Aug

26 Aug

2 Sep

I will definitely not change my mind

54%

54%

63%

42%

29%

44%

46%

47%

54%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

27%

29%

22%

32%

32%

30%

32%

30%

27%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

15%

14%

12%

18%

30%

21%

17%

18%

15%

Don’t know

4%

3%

3%

9%

9%

5%

5%

4%

4%

54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change.

Other party and independent voters (30%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

Federal politics – voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,856 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal

 

40%

41%

40%

41%

National

3%

3%

2%

3%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

43%

44%

43%

44%

Labor

38.0%

38%

40%

38%

35%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

11%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

10%

8%

9%

10%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

5/8/13

2 weeks ago

19/8/13

Last week

26/8/13

This week

2/9/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

50%

50%

52%

Labor

50.1%

49%

50%

50%

48%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Firmness of voting intention

Sep 2, 2013

Q. How likely is it that you will change your mind about who you vote for before the Federal election?

 

Total

Gave voting intention

 

Vote Labor

Vote Lib/Nat

Vote Greens

Other party/ Independent

 

Total

5 Aug

Total

19 Aug

Total

26 Aug

I will definitely not change my mind

54%

57%

63%

39%

20%

44%

46%

47%

It is very unlikely I will change my mind

27%

25%

25%

39%

33%

30%

32%

30%

It is quite possible I will change my mind as the campaign develops

15%

14%

9%

17%

39%

21%

17%

18%

Don’t know

4%

4%

3%

6%

8%

5%

5%

4%

54% of those who gave their voting intention say they will definitely not change their mind before the election, 27% say it is very unlikely they will change their mind and 15% say it is quite possible they will change. This represents a significant increase in certainty about voting over the last week.

Other party and independent voters (39%) were most likely to say it is possible they will change their mind.

Federal politics – voting intention

Aug 26, 2013

Q. If a Federal Election was held today to which party will you probably give your first preference vote? If not sure, which party are you currently leaning toward?

Q. If don’t know -Well which party are you currently leaning to?

Sample size = 1,795 respondents

First preference/leaning to

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal

 

41%

40%

41%

40%

National

3%

3%

3%

2%

Total Lib/Nat

43.6%

44%

43%

44%

43%

Labor

38.0%

39%

39%

40%

38%

Greens

11.8%

9%

8%

8%

11%

Other/Independent

6.6%

8%

10%

8%

9%

 

2 Party Preferred

Election

21 Aug 10

 

4 weeks ago

29/7/13

2 weeks ago

13/8/13

Last week

19/8/13

This week

26/8/13

Liberal National

49.9%

51%

51%

50%

50%

Labor

50.1%

49%

49%

50%

50%

NB.  The data in the above tables comprise 2-week averages derived from the first preference/leaning to voting questions.  Respondents who select ‘don’t know’ are not included in the results.  The two-party preferred estimate is calculated by distributing the votes of the other parties according to their preferences at the 2010 election.

Pages:«1...567891011...33»

COVID-19 RESEARCH

Read Essential's ongoing research on the public response to Covid-19.

Download this week's Report

Sign up for updates

Receive the Essential Report in your inbox.
  • This field is for validation purposes and should be left unchanged.